President Trump's new 10% global tariffs are shaking up economic forecasts.
Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman chats with Brett Ryan, Deutsche Bank Securities senior US economist, to discuss how these tariffs could slow growth and increase the risk of a recession.
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Sensible minds have tried to avoid lighting their hair on fire as they've been getting dribs and drabs of uh, tariff, uh, output from Trump and tariff, new tariff ideas. Uh, and until now, the main line forecasts have been, no, Trump tariffs will not cause a recession on their own. Are you rethinking that?
It's, you know, it it's it's really difficult because on a on a, you know, on on the face of it, you would say this would probably put US growth, uh, at stall speed, and and possibly worse than that. So, yeah, perhaps not not necessarily outright recession, but, you know, close to close to stall speed where you're more vulnerable. Again, I point back to what is the tax bill going to look like? And how much does that offset some of this? And do we also have room here for negotiations with other countries that can bring these bring these down? So, you know, it's tough to kind of model out. If you take if somehow you take your top five trading partners and say, okay, we can negotiate these rates down, you know, cut them in half, then it's a whole different ball game. And that that could change at any minute. So, um, you know, I wouldn't say it's it's it's outright recessionary. I would say that it certainly increases the risk of recession. Uh, and you know, if you if you do the math, will probably bring you bring growth, you know, 1% or below, um near stall speed.