In This Article:
HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami joins Yahoo Finance to provide insights on the current state of the housing market.
Mohtashami emphasizes that housing affordability "depends on the labor market." He explains that if jobless claims increase, mortgage rates will likely fall, but if not, "then we'll stay at these levels." However, he highlights the improving spreads between the 10-year (^TNX) and 30-year Treasury yields (^TYX).
Mohtashami highlights the impact of climate change on the housing market, going as far as to say that "parts of the country might not be livable for a lot of homebuyers." He points out that as housing insurance costs rise amid natural disasters, "that's a problem" that could last for decades.
Despite these challenges, Mohtashami sees a "good story" in the housing inventory for 2024. He notes that new listings and active inventory are growing, although not significantly, but "it's good enough to give people more choices."
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime.
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This post was written by Angel Smith
Video Transcript
JOSH LIPTON: Logan, Mortgage News daily tells me that 30 year fixed we're back up to 7.34%. Where do we go from here. Logan, 6, 12 months ago, 12 months from now, where do you think we're at?
LOGAN MOHTASHAMI: Well, it really depends on the labor market. I think if jobless claims start to increase then the 10 year yield and mortgage rates will fall with it. If not, we're just going to be staying at these levels or even higher. And I think the labor market is the key for mortgage rates and mortgage rates could just get down toward 6%. The housing market could hold some of these sale gains. But I think another positive story for 2024. That wasn't the case last year, is that the spreads between the 10 year yield and 30 year mortgage.
They're improving this year. Last year that wasn't the case. The Silicon Valley banking crisis made the spreads worse. So we might have been a half a percent higher today if that wasn't the case.
JULIE HYMAN: Logan, even as we are seeing maybe mortgage rates forecast to come down a little bit this year. There is also increasing attention being paid to the other costs of owning a home that are not coming down. Things like insurance, things like property taxes. How much of an obstacle is that? And maybe even in some cases, a hidden obstacle that homeowners aren't entirely bargaining on.
LOGAN MOHTASHAMI: We have an issue in Florida where this might be the ground zero of does climate change really impact the housing market materially enough to where parts of the country might not be livable for a lot of home buyers. If your insurance costs are going up 20, 30% and you're at a risk of a hurricane, and it's very difficult to get insurance, that's a problem. And I think that's going to be a story with us for many decades to come.