Is Now The Right Time To Invest In Basic Materials And Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML)?

Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML), a AUD$74.01M small-cap, operates in the basic materials industry which supplies materials for construction. This means it is highly sensitive to changes in the economic cycle, a key driver of building activities. Furthermore, the basic materials sector can be affected by shifts in the housing market, as many produced raw materials are components of construction projects. For example, if new housing development slows, the demand for metal products may also decrease. Basic material analysts are forecasting for the entire industry, a strong double-digit growth of 22 percent in the upcoming year, and a whopping growth of 32 percent over the next couple of years. This rate is larger than the growth rate of the Australian stock market as a whole. Is now the right time to pick up some shares in metals and mining companies? Today, I will analyse the industry outlook, and also determine whether FML is a laggard or leader relative to its basic materials sector peers. See our latest analysis for FML

What’s the catalyst for FML's sector growth?

ASX:FML Future Profit Sep 26th 17
ASX:FML Future Profit Sep 26th 17

As a whole, the basic materials sector seems like it has reached maturity in its life cycle. Companies appear to be highly competitive and consolidation seems to be a common theme. However, the industry is still facing many emerging trends including the reduction of waste, raw material inflation, and innovation in global supply chain management. In the past year, the industry delivered growth in the teens, beating the Australian market growth of 6 percent. FML lags the pack with its negative growth rate of -352 percent over the past year, which indicates the company has been growing at a slower pace than its metals and mining peers. As the company trails the rest of the industry in terms of growth, FML may also be a cheaper stock relative to its peers.

Is FML and the sector relatively cheap?

ASX:FML PE PEG Gauge Sep 26th 17
ASX:FML PE PEG Gauge Sep 26th 17

The metals and mining industry is trading at a PE ratio of 19 times, in-line with the Australian stock market PE of 22 times. This illustrates a fairly valued sector relative to the rest of the market, indicating low mispricing opportunities. However, the industry returned a lower 12 percent compared to the market’s 16 percent, potentially indicative of past headwinds. Since FML’s earnings doesn’t seem to reflect its true value, its PE ratio isn’t very useful. A loose alternative to gauge FML’s value is to assume the stock should be relatively in-line with its industry.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? FML has been a metals and mining industry laggard in the past year. If your initial investment thesis is around the growth prospects of FML, there are other metals and mining companies that have delivered higher growth, and perhaps trading at a discount to the industry average. Consider how FML fits into your wider portfolio and the opportunity cost of holding onto the stock.

Are you a potential investor? If FML has been on your watchlist for a while, now may be a good time to dig deeper into the stock. Although its growth has delivered lower growth relative to its metals and mining peers in the near term, the market may be pessimistic on the stock, leading to a potential undervaluation. Before you make a decision on the stock, I suggest you look at FML’s future cash flows in order to assess whether the stock is trading at a reasonable price.

For a deeper dive into Focus Minerals's stock, take a look at the company's latest free analysis report to find out more on its financial health and other fundamentals. Interested in other basic materials stocks instead? Use our free playform to see my list of over 2000 other basic materials companies trading on the market.


To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.

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