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Well for more on these rising tensions in the Middle East, we want to welcome in, welcome in Carmiel Arbit, senior fellow for the Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council. Carmiel, thank you for being here. So we're trying to sort of understand these events even as they are happening on the ground in Israel and potentially um a strike against Iran. What should people be looking for? What do you think is now the next step that perhaps Israel might take?

Yeah, thank you so much. We are certain to see um the tip for tat between Israel and the Iranians is going to continue and what is really unfolding as a war of attrition. What we saw today was a response by the Iranians that was more significant than what we've seen in the past. Ballistic missiles, of course, fall within 12 minutes of warning time. You saw Israelis running into shelters across Tel Aviv um in areas that did not have a large population. Although I believe one person was injured at least so far and these numbers are still coming out. Um we saw ballistic missiles actually hit the ground or pieces that were exploded then hit. So this was a pretty significant message from the Iranians and yet at the same time not an especially successful one. What we can expect now is going to be a response from Israel. And the real question is whether or not they're going to specifically target Iranian nuclear facilities which could pose an existential threat to the Iranians.

Do you think it's possible Carmiel they they might also target Iranian leadership as they did with Hezbollah?

It certainly is possible and we've seen this and and we've already seen that the Iranian leadership is very afraid that that's going to be the case. Moving their leadership into um safe areas or underground bunkers. Um I think what we are more likely to see is a more complex environment around this war. It's not going to be as simple as traditional warfare where we're looking at, you know, um ballistic missiles firing back and forth, but really to look at the full spectrum of conflict. And that includes cyber warfare, targeted attacks, military leaders, um and again continued escalation from both sides.

Carmiel, something similar, although it was a different point in this conflict, something similar happened in April. When you had Iran fire a number of missiles that were intercepted. Israel did then counterstrike, but it was a limited counterstrike. What has changed from then and now and how might that change the response?

Yeah, I think that there are certainly lessons to be learned from what happened um earlier in the spring, but what's significantly different here is that Israel has now depleted Iran's strongest proxy in the region and that is Hezbollah. Um they sent in a very short period of time a significant message about the weaknesses of Hezbollah, which is the best armed and best trained group in the region and took out Nasrallah who's really the face of that movement. You know, there are some military movements like Hamas where you might see leadership a little bit more detached, but Nasrallah is really kind of the center force for Hezbollah. So what Israel is trying to accomplish is a little bit different as well. I think for the Iranians the goal had been to drag Israel into a wider regional war, wider, excuse me, regional war, which they had been less successful in, but is now really starting to work.

What do you think uh coming out the role the US is here and will be?

Yeah, I think we're still going to be finding out exactly what role the US played today in taking down some of these ballistic missiles from Iran. So that's going to be coming out in real time. The US is going to continue to work with the Israelis to push for a ceasefire in Gaza simultaneously and to push, push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The Israelis have said that they have essentially three objectives and one of those key objectives is enabling Israelis who've been displaced in the north by the hundreds of thousands to return to their homes. And so the US is going to work with Israel to try to make that possible all at the same time giving the Israelis space um to defend themselves as this continues to escalate.

What do you think Carmiel as someone who studies this so closely, what do you think the relationship is right now between Israel and the US? Because listen, it looks to me like Israel, Netanyahu, they really stopped listening to this administration for months. I mean, this administration told them not to go into Rafa, for example. I'm curious what you think the relationship looks like.

Yeah, I think that there will always be tension points between Netanyahu and any foreign leader. And he is very committed to his own political survival and his own view of what Israel security needs are that often does not align with what the US uh sees this as kind of being the current imperative to prevent a regional war. That being said, the US and Israel will continue to be very closely aligned as this progresses. The US, of course, sees Hezbollah and Iran as a threat to American interests overseas and is going to work with Israel moving forward um to support ultimately their ambitions in Lebanon.

Carmiel, thank you so much for joining the show today. Appreciate your time.

Thank you.