Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Lower U.S. Production Key to Sustaining Rally
U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures put in a stellar performance last week. Profit-taking and short-covering gave the market a firm tone early in the week after a prolonged move down in time and price drove prices into their lowest level in 10-months the previous week.
At the mid-week, prices were supported by friendly U.S. production data and at the end of the week, a drop in the rig count helped send prices higher.
For the week, August West Texas Intermediate crude oil settled at $46.04, up $3.03 or +7.04% and September Brent crude oil closed at $48.77, up $3.02 or +6.60%.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories edged up the week-ending June 23 while gasoline stocks decreased.
The EIA report showed crude inventories rose 118,000 compared with forecasts for a 2.6 million-barrel decrease, as imports rose 129,000 barrels per day and refinery runs fell 262,000 bpd.
The report also showed gasoline stocks fell 894,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a 583,000-barrel drop. However, current gasoline inventories of 241 million barrels remain about 7.5 percent higher than the seasonal average for stocks over the past five years.
Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, futures delivery hub for U.S. crude fell 297,000 barrels, the EIA said.
Most importantly, U.S. production fell 100,000 bpd to 9.25 million bpd. And refinery utilization rates fell 1.5 percentage points to 92.5 percent of operable capacity, EIA data showed.
In other news, the U.S. Dollar fell to a multi-month low, making dollar-denominated crude oil less-expensive for foreign buyers. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 27 to the lowest since late September, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Finally, U.S. drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to June 30, the total rig count of 756 is still more than double the count the same week a year ago, Banker Hughes said on Friday.
Forecast
The ingredients were there for a rally and investors responded by taking oil prices higher. Money managers had been cleared out of their net long positions, the dollar fell, the rig count declined and most of all, U.S. production dropped 100,000 bpd to 9.25 million bpd.
Technically, the objective this week for August WTI crude is $47.14 to $48.34. Since the trend is down on the weekly chart, sellers are likely to show up on a test of this zone. The sellers could be profit-takers or new shorts.
The key to sustaining the rally will be the U.S. production number. If the EIA report shows another drop in production then look for the rally to continue beyond $48.34. If production rises, prices will fall.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire