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TSMC Intel foundry talks are 'very tactical' for chip space

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Intel (INTC) is in focus after naming Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO, effective March 18, following reports that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) approached chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) to run Intel's foundry business in a joint venture.

Moor Insights & Strategy CEO, founder, and chief analyst Patrick Moorhead joins Asking for a Trend to discuss how the potential deal would work.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.

00:00 Speaker A

You know, Intel shares were were jumping in today's trade. We had this Reuters report, which you referenced there, that TSMC was pitching Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom about taking over Intel's chip manufacturing operations. This would be a a joint venture. I'm curious what you made of that news, Patrick, and maybe starting with TSMC, what would be their interest here, Patrick? You know, would it be about adding capacity, would it be about taking out a potential rival?

00:53 Patrick

Yeah, so first off, you know, the latest rumors are moving, you know, they started off as as lunacy, crazy rumors. Uh, but this one actually has legs. And in fact, I had recommended this in a report that I did a while ago, which was, okay, if Intel needed capitalization and it needed customers, what's a way that this could happen? But for TSMC, and let's assume 50%, by the way, 50% is not going to fly, 49% I think would, but the benefit to TSMC is that they potentially lock out a competitor. And even though it's an investment into Intel, if TSMC doesn't, if it's TSMC IP, which by the way, as a as a foundry, you just build two things, uh, then it seems to me a very, very tactical, but exercise. But what TSMC gets is they they get likely would get access to Columbus, which was pulled back based on lack of demand, and they would be able to move their tools or leverage Intel tools. You know, believe it or not, TSMC and Intel share similar tooling inside of their factory. They just have different IP and processes. Uh, so it would be it would be an upside for TSMC for just that. I'm sure uh, TSMC would love this, uh, because they could potentially limit, uh, the possibility that an Nvidia, a Qualcomm, or a Broadcom, uh, would use Intel IP.

04:10 Speaker A

And so that's TSMC. What about Intel? Let's say you were leading negotiations for Intel and all this, Patrick. What would be your key considerations from Intel's perspective?

04:31 Patrick

Yeah, so Intel gets capitalization. Uh, and first of all, I would never do anything less for more than 49% external investment to lose control. And for what it's worth, I don't think the administration would let that that fly. Gets chips into its factories. They can put the pedal to the metal on their Columbus build out, um, and they can say that they have major customers inside of their factory, which again, is is half the battle. The other battle is the intellectual property that's being used, but uh, it does matter and it does count.

05:57 Speaker A

If this deal gets done, Patrick, who loses?

06:05 Patrick

Yeah, I think that if this ends up being a 50% deal, uh, then it it's the the US that that loses. Um, I said, you know, there's only two things foundries do, they create IP and they create chips that are with that IP. If somebody invades Taiwan, and the IP is stuck over in Taiwan, uh, US won't see any new IP and it's US factories. Chips will literally be frozen in time for a few years as companies redesign for Intel and Global Foundries' intellectual property.

07:25 Speaker A

Uh, so this is the part where I'd ask you to take out your crystal ball, Patrick. Do you think this deal gets done, and could it be structured in a way that it it does get Trump's approval?

07:46 Patrick

I I think a deal like this does get done. Uh, overall external parties 49%, Intel at 51%. Uh, and and if you look at the potential customers out there, the Broadcoms, the Qualcomms, the Apple, right? They're looking at the potential for these giant tariffs coming in from Taiwan. They can get out of those, but also the ability, once we get a lot of chip making capability back in the United States, I can see all US infrastructure, uh, banking, uh, telecom, universities only being able to source computers that have chips that are made in the United States. So those companies are able to participate in those markets.

09:18 Speaker A

Patrick, your timing today on the show, impeccable, my friend. Thank you so much for all that instant analysis and insight. Appreciate it.

09:31 Patrick

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