Collective Intelligence!

Snippets: william_blount. (08:04) fed or no fed, china or no china, russia or no russia — the table is set: we are at a JUMP BALL and we will break 1844.5 over the next 2 to 4 days or kill 1884 cash and go after new all time highs. *She’s got the whole world in her hands, she’s got the whole wide world in her hands — SETTING UP THE JUMP BALL william_blount (13:01) 1873.25 NEW YELL < write it down! the importance of the YELL is: WHO GETS TRAPPED.

‘Tiptoeing’ past today’s Fed statement: Art Cashin of UBS Financial Services tells CNBC’s Bob Pisani why the June Federal Reserve meeting could see some real “action.” http://www.cnbc.com/id/101629269

Today started with 208k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1866.25 – 1873.75. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPM pit session trading range was 1875.00 – 1865.50 before settling at 1871.80, up 5.8 handles. Strong ADP jobs report, weak GDP … Roger (07:32) GDP growth misses by an order of magnitude: 0.1% vs. 1.1% expected. stockmarketwhisperer (07:36) yowza all that QE and GDP that low? here come the weather excuses.. Astro is crazier today… very volatile…no positives until closer to 9am PT and it doesnt last very long. Downside energy first …esp 7:25ish PT. Stephen GDP data worse than appears in 2013 bogus rule changes now counts R&D expenses and other items as part of GDP, blaming weather for sub-par growth is absurd!
Advance Q1 GDP +0.1% nowhere near expectations of +1.1% in MNI survey and likely due to effect of harsh winter. Chain price index +1.3%. Slowdown in economic activity reflected larger drags from exports (-7.6%) and nonresidential fixed investment (-2.8%), while the change in private inventories subtracted 0.6 percentage point from economic activity and net exports subtracted 0.8 percentage point. There was also a deceleration in consumer spending, with PCE +3.0% vs +3.3% in Q4’13. Government spending and residential investment were again subtractions from GDP but not as large as the previous quarter. The downturn in state and local gov spending (-1.3%) was offset by +0.7% federal gov investment. Imports -1.6%.

william_blount (08:29) spill odds 79 for the down … Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 2.5 handles lower to opening range 1869.00 – 1869.30, first 15 min… 1870.50 / 1868.20 when Chicago PMI checked in at 63.0 vs exp of 56.7 spoos rallied to a new high of 1871.70 before fading back to a new low of 1867.20. william_blount (08:54) 1866.25 YELL overnight low – bears need to kill 1863ish. Chicagostock (08:55) CASH OPENS BELOW 1872, TURNS INTO RESISTANCE (current low 1873.05). [SPY] http://stks.co/b0UmQ

william_blount (13:01) 1873.25 THE NEW YELL = last price trading on the FOMC / Yellen announcement

PivotBoss Midday Update http://bit.ly/SbuHmy Updated ADR http://bit.ly/1kpP86R

Post FOMC william_blount chart says must break 1870 to use 73.25 s risk marker. Raphael (13:12) converting 73 and going after 82 is their preferred offensive plan and the bears want : put a capper at 1877-78, trounce 73 and go Wile E Coyote on1844.5
The MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, showed a modest buy imbalance before flipping to a moderate $485M to SELL going into the cash close. The futures were trading 1877.50 area on the cash close before settling at 1877.9 0, up 6.1 handles on the day. E-mini volume on the day was 1.5M with the VIX going out at 13.41, down 30 ticks on the day.

Eco calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ This week we have more earnings, BOJ decision, GDP, FOMC decision and the BLS jobs data.

Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 220,000 in April after a modestly weaker-than-expected 192,000 increase in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.6% after holding steady at 6.7% in March on proportional gains in household employment and unemployment. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%
in April after holding steady in March, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours after a sharp rebound in March. Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands) Friday, May 2 at 8:30 a.m.ET.

Median Range Responses Apr14 Mar14 Feb14
Payrolls +220k +180k to +250k 16 — +192k +197k
Private Jobs +210k +180k to +250k 12 — +192k +188k
Jobless Rate 6.6% 6.6% to 6.6% 15 — 6.7% 6.7%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% Flat to +0.3% 13 — Flat +0.4%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.4 to 34.5 9 — 34.5 34.3

What happened last 2 NFP #s? Will be interesting to see if people want to be long again into the next number. So maybe a front run of sellers into next friday, then instead of peak high we get a peak low – Chicagostock.