Did You Manage To Avoid Pact Group Holdings's (ASX:PGH) Painful 61% Share Price Drop?

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If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But long term Pact Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:PGH) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Sadly for them, the share price is down 61% in that time. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 29% lower in that time. Unhappily, the share price slid 1.6% in the last week.

View our latest analysis for Pact Group Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the three years that the share price declined, Pact Group Holdings's earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. Extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ASX:PGH Past and Future Earnings, November 3rd 2019
ASX:PGH Past and Future Earnings, November 3rd 2019

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Pact Group Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Pact Group Holdings's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Pact Group Holdings's TSR, which was a 57% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Pact Group Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 29%, against a market gain of about 19%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6.0% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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