June 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Hot Growth Summer
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 18.6% year-over-year in June (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 16.8% in May.
Annual growth was up from April in both the 20-city index (to 19.1%, from 17.1%) and 10-city index (to 18.5% from 16.6%).
Phoenix (+9.3%), San Diego (27.1%) and Seattle (+25.0%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
The slow rise in inventory that marked the beginning of summer wasn’t enough to cool the sizzling market, with the already rapidly rising Case-Shiller indices hitting the gas accelerating into the middle of the year instead of tapping the brakes.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 18.6% year-over-year in June. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (19.1%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (18.5%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in June than in May in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.8% from May, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.6% and 1.8% month-over-month, respectively.
Zillow Forecast, Released 7/27/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, | Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
10-City Composite, | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
10-City Composite, | 18.6% | 18.5% | 0.2% |
20-City Composite, | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
20-City Composite, | 19.1% | 19.1% | 0.1% |
U.S. National | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
U.S. National | 19.1% | 18.6% | 0.1% |
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
Demand for housing continues to far outweigh the supply of homes for sale: Competition remains elevated, and homes are still going under contract more than a week faster than they were a year ago. But despite the enduring market competition, more-recent data indicate that the scalding hot housing market may have cooled slightly in recent weeks. The number of for-sale homes has risen meaningfully since the early spring and the increased listings have appeared to bring some balance back to the market. Sales volumes that were falling sequentially in the spring have recently leveled off and price growth has simultaneously softened. All told, home price growth remains sky high, but more signals are appearing that the housing market is likely to soon start coming back to earth.
Monthly and annual growth in July as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from June and May 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, September 28.
Index | Actual June | Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller July Indices |
|---|---|---|
10-City Composite, | 1.6% | 2.0% |
10-City Composite, | 18.5% | 19.5% |
20-City Composite, | 1.8% | 2.1% |
20-City Composite, | 19.1% | 20.3% |
U.S. National | 1.8% | 2.0% |
U.S. National | 18.6% | 20.1% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
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