Imagine Owning Ridley (ASX:RIC) While The Price Tanked 50%

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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Ridley Corporation Limited (ASX:RIC) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 50% in three years, versus a market decline of about 7.3%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 44% lower in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 24% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 21% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

View our latest analysis for Ridley

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Ridley saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 40% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 21% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ASX:RIC Past and Future Earnings May 26th 2020
ASX:RIC Past and Future Earnings May 26th 2020

This free interactive report on Ridley's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Ridley's TSR for the last 3 years was -45%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 12% in the twelve months, Ridley shareholders did even worse, losing 41% (even including dividends) . However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6.5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Ridley you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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