For once, good news on the inflation front: The cost of heating your home with natural gas is expected to go down this winter.

Lower prices for the fuel that keeps most homes in the Midwest warm in the winter means many homeowners in Ohio and across the country won't pay as much to heat their home this winter, according to estimates from the Energy Information Administration.

Columbia Gas of Ohio, which serves about 1.4 million customers across the state, said Monday that the fuel portion of the company's natural gas bills for customers who do not receive their supply through default service is expected to be about 25% to 35% lower than last winter when Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in natural gas prices.

“With the costs of many everyday items continuing to rise, we know that every bit of savings can make a difference,” Vince Parisi, president and chief operating officer of Columbia Gas of Ohio, said in a statement. “The decrease in the cost of natural gas comes as good news, as we head into the winter months, when customers typically use more to heat their homes.”

The EIA estimates assume that it will be slightly colder this winter than last winter for the eastern half of the country, but warmer than the average of the previous 10 winters.

In the Midwest, where about two-thirds of homes are heated by natural gas, the cost of a heating a home for the entire winter should be $581, according to the EIA estimates. That's down 21% from last winter.

Heating with electricity, used by about a quarter of the homes in the Midwest, is expected to cost $1,213 this winter, about the same as last year.

Heating with propane is estimated to cost $1,294 this winter in the Midwest, an 11% drop from last winter. Propane is used by 7.7% of homes in the Midwest to heat.

The EIA is basing its estimates on a heating season that runs from November through March. Forecasts from previous years also included October, but EIA says October accounted for only 6% of winter heating demand over the prior 10 years.

The previous winters referenced in this report have been recalculated to exclude October data.

Natural gas prices low going into winter

Natural gas prices have tumbled since May, and the wholesale spot price at one of the key markets was $2.74 per thousand cubic feet in September, down two-thirds from September 2022 and among the lowest prices on an inflation-adjusted basis in the past 20 years, according to EIA. The average U.S. residential natural gas price in September was 17% below where it was a year ago.

EIA also forecasts lower prices for heating oil and propane this winter.

Although the oil prices, a key factor in setting heating oil and propane retail prices, are similar to last year, prices for wholesale heating oil and propane have fallen.

It's all about the weather

How cold it will be this winter will go a long way in determining how much it will cost to heat your home.

Weather affects household heating expenses in two ways, according to EIA.

Cold weather raises the amount of energy needed to keep a house at a specific temperature. The more consumption of energy, the higher the cost.

Secondly, cold weather raises demand for energy and can disrupt supply, and that can cause energy prices to spike, especially if inventories are low.

What to do if you need help this winter

There are a number of programs that can help families pay their winter heating bills:

From Nov. 1 through March 31, income-eligible Ohioans can receive one-time assistance with their home energy bill through the Ohio Department of Development’s Home Energy Assistance Winter Crisis Program.

The federally-funded program assists Ohioans facing service disconnection, have been disconnected, need to establish new service, need to pay to transfer service, have a Percentage of Income Payment Plan default, need to make their first PIPP payment, or have 25 percent or less supply of bulk fuel in their tank to maintain service.

Qualifying households must have a gross annual income of at or below 175 percent of the federal poverty level. For a family of four, that is up to $52,500.

Columbia Gas customers in need of assistance can call 800-344-4077 or go to Columbiagasohio.com/SaveEnergy.

AEP Ohio's Neighbor to Neighbor program provides eligible customers with a utility assistance grant applied directly to their AEP Ohio bill. This grant of up to $350 helps limited-income customers maintain or restore their basic electric service.

Heating assistance grants are available through March 29.

The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio also has issued its annual special reconnect order that helps Ohioans served by PUCO-regulated utilities reconnect or maintain electric and natural gas service during the winter heating season.

Any residential customer of a PUCO-regulated electric or natural gas company may take advantage of the provisions contained in the order once per winter heating season. Last winter heating season more than 198,000 Ohioans used the Special Reconnect Order.

Under the order, customers must pay the utility no more than $175 plus any applicable reconnection charge which cannot exceed $36. If the utility’s reconnect charge is greater than $36, the balance above $36 may be charged to the customer on the customer’s next monthly bill.

mawilliams@dispatch.com

@BizMarkWilliams

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Many Ohioans may see lower heating bills this winter from natural gas