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Tesla is expected to unveil its robotaxi at an event on October 10. Tesla (TSLA) shares are flat year to date as EV demand in the US slows and competition in China heats up.
The stock is a top holding in the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is down about 11% so far in 2024. Ark Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood says of the upcoming event, "Tesla is giving us great comfort, believe it or not, because we've done the research. I don't think a lot of analysts have done the kind of research on autonomous mobility that we have. We have a longer investment time horizon. That's why we've done the research." Wood thinks analysts will have to upwardly revise their estimates for what a robotaxi means for Tesla's bottom line, stating that she sees it as "a software as a service model with 80% gross margins plus on that side of the model, as opposed to 15 to 30% margins on the EV side."
In the interview with Yahoo Finance, Wood explains why she is bullish on Tesla's robotaxi: "This is not if, it is when for Tesla. And for Tesla, it's also how quickly will they roll out? How quickly will they go national, or even global, with their aspirations? As you know, Elon thinks in a very big way and he has positioned Tesla to win the lion's share of this market. And this AI project is a winner-take-most project. The company that gets people from point A to point B the fastest, the safest, with as little wait time as possible is going to win the lion's share of the market."
You alluded to the the fact that your, um, not all your funds have done very well this year, particularly the one we track most closely, the largest of them, the the benchmark ARK, uh, Ark Invest, um, Innovation Fund. Um, you know, we've talked about this many times. You look at a three to five year time horizon here. And your biggest investment's in Tesla, which has had not a good year. So, Kathy, how how are you thinking about all of that right now?
You know, I I'll tell you, uh, when it comes Tesla is giving us, uh, great comfort, believe it or not. Uh, because we've done the research. I I don't think a lot of analysts have done the kind of research on autonomous mobility that we have. We have a longer investment time horizon. That's why we've done the research. As we get to Robo, uh, Taxi Day, 10/10, this week, next week, I think more and more people, uh, analysts are going to have to start modeling what this means. Uh, and I think, uh, as they do, they will conclude that this is a software as a service model with 80% gross margins plus on that side of the model as opposed to 15 to 30% margins on the EV side. And, uh, they're going to have to adjust their expectations up.
Can can I ask you though because, you know, I think in theory, you know, there are some other people who have done that work and who have come to similar conclusions as you. Um, I I'm just not sure what we're actually going to learn at that Robo Taxi day and how close, you know, and maybe you know more from your internal comms with Tesla and from your research into the company. What are we going to hear on October 10th? And what is the timeline for all of this coming to fruition?
Uh, well, I I think they're they're they're going to fill in some of the blanks that we have about when they're going to launch and how they're going to launch. So, uh, that's going to become important. It'll make it more real. Um, and I think that the reason analysts are probably going to take, uh, what Elon is saying more seriously this time, because remember, he's been predicting autonomous in the next two years for the last five years. And I'll say we expected it last year. So, um, but Waymo is now
is now out there. And, and more and more people are trying it. This is not if, uh, it is when for Tesla. And for Tesla, it's also how quickly will they roll out? How quickly will they go national? Or even global with their aspirations? Um, uh, I think as you know, Elon thinks, uh, in a very big way, and he has positioned Tesla, uh, to win the lion's share of this market. And AI, this AI project is a winner take most project. The company that gets people from point A to point B, the fastest, the safest, with as little wait time as possible, is going to win the lion's share of the market. And I think when people, uh, see what, uh, uh, Tesla's strategy is, uh, and and put that together with the fact that wait a minute, Waymo's already doing this. So this must be possible. We don't have to worry about that anymore. How big could this be? Um, well, we publish our model out there. And, uh, it's on our website, arc-invest.com. It's on GitHub. Uh, uh, and you can play with the variables to if you disagree with how optimistic we are, uh, to see how big this market's going to be. It's enormous. From a revenue point of view, the the platform opportunity, uh, those hosting these networks, and Tesla will be one of those. Uh, that's a four to five trillion dollar revenue opportunity in the next five to 10 years, uh, if our research is correct. And, uh, again, it's winner take most. This is a trillion dollar plus revenue opportunity for Tesla in the next five years. It's a big idea.
Be sure to check out the full interview with Ark Invest's Cathie Wood.
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This post was written by Stephanie Mikulich.