Economic growth is expected to slow significantly this year. Vanguard head of global economic research and senior international economist Kevin Khang joins Catalysts to discuss the possibility of a recession.
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What is your base case for the likelihood that high inflation mixed with lower growth could lead to a recession this time around?
Our view, currently again, we're taking one step at a time, but our view currently is that, um, um, it's we're going to see a significantly softer economic growth this year. Um, and, um, our forecast for now is it's going to be somewhere between, uh, .5 and 1%. Um, you know, roughly 7.5, uh, 0.75% growth in the US. But again, the variance around our forecast is unusually large, and, um, you know, we're in the state of what we would call dancing with recession. So, recession may not be our baseline, but it's we're very close to that.
