US Dollar Threatens Support Break, S&P 500 Hints at Reversal
THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is flirting with a bearish breakout while S&P 500 technical positioning warns a significant top may be in place below the index’s record high.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing below support at 10420, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that exposes the 38.2% level at 10324. Near-term falling trend line resistance is at 10468, with a reversal back above that eying the 23.6% Fib expansion at 10518.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 1576.10, the index’s record high, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1537.20, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% level at 1516.70.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at a rising trend line set from late February (1596.62), with a break lower initially targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.17. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1636.16.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% level, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 96.03. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Want to back-test your technical trading strategy? Download the historical data here.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE
New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.