Shareholders might have noticed that Emerald Holding, Inc. (NYSE:EEX) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$5.70 in the past week. Revenues beat expectations, coming in 4.9% ahead of forecasts, and the company broke even on a statutory earnings per share (EPS) level. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Emerald Holding

Following the latest results, Emerald Holding's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$422.1m in 2024. This would be a modest 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.46 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$419.7m and losses of US$0.45 per share in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to its losses per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$9.43, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Emerald Holding at US$11.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.20. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Emerald Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.7% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Emerald Holding to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Emerald Holding going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Emerald Holding (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.