Chipotle EPS Jumps 52%, But Revenue, Margin Miss

Chipotle Mexican Grill shares cooled down late Tuesday after the trendy burrito chain served up hot earnings growth but missed slightly on sales and other key metrics.

Q4 earnings rose 52% to $3.84 a share, ahead of forecasts by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $3.79. Chipotle (CMG) has logged double-digit EPS growth in 15 of the last 16 quarters.

Revenue grew 27% to $1.07 billion, just below views for $1.074 billion. That ended a four-quarter string of faster growth. Same-store sales grew 16.1% vs. forecasts for 16.3%.

"Same-store sales were essentially in line with Street projections, but Chipotle's valuation had built in a same-store sales beat," Sterne Agee analyst Lynne Collier told IBD.

Chipotle sees a low- to mid-single-digit comps gain for 2015, a big slowdown but in line with its prior guidance, Collier says.

Restaurant-level operating margin widened by 100 basis points to 26.6%, but that was below consensus for 27.6%, Collier says.

Food costs were 35% of revenue, an increase of 110 basis points, due primarily to higher dairy and beef costs. A menu price hike last summer partially offset that.

Chipotle stock fell 7% in late trading. Ahead of results, shares rose 1.6% to 726.63, a record close.

Same-store sales growth was driven primarily by an increase in customer visits, as well as the menu price increase.

Chipotle Still 'Unmatched'

Missing the Street's lofty expectations doesn't change Collier's view of Chipotle.

"Their same-store sales numbers are unmatched by anyone in the industry," she said. "They have an incredible opportunity for unit growth in the U.S. and internationally as well.

Chipotle expects 190 to 205 restaurant openings in 2015.

Brian Sozzi, CEO of Belus Capital Advisors, is also upbeat. As long as Yum Brands (YUM) and McDonald's (MCD) "continue to struggle, it means that Chipotle is doing very well.

Diners who used to go to McDonald's and other fast-food chains, he adds, are "obsessed with Chipotle.

Brand Image Key

"There is a fundamental movement across the country toward health and wellness within the fast-food industry that's very much being spurred on by what Chipotle continues to do," he said. "They have no genetically modified organisms (in the food) on their menu. They're way out in front of this social issue that's really a big deal and that nobody else has tackled yet. The ingredients that Chipotle uses are far superior than what you find in McDonald's, Burger King or Wendy's (WEN).

Chipotle recently pulled pork from some locations, saying some suppliers hadn't lived up to its standards for animal treatment. While that could hurt sales, it also bolsters its brand.

Sozzi says Chipotle has strong traffic from lunch to dinner.

"The lines never seem to ease until the doors are scheduled to close," he adds. "There's no one in fast food that could around the clock have long lines and with people willing to spend $10 to $15 for lunch.

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) reports Q4 financials Thursday. Super Bowl traffic and sales will not be included. But it was likely a super day for the sports bar and eatery, as both New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks fans gathered at Buffalo Wild Wings eateries to cheer on their teams and chow down on chicken wings, beer and other tasty fare.

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