In This Article:
Fresh economic data was released Thursday morning, including GDP figures and jobless claims. The GDP data revealed a 3% annualized growth rate, while jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four months. Deutsche Bank Private Bank Americas chief investment officer Deepak Puri joins Catalysts to discuss what this data means for future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Puri describes this data as "a welcome relief," noting it was needed after weak September consumer confidence data rattled markets earlier this week. He points out that the labor market appears to be in better condition than investors believed, although he adds, "there's some softening," but overall, "so far so good."
With Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — set for release tomorrow, Puri predicts, "I think you're going to see a number of around 2.7% year over year." He continues, "With the kind of labor market data, with the core PCE where it's at, and the consumer confidence data that we saw earlier, I really don't feel that there's enough for the Fed to go to another 50 basis point rate cut." Instead, Puri believes that two 25 basis point cuts could materialize from the Fed in the remainder of the year.
stocks rising about 30 minutes into our trading day. The NASDAQ leading the day up over 1% on the back of that GDP data showing the economy is growing at a faster clip than expected. Also the labor market appearing strong as well amid recent concerns. Jobless claims falling to their lowest level in four months. Joining us now for more, we've got Depak Puri. He is the chief investment officer for Deutsche Bank Private Bank Americas. And it's great to speak with you here. I just want to get a sense of what you think about today's data and the impact it could have on the degree of rate cuts to come forward. Do you think that this moves the needle at all?
Uh, most likely not, Madison. I think today's data is a welcome relief because one of the things this week that happened earlier was the consumer confidence which really plummeted for for current expectations. So I think today's labor market statistics in particular gives a little bit of a sigh of relief that the labor market conditions are not just, you know, falling off the cliff. There is some softness in the labor markets, definitely, and we're going to get more insight into that next week with the non-farm payroll data. But so far, so good. And I think one of the comments I would like to make is what the Fed is trying to do, and hence we saw that 50 basis point rate cut in September is really to avoid the most, you know, as consumption goes down with, let's say, softening of the labor markets. The Fed is trying to orchestrate a soft landing by making sure that the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, be it the housing or the manufacturing starts to, you know, go up so that before the consumption softens, there is enough momentum in those areas of the economy that can compensate for the softer, you know, consumption pattern that we might be seeing come fourth quarter of this year.
You know, Depak, that that is a very interesting point. And I guess for investors trying to figure out ultimately what this means for policy, obviously there certainly is a lot of uncertainty, but it sounds like from your points that you were just making, that this really then does bolster the case for just going 25 at the next meeting.
Indeed, because when you look at, and we're going to get core PC tomorrow, I think you're going to see a number of around 2.7% year over year. With the kind of labor market data, with the core PC where it's at, and the consumer confidence data that we saw earlier, I really don't feel that there's enough for the Fed to go for another 50 basis point rate cut. I think the bar is pretty high for another 50 basis points. We expect two 25 basis point rate cuts from now till the end of the year. Now, a lot can change if the JOLTS data and the non-farm payroll data come significantly weaker than what we are expecting right now. The expectation is really 140,000 job gains for the month of September. Let's say that comes below 100,000 and the unemployment rate and the underemployment rate goes up, you know, that might make bolster the case for a 50 basis point rate cut. But as things stand as of today, I think 25 basis point is a more base case scenario.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.
This post was written by Angel Smith