It's been a sad week for Vontobel Holding AG (VTX:VONN), who've watched their investment drop 11% to CHF58.60 in the week since the company reported its yearly result. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CHF1.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.0% to hit CHF4.01 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vontobel Holding

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Vontobel Holding are now predicting revenues of CHF1.33b in 2023. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 3.8% to CHF4.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF1.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF5.13 in 2023. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CHF61.25 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vontobel Holding at CHF62.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF60.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Vontobel Holding is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Vontobel Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vontobel Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Vontobel Holding going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Vontobel Holding Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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