Oct. 11—The most startling fact about the tilt-up warehouse being built at 5408 Express Ave. in Shafter isn't its immense size, at 1.06 million square feet, or that it's virtually surrounded on three sides by almond orchards. It's the fact that the building still has no tenant.

But in the heat of Kern's industrial property market, even that distinction wasn't enough to raise an eyebrow at an open house at the site Wednesday. Turns out the building being put up next door by a different developer also remains unclaimed — and no one seems to doubt that takers will soon snatch them both up.

Such is the state of the county's logistics industry that it's no longer uncommon to see speculative development, normally one of the riskiest activities in real estate, in which millions of dollars and months of work are invested in an edifice being constructed for no one in particular.

The opinion of some who attended Wednesday's event was that Kern's industrial market, with an ultra-low vacancy rate of about 2%, is so competitive that developers almost can't go wrong.

Executive Vice President Rick John of Los Angeles-based Daum Commercial stepped away from the barbecue buffet at Wednesday's open house to point out that three important factors play in favor of the building being built on Express by Corona-based Rexco Development. They are these: existing infrastructure, convenient freeway access and local government that's amenable to warehousing.

He emphasized the value of the last of those three when the time comes for construction permitting.

"We don't have that in the Inland Empire," John said. "It's a challenge to get entitlements in Southern California."

Director Scott Reynolds at Cushman & Wakefield in Bakersfield added an ingredient John didn't mention — price. Leasing costs in the Inland Empire stand at about $1.50 to $1.75 per square feet, whereas in Kern, they range from 68 to 75 cents per square foot.

Plus, he said, Kern has what might be considered a location advantage over all of Southern California. The county is close to the state's population center, which expands the geographical reach of local truck drivers who make one-day, out-and-back deliveries.

But neither price nor location matter if there's no one available to work in Rexco's new warehouse, because Shafter's a long drive from Ontario. As Senior Vice President Wesley McDonald at Bakersfield's ASU Commercial said last week, cost is important "but it's not the driving force" — labor is.

He recently put together an analysis of the Kern County industrial market that points out, among other local benefits, that farmworkers tend to take easily to logistics work.

"Farm labor allows for an easy transition to warehouse employment as the employee is generally very disciplined, hard-working (and) used to working long hours," McDonald wrote.

"The transition becomes appreciate by the employees as they are no longer exposed to the elements of being outdoor, including heat, exhaustion and cold."

What's more, he wrote, warehousing jobs have posted a 12.4% increase in annual wages in the last five years, compared with 1.3% for all other industries.

Rexco's project, located adjacent to Shafter's massive Wonderful Industrial Park, adds to a list of spec developments pending around Kern.

McDonald's report noted that Rexco plans to complete a two-building, 700,000-square-foot project next year off Lerdo Highway and Carsen Way in Shafter. Meanwhile, Wonderful expects to finish a 415,000-square-foot spec building at its Shafter industrial park, and possibly another 1 million-square-foot spec building that McDonald reported is yet to be confirmed.

It's not just Shafter, either. The Tejon Ranch Commerce Center along Interstate 5 near the Grapevine is the site of a 1.1 million-square-foot spec building being developed by a pair of Texas companies. And a Santa Monica developer who for years has been active around Meadows Field Airport in Oildale has moved forward with a series of spec buildings next to the giant Amazon distribution center.

Reynolds predicted Rexco's building on Express will lease out within the next six months as Ontario's burgeoning logistics industry more or less maxes out. But he added that spec development is never a sure thing, and in some ways is a big gamble.

But he said it remains a pretty good bet in Kern.

"If you're going to do it," Reynolds said, "now's the time to do it."