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Siebert chief investment officer Mark Malek joins Market Domination Overtime anchors Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to analyze how uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies is influencing market (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) dynamics.
Malek suggests it's "becoming increasingly difficult" to interpret Trump's trade strategy as merely a negotiation tactic. He emphasizes that "the disinformation around the tariffs" and "the unknowns" are significantly impacting market dynamics, investor confidence, and investment strategies.
"If we knew what they were going to be, then we could start to factor them into our models, but at this stage, we don't know what's going to be and what's not going to be," he explains to Yahoo Finance.
Malek further adds, "Knowing very little at this point is getting more challenging" for investors, companies, and consumers alike.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here.
tariff concerns spooking markets today plus concerns about the health of the economy, also weighing on investors. And the recent decline in consumer confidence could mean more bad news according to our next guest. Joining us now is Mark Malek, Seebert CIO. Mark, always good to see you.
Thank you. Good to see you.
So let's talk. You know, Julie was just mentioning tariffs. President Trump likes tariffs, Mark. He's a fan of tariffs. He was talking tough today saying, "Listen, those tariffs on Canada, Mexico, they're going to proceed as planned." He mentioned this additional 10% levy on China. I'm just curious how as an investor strategist you try to think through that. We've had other investors come on, Mark, and sort of suggest they almost kind of look through it. In other words, it's tough talk, it's a lot of huffing and puffing, but I guess they kind of see it as just one giant negotiating tool. Is that how you see it?
Well, it's how we try to see it, but it's becoming increasingly difficult. And it's not necessarily the tariffs themselves as much as the the disinformation around the tariffs, the unknowns about whether they're actually going to go into effect, how much they're going to be, if they're going to last. And I think that information, that sort of fog of unknowns, it just is overshadowing just about everything. It's very difficult even for, you know, the well-trained investor to look past this and say, "Hey, when is pen going to be put to paper? What do these look like?" It would almost be good, even if they were large, if we knew what they were going to be then we could start to factor them into our models. But at this stage, we don't know what's going to be and what's not going to be, and that's really got everybody a little bit on edge, and it's basically applying some weight to the whole market at this point.
I mean, it's hard for companies too, right? We were looking at some Bloomberg data that was tallying up the number of mentions of tariffs on conference calls. It's at a record, it's around 700. You know, it spiked the last time there was all this talk, but it's spiked even more now. And, you know, how much does that have the capacity to weigh on decision-making at companies, and therefore weigh on earnings potentially going forward?
Oh, it sure does. I saw that same graph earlier, and those numbers are rivaling 2018 numbers. And we definitely saw, you know, companies having impact, making decisions based on what might happen. That's the job of management to to anticipate these types of things. I think the challenge is, again, if we knew what they were, if the companies knew what they were. Because now we're talking about a VAT tax, and a VAT tax versus a tariff, and I think, you know, at the end of the day, it's all kind of negative, but how negative and where that impacts the companies and their decisions, knowing more would help. And I think knowing very little at this point is getting more challenging.
So it's uncertainty for the company and the CEO, Mark. It's also another uncertainty for the consumer, of course. We got a consumer confidence report this week. We had another strategist on the show. I think he called, I think he used the word stinker is how he put it. How what do you think as a strategist, you see these sentiment surveys coming out?
Yeah, this consumer confidence is the ultimate leading indicator of how the economy is going to perform, right? Because consumers have to consume in order to grow the economy, and consumption is two-thirds of the economy. And so if consumers are not confident, if they're afraid of what their jobs are going to be like, or if they're afraid that they're going to have no control over costs and things like that, they're going to consume less, plain and simple. I mean, if you look at the consumer confidence number going back many, many years, you could see that there's it clearly decreases before before major recessions. So, you know, seeing that number is a little bit of an eye-opener. We saw it in the Michigan number earlier in the month, and it really, stinker is a good word for it. It was a stinker. And I think if people ignore it, they do it at their own peril at this point.
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This post was written by Angel Smith