US Dollar Stalling at Resistance, S&P 500 at Risk of Downturn
THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to stall at technical resistance while S&P 500 positioning continues to hint prices are vulnerable to a reversal downward.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing falling trend line resistance at 10473, with a break higher exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10518. Near-term support is at 10420, the 23.6% retracement level. A drop beneath that aims for the 38.2% mark at 10324.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1565.60, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposingthe 1575.10-76.10 area marked by the 50% Fib and the index’s record high. A break above that aims for the 61.8% level at 1584.50. Negative RSI divergence continues to warn of a forthcoming reversal however. The 1565.60 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back below that eyeing the March 18 low at 1534.90.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing at a rising trend line set from late February (1595.41), with a break lower targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.17. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1637.49.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% expansion, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 96.08. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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