Imagine Owning Wuling Motors Holdings (HKG:305) While The Price Tanked 55%

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If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But long term Wuling Motors Holdings Limited (HKG:305) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Sadly for them, the share price is down 55% in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 28%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 3.7%.

See our latest analysis for Wuling Motors Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Wuling Motors Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 46% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 23% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:305 Past and Future Earnings, February 3rd 2020
SEHK:305 Past and Future Earnings, February 3rd 2020

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Wuling Motors Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was -53%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 5.2% in the twelve months, Wuling Motors Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 27% (even including dividends) . However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Wuling Motors Holdings has 6 warning signs (and 2 which don't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

Wuling Motors Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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