Yahoo Finance

The Dow extends its longest win streak of 2025 as stocks rise amid the latest tariff relief and Yahoo finances Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared.

Hey Josh, we got to start with the 100 days, the final tallies. So let's just do that right now. I'm going to start with the sector action. Really interesting to see what happened here because remember the election to the inauguration was wildly bullish and then we saw this huge reversal. So here is the final scores on the door. Staples and then utilities and real estate. The only sectors in the green staples up 5%, but you'll notice these top four here and I'm going to throw healthcare which is basically break even. Those are defensive sectors. So this was a very defensive move here even when some of these issues traded in the green or closed in the green here. XLY is consumer discretionary. That's Amazon and that's also Tesla. Tesla got cut in half after that huge rally after the election. Energy also down right along with tech, which is really interesting because energy and tech typically over the last three years have traded opposite each other, but there they are towards the bottom. But I'm going to show you something else here. I want to show you since the bottom of this equity rally. And so on 4/8, that's April 8th, we had the price low in the S&P 500 and some of the other majors. That's what I'm measuring this against and now you see a lot of green. So tech is up 16% leading the way once again still in this bull market as it did for the first two years. Consumer discretionary, that's Amazon and Tesla, that's number two. Then XLB materials, that was actually negative after the election. That has swung positive since April 8th, then industrials. To the downside, even healthcare, staples, energy, utilities, those four defensive sectors in the green by decent amounts here. So we've we've made some decent progress for the bulls, but remains to be seen if we can continue up to those record highs here. We got some ways to go.

And with just one more day left in April, how are we looking?

Yeah, let's go to month to date. This is going to be pretty similar. Well, in theory, it should be pretty similar because we're only consider we're only considering a few days more, but because the bulk of the downswing that we had happened in the beginning of the month, it actually looks vastly different. So tech is up there, that held some sway this month, up 1%, then discretionary, then utilities, but energy took the biggest whack to the downside. And look at that, energy on the opposite of tech here when you look at the monthly totals. Let's go to the next one because we are talking bubbles and there's no bubble in AI yet, is there? Um, anyway, I had a chance to speak with Dan Newman, he's the CEO of Futurum Group. And this was a stocks in translation discussion that we had with him and he's saying that, well, let me just leave it to him. I'll let him speak.

We're building out all this infrastructure, but every quarter you sit around, you listen to Microsoft, they say, oh, we are now generating $10 billion annual run rate from all of this investment. Last I checked, they spent they're going to spend 80 this year. So I think some of this is, when does it start to translate to those CEOs implementing solutions? And then they go back, we're getting value from this. We're running more efficiently. We have agents that are doing tasks for us and actually helping us make money and run our businesses better. I think that gap in there, that white space is where a bubble could potentially exist, but there's so much investment going into seeing that that doesn't become a bubble. This is not the internet bubble.

So look at all that forward thinking there. Uh the bubble, there may be a bubble in the future sometimes when people when businesses actually figure out how to monetize monetize AI in a big way, but we've already seen probably not a bubble, especially looking with the rear view mirror. Um and I think that's the end of that.

So no bubble. Yes. But plenty of volatility, we know. What are the updates there?

Yes, a lot of volatility. And I was checking I was checking through the Yahoo Finance tickers. We actually have at least 15 volatility VIX related tickers and I'm just going to go through a few of them. We're going to start out with the VIX, the original, the VIX volatility index. This is the latest over one year and this big spike here, no surprise. This is what happened over the month of April. Now, this big spike over here, that was Yenmageddon. That was that one-off event that really didn't disrupt the markets that much unless you were in the currency trade. But I want to show you what this chart looks like compared to realized volatility because the VIX is implied. This is what the traders in the options market think about the future. This is what actually happened in the SPX, the S&P 500. Notice it's still trending pretty high here. And when did that trend start? It started the same it started about a month after the election. So sometime in December we got that bottom in realized volatility. We've just been going higher ever since. And we have a lot of other volatility related tickers. We even have the VIX of the VIX. I'm not going to get into that because it tends to make people's head spin. Uh but I'll go back here. The the original VIX is 30-day volatility, but we also have one day volatility. Why would you want to see that? Because that's more retail oriented, whereas the 30-day volatility, the original VIX is more institutionally oriented. But if you look at what the retail traders are pricing in here, that has actually come down more than the institutional. So retail traders, um although they got jostled with everybody else and they got an even higher reading than the original VIX, they have come down even more. Uh so there's a lot in here, but all these tickers available on the Yahoo Finance website.

Fine. What about oil? Gold and gold volatility? What what are they saying?

All right. So let's take a look at oil here because we do have that. Um actually, let's start with gold. Gold is interesting. It's a little bit different than the other than the stock indices than the stock VIXes because as gold goes higher, its volatility tends to go higher. What do we see right now? It's coming off of its peak rather sharply. So maybe the rally and gold losing a little bit of momentum here. Still quite elevated, so I'm not saying the rally is over by any stretch. And then crude oil, crude oil looks a little bit different. It is ticking up again. So we got to track that oil volatility heading into the close.

And we will. Close it buddy. Appreciate it.