A Rising Share Price Has Us Looking Closely At China Overseas Property Holdings Limited's (HKG:2669) P/E Ratio

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It's great to see China Overseas Property Holdings (HKG:2669) shareholders have their patience rewarded with a 32% share price pop in the last month. That's tops off a massive gain of 111% in the last year.

All else being equal, a sharp share price increase should make a stock less attractive to potential investors. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. So some would prefer to hold off buying when there is a lot of optimism towards a stock. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E ratio means that investors have a high expectation about future growth, while a low P/E ratio means they have low expectations about future growth.

View our latest analysis for China Overseas Property Holdings

How Does China Overseas Property Holdings's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?

We can tell from its P/E ratio of 48.19 that there is some investor optimism about China Overseas Property Holdings. As you can see below, China Overseas Property Holdings has a much higher P/E than the average company (6.4) in the real estate industry.

SEHK:2669 Price Estimation Relative to Market, March 1st 2020
SEHK:2669 Price Estimation Relative to Market, March 1st 2020

Its relatively high P/E ratio indicates that China Overseas Property Holdings shareholders think it will perform better than other companies in its industry classification. Clearly the market expects growth, but it isn't guaranteed. So investors should delve deeper. I like to check if company insiders have been buying or selling.

How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios

P/E ratios primarily reflect market expectations around earnings growth rates. If earnings are growing quickly, then the 'E' in the equation will increase faster than it would otherwise. That means unless the share price increases, the P/E will reduce in a few years. A lower P/E should indicate the stock is cheap relative to others -- and that may attract buyers.

It's great to see that China Overseas Property Holdings grew EPS by 17% in the last year. And its annual EPS growth rate over 5 years is 38%. This could arguably justify a relatively high P/E ratio.

Remember: P/E Ratios Don't Consider The Balance Sheet

Don't forget that the P/E ratio considers market capitalization. In other words, it does not consider any debt or cash that the company may have on the balance sheet. Hypothetically, a company could reduce its future P/E ratio by spending its cash (or taking on debt) to achieve higher earnings.

While growth expenditure doesn't always pay off, the point is that it is a good option to have; but one that the P/E ratio ignores.

So What Does China Overseas Property Holdings's Balance Sheet Tell Us?

China Overseas Property Holdings has net cash of HK$2.1b. This is fairly high at 10% of its market capitalization. That might mean balance sheet strength is important to the business, but should also help push the P/E a bit higher than it would otherwise be.

The Verdict On China Overseas Property Holdings's P/E Ratio

China Overseas Property Holdings trades on a P/E ratio of 48.2, which is multiples above its market average of 9.6. Its net cash position supports a higher P/E ratio, as does its solid recent earnings growth. Therefore it seems reasonable that the market would have relatively high expectations of the company What we know for sure is that investors have become much more excited about China Overseas Property Holdings recently, since they have pushed its P/E ratio from 36.5 to 48.2 over the last month. If you like to buy stocks that have recently impressed the market, then this one might be a candidate; but if you prefer to invest when there is 'blood in the streets', then you may feel the opportunity has passed.

Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about. If the reality for a company is better than it expects, you can make money by buying and holding for the long term. So this free visual report on analyst forecasts could hold the key to an excellent investment decision.

You might be able to find a better buy than China Overseas Property Holdings. If you want a selection of possible winners, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20 (but have proven they can grow earnings).

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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