Did Harvia Oyj's (HEL:HARVIA) Share Price Deserve to Gain 58%?

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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. For example, the Harvia Oyj (HEL:HARVIA) share price is up 58% in the last year, clearly besting the market return of around 9.5% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. We'll need to follow Harvia Oyj for a while to get a better sense of its share price trend, since it hasn't been listed for particularly long.

See our latest analysis for Harvia Oyj

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Harvia Oyj was able to grow EPS by 37% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 58% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

HLSE:HARVIA Past and Future Earnings, February 1st 2020
HLSE:HARVIA Past and Future Earnings, February 1st 2020

We know that Harvia Oyj has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Harvia Oyj the TSR over the last year was 67%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Harvia Oyj boasts a total shareholder return of 67% for the last year (that includes the dividends) . A substantial portion of that gain has come in the last three months, with the stock up 29% in that time. This suggests the company is continuing to win over new investors. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Harvia Oyj has 4 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FI exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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