Volatility 101: Should Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) Shares Have Dropped 32%?

In this article:

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Unfortunately the Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) share price slid 32% over twelve months. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 20%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 25% in the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Check out our latest analysis for Sandfire Resources

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unfortunately Sandfire Resources reported an EPS drop of 16% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 32% share price fall. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 7.82.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ASX:SFR Past and Future Earnings, February 11th 2020
ASX:SFR Past and Future Earnings, February 11th 2020

This free interactive report on Sandfire Resources's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Sandfire Resources the TSR over the last year was -30%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Sandfire Resources shareholders are down 30% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 20%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5.4% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Sandfire Resources that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

Advertisement