German American Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:GABC) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues came in 3.2% below expectations, at US$61m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.64 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for German American Bancorp

Following the latest results, German American Bancorp's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$251.5m in 2024. This would be a modest 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 10% to US$2.56 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$253.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.58 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$35.50, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on German American Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$37.00 and the most bearish at US$34.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting German American Bancorp is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that German American Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than German American Bancorp.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on German American Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple German American Bancorp analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for German American Bancorp you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.