Investors Who Bought Ngai Hing Hong (HKG:1047) Shares Three Years Ago Are Now Down 54%

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If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But long term Ngai Hing Hong Company Limited (HKG:1047) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. So they might be feeling emotional about the 54% share price collapse, in that time. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 41% lower in that time.

See our latest analysis for Ngai Hing Hong

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, Ngai Hing Hong's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 29% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 23% compound annual share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

SEHK:1047 Past and Future Earnings April 20th 2020
SEHK:1047 Past and Future Earnings April 20th 2020

This free interactive report on Ngai Hing Hong's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Ngai Hing Hong's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Ngai Hing Hong shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 50%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Ngai Hing Hong shareholders are down 41% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 15%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Ngai Hing Hong (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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