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Welcome to a new episode of Opening bid. I'm Yahoo Fein's executive editor Brian Sazi. Like I always say, this is the podcast that will make you a better, a better investor and a smarter leader. Let's hit that, uh, timer clock on my stock of the day. I'm going back to the Tesla well. Why? 1, because I can, and two, I should, because this route is getting really bad in Tesla.I've got 3 reasons why this is actually getting worse. Number 1, Wall Street is really, really, really, really, really starting to hit Tesla's stock. Mizuho out this week cutting its delivery estimates on Tesla not only for this year but for next year. The analysts in this case citing a deterioration in geopolitics. In other words, Elon Musk, involvement with the Trump administration, potentially hurting demand for Tesla vehicles. Wall Street is really starting to.The alarm bell on Tesla's deliveries, something to continue to watch. Wall Street is really starting to hate this stock. Number 2, and this ties into the analyst downgrade. Weak demand or signs of weak demand continues. China reportedly getting 0% APR on Model Ys from Tesla, uh, something to watch moving forward. And last but not least, gotta give a shout out to my former colleague Gal finds Max Za now at ABC, uh, writing a story about Tesla insider share selling $100 million worth of stocks since February.Uh, you can go on the Yahoo Finance platform and check out this data. Uh, most of those insider sales are coming from Kimball Musk, Elon's brother James Murdoch, and Robin Denholm. So insider selling hurting Tesla stock, and I am way, way out of time, but I had to get these three things in. All right, on to our feature interview of this episode, bringing back friend of the program, EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson, uh, better known as my Nvidia Analysis lifeline. Uh, Eric, good to see you, man.So yeah, um, wow, GTC. I mean, Jensen goes on there. I was on set with our colleague, my colleagues Julian Hyman and Josh Lipton. As soon as Jensen came out, he came out in his old school black, uh, leather motorcycle jacket. It wasn't that alligator.shiny thing, he wore it CS and I'm like, man, guys, this has got to be a bullish indicator for Nvidia. Well, no, it wasn't. I mean, we saw the stock trade down. It's not really doing much here, uh, in the pre-market today. I level set for us. What did you see at this event?

Well, I think it sort of reminded me of uh a lot of Apple keynotes, uh, just both in terms of the fixation of uh all of us, investors, financial media on this event as being kind of the be all and end all for Nvidia, but also there being this sort of knee jerk, uh.Let down, uh, oh, that's it, you know, like, uh, reaction where the stock sort of rises into the keynote and then sort of like, uh, there was nothing new here and so forth. I mean, I, I thought it was, uh, chock full of, of lots of interesting information. You know, biggest thing, take a step back, um.Uh, when I, when I look at the stock, you know, it's, it's been flat for almost a year. You know, coming up in May, June, it's going to be about a year that this thing is sort of treaded water just above 100 bucks after a big rise in response to the Chat GPT. And so that, you know, the big question is where, you know, what's going to take it to the next level. And I think the, the key coming out.Of the GTC keynote yesterday from Jensen was him saying, hey, uh, we're using 100 times more information, 100 times more compute, 100 times more of our chips today than we probably expected a year ago, and that's going to continue. Uh, and so I think that was sort of like the biggest thing. uh, and obviously,Uh, a lot of the attention yesterday in the keynote was spent on talking about the next generation of chips and just how much more powerful they're going to become, how much more efficient, how much, you know, cheaper from a total cost of ownership they're going to be to, to run for people that that have to, you know, build out these data centers. So I think that was the biggest um bullish argument for, for Nvidia bullets coming out of the keynote.

Eric, before I want to get, there's a lot of this are really complicated technical stuff that Jensen laid out before we even get there over the past two years, I would argue a lot. There's been a wave of new investors that have gotten to this market through Nvidia, uh, and of course they're checking Nvidia's stock price on the biggest business platform in the world. That's Yahoo Finance. Go to give a shout out to Yao Finance. They, I would argue, don't understand why a stock would go down when a founder of a $1 trillion company.Is putting out clear products that are way better than A and B, way, way better than Intel. Clearly this is a company in the leadership position. Why does this happen? Like what is the investing 101 uh breakdown here? Stock goes down as the company that is leading an entire market announces more stuff that will keep them in the lead for the next 10 years.

Yeah, you know, another analogy to Apple is, I think the key question, Brian, is, is this one time revenue?Or is this recurring revenue that's gonna, and then there's gonna be another layer of, of added revenue to come. I think there was a lot of skepticism when the iPhone came out that, uh, OK, you had, you had a group of people that were mass adopting this device, but so what, you know, like, was there, was that gonna continue the next year? Was there gonna be another 20% growth on top of that? Was there gonna be another 30% growth the year after on top of that?Um, could, can we rely on these numbers continuing? And I think that's been the biggest thing hanging over Nvidia stock. Uh, and, and that's been reflected in the sort of contracting, uh, forward PE multiple that people have put on the stock. This people just haven't been sure that, that the, the 40 billion, you know, a quarter.In revenues that we, we've gotten used to over the last year can continue and go up on top of that. So, um, you know, my biggest mistake, you know, I was on your, uh, I was on this podcast, I think, uh, I don't know, 6 months ago, Brian, where I said, you know, if you look at the last 5 years and you look at that 4 PE multiple for Nvidia has been.You know, we're now sort of way below the mean for what it's been in the last 5 years. At some point, you know, you're going to get this sort of bout of optimism, uh, where investors are all, all in, and they think like, OK, good times are about to come. And yet we've just sort of seen this continued ticking down in the multiple. I think that's going to change at some point. And I think that's whatJensen was alluding to yesterday in the GTC keynote is that he's saying like, hey guys, this is, we are way ahead, like you said, of the competition one. these chips that we're, we're, we're, we're gonna be selling are way more powerful and we are totally underestimating as a society how much compute we're going to need to kind of, you know, respond to these AI.The AI demand that that's to come in the yearsto come,

you know, the crazy thing was, that I believe Intel's stock went up, but they're so Intel's so, I mean they're not even the same stratosphere, uh, as Nvidia. I, I, I saw what Jensen came out there in that partnership with General Motors, um, I'm just thinking on this company is blowing everybody away, but you make a good point on, on the iPhone, you know, at the time, you know, you thought, well, well, we don't know about the cell phone, what it might look like, what it might do, became a transformational project.I mean, are you in that camp that AI is not going to be transformative? I, I see this stuff. I see it everywhere. I see in AI agents, uh, I see the CEOs that I talked to Eric, using, uh, AI agents in their various lines of communication. I see building being built into infrastructure around the world. I just, I'm surprised by the level of doubt, I guess.

Yeah, I am too. I, I, I think, uh, uh, I'm using it more and more in my daily life. I think most people.Chat GBT is sort of, uh, you know, an alternative, a replacement for kind of traditional search. Uh, Jensen was kind of, you know, sort of pointing out in a couple of comments yesterday, uh, hey, uh, do you notice that there's more of a delay when you use Chat GPT over the last couple of months? That's because there's such a surge in demand for this stuff. So, yeah, I, I think, um, it's a show me story, like people, you know, as much as, you know, it'sNice that they could talk about it and we inked this partnership with GM or they, they trotted out the, uh, you know, I think his name was Blue, the robot at the end of the keynote, uh, I sort of like, hey, there's, this is where things are going and physical AI and allthat.

They had robots shaking people's hand at the event. I mean, you walk, I was watching some, uh, posts on X, Eric. I mean, there's a robot put it out his hand or her hand or a hand. I was shaking hands with people. I'm like, I get, I get what he's talking about robots. I get it.

Yeah, but I think from a cool-headed, uh, investor perspective, it's a, it's that all that stuff is sort of like a show me story. The autonomous driving. Like, I'll believe it when I see it in the last quarter's numbers is kind of a reaction. So, um, that's, I think that, you know, that's fine. I, I think with, with iPhone though, you know, like two things happened, you know, people, you know, people eventually realized, wow, this thing effectively is like a subscription because everyYou know, whether it's a 2-year upgrade cycle or 3-year upgrade cycle for people, I mean, eventually everybody's going to keep re-upping and buying the next generation of this device. So effectively that they're on a subscription plan. And then the services got layered on top of that. So I think Jensen was trying to say, hey, you know, you're gonna be hooked on these chips, you know, you're gonna, you're hooked on Blackwell, you're gonna get hooked on Ruben, uh, because it's so much more powerful and more cost efficient to run it.Um, and you, you know, he was kind of almost dissing like the, the, you know, why would you want to buy Hopper when you can buy the latest Blackwell chip, when you can buy the, the, um, you know, the, the Ruben chip to come. And, you know, I know you, you pointed out, I think, uh, Brian, that, you know, maybe he's gonna make some, uh, comments about China and how they're going to handle export controls, you know, he, he didn't say anything explicitly, as you know, but, but that comment about like why would you want to buy Hopper?In a, in a way it was sort of like a wink wink to, you know, like I'm sure everybody, whether they're in China or other countries around the world are going to do everything they can move heaven and earth to kind of get their hands on these latest chips. So that's to come. Is there going to be like an equivalent of iPhone services to layer on top of Nvidia? I mean, that could be the robots, that could be the autonomous driving, it could be, you know, something like that. Uh, you know, the Kuda Kuda was obviously sort of taking center stage there and sort of saying, look, hey, this is another reason why, um.We're different from a broadcom. We're not just sort of pumping out somebody else's chips. Like we have like a very tight control over our ecosystem, our product roadmap, how everything all works together, um, you know, and, and, and telling that story, and, and it is a strong, powerful story. You

know, um, how many companies do you know, Eric, that come out here on the scale Nvidia with the innovation they do and lay out a product roadmap through 2028?

Uh, we just haven't seen um.You know, except for maybe Apple, you know, a company operating at this scale, you know, with, uh, you know, growing top line, you know, you know, charting out the future for the next 10years,

literally, charting it out, literally putting on a screen in front of 17,000 people. Here's our product roadmap. Intel, if you could beat this, go give it a try, dude.

Right, with a hockeystick,

yeah, yeah,

like this is where we're going.

Um, alright, hang with us, Eric. We're gonna go off for a, uh, quick break. Uh lots more to talk about on video. We're gonna dig into a little tech. We'll be right back on opening bid.All right, welcome back to Opening Bid. Uh, calling back in, uh, a friend of the show, EMJ Capital's founder, uh, Eric Jackson on all things Nvidia. We're gonna get to tech a little bit before we get to tech, uh, Eric, um, because we don't have all day to talk about this stuff, buy sell a hold on on Nvidia, is your, has your bullish case on Nvidia been shook in any way?

I, I think.You know, like, I, it's been shook in the sense that, uh, I, I assumed a kind of quick, you know, bounce back or, you know, like on a new set of earnings, we're gonna see like this thing go trade back up to like 40 times for PE at some point. And that just hasn't happened yet. Um, right now, given the sell off after the last set of earnings and the broader Mag 7, decline.I think, uh, Nvidia still looks good on a relative basis to pretty much anything else in the, in the Mach 7. I think it's, it's sort of trading above its recent lows. Uh, I think, you know, that, you know, this sort of like let down, uh, decline after GTC is probably done, and I think the stock is now due, uh, along with the rest of the market for sort of a bounce back in the, in the weeks.So I think it can go back to like the 140s, 150s, and maybe, you know, sort of, you know, sort of chart new, new, new waters to, uh, something like 160. Is it gonna go to 40 times 4 PE though? That might take, um, you know, another year or so. I think, you know, once people really see, uh, this company sort of, you know, the, the growth of Blackwell, for example.And then start to get excited about Ruben.

What is Eric, what is the, the catalyst if we if this stock is not going to move after another powerful keynote from Jensen, it's not going to move after they lay out a product roadmap through 2028 that is clearly better than everybody else's, uh, also outlining a, I would argue, a larger total addressable market for AI than some people thought.Uh, coming out here again hyping the potential for robots. I knew we knew these things. That's fine, but I think there were some incremental nuggets to the AI story that Jensen laid out. What will get the stock working?

I think it's probably still the more applications which won't come from, uh, Nvidia. It'll come from, you know, the, the, their, their, their partners, their customers, their, the users of the Blackwell chips. So, um.You know, is it gonna be the, you know, the Palantir has has sort of done, done a good job of like banging the drum. Um, you know, we got excited because there was some news like 6 months ago about Klarna, you know, apparently like laying off a whole lack of, uh, customer support people. But when they actually, um, kind of got into their numbers in their recent IPO filing, it wasn't as impressive financially as maybe we, you know, we expected 6 months ago from what they had.Leaked out. So I think it's got to be another story like that coming from some company using, uh, AI that, you know, is seeing just tremendous cost savings, uh, and so forth. So I, I think it's gonna come from, from that excitement and then the fact that other people are, are, are feeling the need to, you know, play catch up to, to those examples, and then obviously they're gonna have to buy more, more chips.Uh, to kind of get there because of the, you know, the, the severe lead times that are involved in in producing these kinds of apps, but I think, I think that's gonna be the, uh, you know, those, those will be the leaders of the parade that will bring Nvidia out to kind of new eyes.

If, if Nvidia is not going to work after GTC, can we make a bull case for the mag 7, which is also off its highs?

I mean, it's got, it's, it's got to, uh, you know, I don't think Magevens work without Nvidia working. So, and I, I, like I said before, I, I think they're, they're among the, the, the, the Mach 7. I think they're the one, you know, uh, trading highest off the recent lows, um, you know, have still have a great story intact, still have great kind of, you know, fundamentals, great recent earnings.Great roadmap like we've talked about. So I, I think, um, I think they're, they're gonna work if Mac 7 works. Mag 7 have not worked in 2025, so it's, it sort of reminded me of, uh, you know, 2022 more. Uh, this isn't, this isn't like a year, you know, the more recent years, 23 and 24, where Mag 7 worked, but a lot of other stocks did not. Uh, this, this, this year, it's, it's sort of like the mag 7s are sort ofUh, sucking wind and treading water here. So I, I, but you know, it's been several months like that now, um, so I think there's, you know, hope hope springs eternal that, you know, this is just like a recent pullback, 10% pullback. It's healthy and, uh, you know, the market can catch its breath and move forward, including the mag 7 names. It's

not lost, at least on me, you know we're at the time of this taping, we're we're going to get a Federal Reserve decision.And the mag 7 is sold off at the same time as rate cut expectations have been dialed back. Is that is this sell off and I guess tech more broadly a function of what the Fed may or may not do this year?

I don't think so. I mean, I think, you know, we were due for a pullback one, but, you know, uh, in prior years like the ones I mentioned, you know, it was rate hikes, you know, or increases that were.was sort of like the, the bane of existence of of technology stocks and concerns about that and higher, you know, as a reflection of higher inflation. So, you know, rate cuts should be supportive, but I don't think in and of themselves, like, uh, they mean as much when they're concerned swirling around the recession and uncertainty about tariffs and all the rest. So I think, um, you know, uh we'll, we'll see whether there's like, you know, some government resolution to that, i.e.Like the White House comes out and sort of turns his back on tariff policy, which is probably unlikely, or more likely, I think, you know, we've just, we've we've endured this kind of pull back and it's market sort of decides in its wisdom one day that despite the fact that maybe uncertainty is going to continue, we've had a long enough pullback and now it's time to go back to work and the market can move up again just for its ownreasons

almost in this backdrop where theMag 7 is not gonna work Nvidia's gonna get hit. What tech stocks do you like and how are you finding them? Like what, what clears your bar?

Well, I think there are a lot of, um, sort of individual stories, uh, where they've, you know, companies are undervalued, so there's an undervalued component. Uh, they've, they posted some recent great earnings, uh, that have surprised the market. And so they, they are sort of marching to the beat of their own drummer. So I root in.Insurance is one that I've, I've, I've mentioned a couple of times where, you know, not really well known, sort of part of a group of stocks that came out in 21 called Ensure Tech, uh, that kind of, you know, fell flat on their face almost immediately, um, and got forgotten about, uh, kind of the way like Carvana did. And yet, they've had some really, really strong earnings, uh, in the last two earnings reports. Uh, and the market sort of like has to kind of put that into perspective and sort of said to itself, like, well, maybe we've totallyUndervalued this company. Uh, so the stock's been on a huge run lately. So, um, those, those kinds of stories are, are few and far between. Um, you know, I'm also a sort of quantum fan. We're gonna get a Quantum day as part of GTC on Thursday of this week. So that's going to be interesting, uh, given that, uh, Jensen's comments in, in January were the ones that took, took the whole sector down, uh, saying it was like 30 years away, and then, yeah, 3 months later, here we are talking about Nvidia's Quantum.doesn't sound like a, you know, a 30 year out uh story to me. Uh, so all the partners like IonQ and Regetti and Dwave Systems are going to be there. Uh, what are they gonna say? Uh, you know, there's a lot of hype there, but there's uh, you know, that this sector quantum is still so small, uh, that just with a little bit of good news and customer contracts, sort of as as we saw with the D-wave earnings last week, uh, these stocks can, can move a lot.

Uh, you're in good company here on opening bid because Bill Gates said he doesn't really agree with what Jensen said. So I mean we're only A-lister here on, uh, Eric, you know, Eric Jackson, that's why we bring you on here. I wanna get your hot take, uh, at the end here, and I remember you were really the first one that told me, uh, about a company called Deep Seek like months before that whole.Deep seek selloff came to light and many people even knew what the company did. I looked it up and I'm like, OK, I guess, I get what Eric's talking about. I pushed it off to the side. I mean, I discounted it. What else is on your radar that investors in tech or markets more broadly need to look out on? Well, what is cool and and what's happening?

I think, uh, I would say that we've gotten addicted over these last few years to the Mag 7.And, and with triple ETFs for, you know, single names like, you know, Bearish, you know, Tesla ETF, Tesla Q and all this kind of stuff, you know, ETFs, um, that's, these have all contribute, you know, it's so much part of our, you know, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and so forth. Um, these have exaggerated kind of, you know, these sort of market moves in these, in these big names andAnd so I, I, I just think that um they're great companies. There's a reason why they're so large and cash generating and so forth. Um, so, but I don't think they deserve probably as much a percentage of your own portfolio uh as maybe we, you know, you would have thought like a year ago, two years ago when they were just like, you know, shooting the lights out, um, in 23 and 24. So I, I think, I think uha lot of investors want to should take a step back and sort of, you know, try to discover, uh, the, the smaller names within tech. Tech is going to continue to be the place where people are, you know, just drawing like a moth to the flame because of, you know, growth expectations. Uh, but, you know, more cash should be put into some of these smaller names. I think there's, there is going to be a renaissance of these smaller growth names in the years ahead.

In other words, Eric, uh, message to investors, do your damn homework, read SEC filings, get to know these leaders. Just don't go out there and trade these stocks because your next door neighbor is doing so. Uh, EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson, always appreciate your time. Next time we're gonna do this in some black leather Jensen jackets, I think. All right. All right.Eric, good to see you. All right, and that's it for the latest episode of Opening bid. Continue to hit us with those 5 stars on all the podcast platforms, Amazon Music, Apple, uh, Spotify, thumbs up on YouTube. Love all your comments. I really enjoy answering them, provided they are, uh, fair and not absolutely ridiculous. We'll talk to you soon.