Economic conditions are right for workers in Hampton Roads and across the country to continue making real gains in how much they earn, Old Dominion University economists said.

When adjusted for inflation and seasonal patterns, U.S. average hourly wages increased 0.8% from December 2022 to December 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For those in production and nonsupervisory roles (about 80% of the nonfarm workforce), wages increased around 1.1%.

ODU economist Bob McNab said conditions are right for this trend to continue in 2024.

“We’ve seen sustained demand for labor by employers,” McNab said. “Job openings remain above pre-pandemic levels.”

Virginia job openings reached around 249,000 in November — above the roughly 220,000 openings in the beginning of 2020, according to federal labor data.

Since the supply of labor is also constrained, McNab said workers should be able to translate conditions into higher wages.

He and fellow economist Vinod Agarwal delivered their 2024 economic predictions Wednesday during an annual forecast event at ODU.

Home owners and prospective buyers will also have reason to celebrate in 2024, McNab said, predicting 30-year mortgage rates would decrease from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024.

Recency bias may be affecting opinions about mortgage rates, Agarwal said, because while rates are high compared with the pandemic-era lows of less than 3%, they are still much lower than rates in the 1980s of above 15%.

The economists predicted Hampton Roads’ gross domestic product would increase around 2.1% this year, following last year’s 2.6% estimated growth. They predicted the regional unemployment rate would continue to hover around 3.2%. McNab said the inflation rate would continue to decline from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.8% this year.

Uncertainty in Washington, D.C., regarding spending bills or a wider Middle East conflict could upend those rosy projections, McNab warned.

“At some point, we need Congress to do their job,” he said. “I don’t care whose party you’re in. They just need to do their job and pass appropriations bills.”

Trevor Metcalfe, 757-222-5345, trevor.metcalfe@pilotonline.com