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President Trump scheduled remarks coming a day after he threatened Russia with fresh tariffs and sanctions if a deal is not made soon to end its war in Ukraine. Eddie Fishman, he's a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center of Global Energy Policy, author of Choke points, American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, also a former State Department official joining us now. Eddie, it's great to have you here. Let's talk about just how effective or maybe the approach that we've heard so far from President Trump, just given your experience what has worked, what hasn't worked, specifically with Russia. What do you make of his approach this time around?

So look, I think Shana, there were a lot of expectations in the markets, in the diplomatic community that Trump might come in and lift sanctions on Russia absent any significant change in Putin's policy in Ukraine. And I think there is a lot of concern around this because Russia's economy is reeling. So it seems like there's a real opportunity to turn the pressure up on Russia and potentially get Putin to negotiate a just peace in Ukraine. So I think the comments that Trump made yesterday, which signaled that he might actually even increase sanctions on Russia if Putin doesn't end the war, were a really important signal and probably makes it more likely that that Putin doesn't, you know, think he can just wait out the Trump administration and get everything he wants in Ukraine.

With that in mind, it wouldn't also though mean that there'd be more funding that would go to Ukraine from our understanding, right?

Right, that's a very important point. I mean, you know, sanctions and aid to Ukraine are sort of two sides of one strategy, right? The sanctions on Russia are the leverage to get Putin to the table. The aid to Ukraine is absolutely critical to allow Ukraine to continue to defend its country. So I think that we're you're you're touching on an important tension. It'll be very important to see in the next few weeks if there's a signal out of the Trump administration whether they're going to continue backing Ukraine militarily. Because I think if there is a cutoff in aid to Ukraine, Putin might just say, you know what, these sanctions they're really bad for my economy, but if I can stick it out for a few more months, I might be able to roll over Ukraine and get everything I want in that country.

What's the efficacy though of these threats, just given the fact that the trade relationship between the US and Russia is a fraction of what it used to be?

So tariffs don't make any sense on Russia because, you know, we only have about two billion dollars in bilateral trade right now. But you know, with Trump, you have to realize that when he's saying tariffs, sanctions, export controls, he really just means one thing. It's economic coercion. Um, and he did include the word sanctions in his in his comments. So I think were the US to increase pressure on Russia, it wouldn't really be through tariffs, it would be through sanctions. And in that regard, there's quite a lot left to do in terms of sanctioning Russia, in particular the oil sector. So the largest oil company in Russia, Rosneft, is not yet sanctioned, neither is the second largest oil company in Russia, Lukoil. So I think there's an opportunity perhaps for the Trump administration to sanction, you know, turn up some of the heat on Russia's oil sector, potentially also creating room for American oil producers to increase production, which is another goal of the new administration.

With regard to some of the early calculus that we're seeing run by some of the largest names on Wall Street, Jamie Diamond for instance, around tariffs, and I imagine they're also evaluating in the holistic of the geopolitical tensions, whether that be with Russia or whether that be with China, whether or not this is going to be more inflationary. And it sounds like from Jamie Diamond's perspective, he's saying, hey, if we get more US security, then all right, so be it. Bring on the tariffs even if inflationary for a period of time. I wonder how you're evaluating this.

Look, we are living in an age of economic warfare. Sanctions, tariffs, export controls, they're just how great powers compete today. So I don't think what President Trump is doing, while I think it's untraditional in terms of the way he's making off-the-cuff threats and blanket tariffs, you know, there has been a secular trend over the last two decades in US foreign policy of using these tools more often because we've seen greater geopolitical competition. And I think that what Jamie Diamond's comments I think reflect are that, you know, there are sometimes trade-offs between our economic growth, our economic, you know, security at home, as well as our national security. And I think that, um, you know, those trade-offs are real and it's possible that I think if Trump does go forward, especially with his more aggressive tariff threats that you will see resumed inflation, and I would just hope that there would be a good justification for it.