American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on American Eagle Outfitters’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for American Eagle Outfitters

What's the opportunity in American Eagle Outfitters?

According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 16.08x is currently well-above the industry average of 10.97x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since American Eagle Outfitters’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will American Eagle Outfitters generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. American Eagle Outfitters' earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 93%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? AEO’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe AEO should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on AEO for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for AEO, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that American Eagle Outfitters has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.

If you are no longer interested in American Eagle Outfitters, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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