U.S losses from flooding will rise 26.4% by 2050 as a result of climate change, according to a study published Monday.

Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers from Britain and the United States said their modeling shows that the annual cost of flooding will climb from an average of $32.1 billion to nearly $41 billion over the next three decades.

While the highest flood risk is currently in “both the most White and the most impoverished communities across the nation,” the researchers said that increased risks will disproportionately affect Black communities and stay concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. And, they say, their projections are essentially locked in — meaning that they still hold “even if dramatic decarbonization is undertaken immediately.”

The researchers write that their findings indicate that the United States needs to improve its flood risk management, “restricting new developments in the highest-risk areas, coupled with stronger building codes.” On top of that, the country will need to invest in relocation and retrofitting programs in high-risk areas. “The federal government has several programmes that currently fund such efforts,” they write, “although not at levels that will be required to fully adapt to increasing risk.”

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