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Hello and welcome to Market domination sponsored by Tasty Trade. I'm Josh Lipton live from our NYC headquarters and stocks. They are higher today, poised for weekly wins after an easing in US-China trade tensions. Here's your headline Blitz getting you up to speed one hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street.

There are parts of the market that have languished, but I think everybody acknowledges that AI is a thing, and um the companies that count, which are those in the Magnificent Seven, are not only benefiting from it and Via I'm talking to you, but also.Driving it and that would be Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. So I think because AI is still in the forefront of most growth oriented and certainly momentum oriented investors, that's why they love them.

In the next 2 to 3 weeks we may get something um from the administration as to what it will be right now, the blended rate depending what you're reading is anywhere from 14.5 to 17.5%, that's still 4 to 6 times greater than it was at the start of the year. Tariff rates then were 2.5%.And you heard yesterday Walmart when they reported saying they're gonna have to be increasing prices right now they're absorbing it, they're working with their suppliers, but if Walmart, who is the biggest, you know, um, in the world in terms of sales, you know, is saying they're gonna have to increase prices, that means a lot of other retailers and other people will be.

Novo Nordisk announcing that its CEO is stepping down. The weight loss drug maker citing recent market challenges, and the CEO is expected to stay in the role for a period of time to ensure a smooth transition. Shares moving lower on this news, down by about 3.5% here. We do know that this is going to be a period of transition supporting that smooth transition to new leadership, a search for Jorgensen and success are ongoing.We've got 1 hour to go until the market close, and I am joined now by Adam Johnson, Bullseye ingenuity fund portfolio manager will be hanging out with me for the next 2 hours. Adam, welcome. Great to have you here on set, my friend. Thank you. Let's do a quick check of the markets here. Bottom line, Adam, I've got green everywhere. I got the Dow up more than 300 points, your broad gauge, the S&P 500, we're up 6.1%. Tech heavy gauge your Nasdaq, you're up about 0.5%.Yep, the pint size companies, those small caps they're working to Russell 2000 up about 9.1%. Yes, I know we got the consumer sentiment reading this this morning. It was weak. Investors willing to look right through that started at a high level. Broadly, you look at this market and I know you think there's more to like than fear here. How come?

There's Walk me through it. Well, let's start with the two E's of earnings and employment. Yes, right, um, we have the most number of people ever.Making the highest gross adjusted income ever and thank goodness they are spending money. You can't get a room at the win on the weekend, so don't even try. You can go on Monday or Tuesday, but you can't on the weekends. Uh, Delta, even though they suspended guidance a few weeks ago, CEO Ed Bastian suspended guidance, um, their load factors are up at 83 84%, meaning most of the plane is full, um, so look at what people are doing and they're spending money.And that is why we have strong earnings growth, right? I said earnings and employment, those two E's are related, and they're so crucial to why this economy is stronger than people think. We had 12% earnings growth for the second consecutive quarter, right, and margins were 13%. So not only do you have strong double digit earnings growth, you actually have very strong profitability. In fact, that combination 12% earnings growth, 13%.Margins, that's the best and again for the second consecutive quarter that's the best combination fundamentally we have seen since 2021, right? So that's 4 years. So all the naysayers were so negative recessions inevitable, stagflation. Oh my gosh, Trump's gonna kill the economy with tariffs. No, the goal was never to punish trading partners. It was to level the playing field, get a better deal, and we're starting to see evidence of that, and that's why the markets come roaring back.

Were you surprised by how they were back, by how big?That move was off that April

low. I've got two surprises for you. Uh, the first surprise is how much money I lost as markets went down. I mean, I had a drawdown in, in, in my portfolio. I run the American ingenuity portfolio. I'm a growth guy, so it's growthy stuff. It's volatile, but, uh, I was down 25% to 30% really across the portfolio over 3 to 4 weeks. That is very sobering. The good news is we've made it all back and then.

What were you telling Adam? I'm just curious. Your clients, I'm sure, calling you, and you, and you

saw they were calling, but they were, they never panicked.

They didn't,

not a you have

to hold anybody's hand.

Not a single one because the

headlines were rough. You, the headlines, reports, I know blood in the streets, people retirees getting wiped out.

You know, fortunately, uh, sometimes, uh, we don't learn anything, but fortunately we are resilient people. We're Americans, we're optimists, and we have.Learned from COVID and the lesson from COVID is when things look really bad hang in there because as bad as that was we came out of it and we came out stronger and so that was only when you think about it 4 or 5 years ago and and then there were, you know, a couple of times where we went back down and then inflation soared to 9, 10, 11% in the case of PPI and we got through that and so I think people have come to realize that.Markets, yes, are volatile, but we get through the craziness. And so why would you panic if you panicked at the bottom of COVID and sold your, your stocks, uh, you bought them back and now here we are 4 or 5 years later that that that monkey's still on your back and you're saying, you know what, I'm not gonna let you do that to me this time and I really applaud people for staying long. In fact, arguably it was the retail investor who stayed long, the hedge fund guys who panicked.

Bottom line, more to like than fear. That's it

there's more to like than to fear.

Alright, let's check in on some few trending tickers here. That's sponsored by Tasha. We're going to take a look at shares of Nvidia today, as well as some moves in the oil market. First up, Nvidia reportedly building a research and development center in China. This is according to the FT, the Financial Times. So that made some headlines here. But let's broaden this out a little bit because Nvidia is on a roll here. I mean, the recent moves here.Uh, yes, we know. Deals announced in Saudi Arabia, UAE. I mean, I think also you look at those earnings season, those big tech giants, there was a lot of worries about the AI boom with these customers keep spending. Alphabet reiterates Capex. Microsoft reiterates Meta raises all good news for Jenson Wong. Sure

is. Well, at one point, uh, at that April low that we were just talking about that was so sobering, at one point, Nvidia was cheaper than the S&P 500, right? The S&P 500.The low was trading at about 19 times. Well, Niti was trading because it went down, you know, in the 80s, it was trading at 18 times. I mean, imagine Nvidia, the darling of the AI thing with uh 50, 60, 70% earnings growth trading at 18 times cheaper than the S&P 500. I mean it got so crazy and it wasn't just Nvidia, it was Celestica. It was Marvel. It was semi microcomputer and um they have all come roaring back. It sounds like

Jensen is also very much on.And Trump's good side. He is. He was CFRA. The team of analysts, they said this week our outlook on Nvidia has considerably improved. They told their clients in recent weeks. They talked about favorable policy shifts, more lenient China tariffs, scrapping of the AI diffusion rule. They did mention uncertainty remains around the 232 semiconductor investigation. Earnings scheduled for May 28th. Do you like this name? You

better believe it. Yeah, yeah, I bought this, uh, stock for my clients back when it was in the teens, a teenager, as they like to say on Wall Street, and now asAs as we were just showing, it was what 11,130, 135, etc. and I think going on to new highs. I think you have to own Nvidia. I think of it as core ingenuity, right? Um, I run the American Ingenuity Fund, so I've got a core group of names that I almost never sell, uh, the mag 7. I don't own all the mag 7, but I own the obvious ones Google, Amazon, Apple, uh, etc. Meta, uh, and I think you have to put Nvidia into that core ingenuity. I would also tell you put um.Uh, uh, salesforce.com into, uh, that core ingenuity and Palo

Alto's company

because it's the biggest and best and the first, uh, in customer relationship management. The, the software platforms that help companies mine data to find more sales so they can grow their business. So it's a facilitator of growth. And then Palo Alto Network's largest cybersecurity firm in the world, and, uh, I mean you could argue as to whether they're the best.But they are the largest and they really wrote the book on so much as I love owning best in breed companies. So if you look at those names A Nvidia and then Mag 7, to me that's core ingenuity. I think you have to own those names. In fact, about a third of the portfolio, and I own 41 companies in the portfolio, but a third of the portfolio is, uh, is, is accounted for by those core ingenuity names.

All right, let's, let'sswitch gears here. We're talking oil prices as well, higher today hope growing.For a US Iran nuclear deal, maybe that lifts sanctions, potentially boost global supply. There was different headlines I saw today on this one. I did see reports that Iran's foreign minister actually downplayed prospects for a breakthrough in nuclear talks with the Trump administration, saying no formal proposal had been received. This is for Bloomberg, of course, prices and we know had come under some pressure when President Trump seemed to suggest maybe there we were closer to a potential deal, but give me, give me your take, Adam.

Well this is going to be a very drawn out and complicated negotiation over time. Remember it's not just about the US and Iran or just about Iran's nuclear capabilities. It's also about the, the age old and I mean centuries old.Uh, wrestling match between, uh, Sunnis and Shiites and, uh, Iran is traditionally Shiite and Saudi Arabia is Sunni. That's one reason why those two countries have, have, have been, uh, uh.Well, I don't want to say enemies, but, uh, certainly at odds with one another for uh for so long and so they're just a lot of complicated issues that you and I, I mean we sit here in New York and I'm a Wall Street guy and and you're a half Wall Street half media guy and we can sort of, you know, contemplate what what it means, um, you know, SUNY versus CA, but we'll never really know. We'll never really understand it or appreciate the depth of all of that and that's why all this is going to take a long time. Add to that the fact that.The US is trying to get Saudi Arabia to participate in the Abraham Accords, which is basically a platform that allows or it tries to pave the way for Israel and various Arab nations to come together on more favorable terms. I mean this is complexstuff.

Let me ask you to bring it back though to you as a Wall Street guy. Are there energy names where you say, yes, I want to own this for myclients?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you, you, you, you raise what you're getting at is a very interesting point, and that is I think that part.Part of the reason the Trump administration is reaching out so hard to both actually Russia and Iran is that if we can if there's a truce between Russia and Ukraine and and if there is no more nukes in Iran, you could effectively bring embargoed barrels of oil back on the market, millions of barrels, and guess what, as the price of oil goes down, inflation goes down, there is that issue, and I think that plays into it.And as far as oil names, yeah, when oil gets cheap, and I have a head cold, so now I'm running out of ability to talk here,

but Halliburton,

you wanna own Halliburton. That's it.

And with

that

I need water,getting water. Halliburton's the play. Moving on. Tesla stock on the.After the EV maker added Chipotle present Jack Hartung to its board of directors, Ya finds his raz Sumaraning joining us now with more prize.

You guys are burning out my guy Adam over here, man. I know

he's we gotta get water. We gotta reaching in

for the halls.And I brought with me the honey, the honey

in right here. That, that's a 4, that's a, that's a true TV that's a true TV. It's a pro move. It's me almost every day. Julie Hyman puts up with it, but bring us up to speed on on Tesla pros. Yes,

so, so the a stock on the tear actually, uh, this past this week and also the last 4 weeks in a row, 4 up weeks in a row, Musk just tweeted right now, uh, a picture of the stock chart stock up 48%, uh, in the last month. So a lot going on there with, with the stock, you know, still down 13% for the year, so not exactly.Back to par here. But yeah, a new board member added today, Jack Hartung's former Chipotle president, the 9th board member now added to the to the to the to the committee, uh, you know, this this board has been under a lot of scrutiny lately with uh Chair Robin Denholm sort of selling a lot of stock. They've had to redo Musk's pay package that was again

that's controversialDelaware correct

right now it's, it's on appeal in Delaware. Uh, reports suggest that if that doesn't go through, they're gonna go, they're gonna push it through Texas law this time because they're.The re-domiciled or uh uh new corporate home is is is Texas, so that's what's going on right there. So a lot going on with Tesla from a board management, but also the stock moving today and up potentially for the 4th week in a row.

What happens in April, by the way? I'm very curious about that because, and you've written about this process. Don't you'll hear bulls say that should be a good month because, OK, I have a whole month of refresh model why that's out there. On the other hand, would the skeptics say, well, maybe not.Not so fast because maybe folks think, oh hey, that cheaper version's coming. So I mean how does this balance out,

you know, typically Q1, which was not good for Tesla, is their lightest quarter. It's usually, uh, a quarter where not mean it's not much in terms of sales happening across a number of the regions, usually, you know, Q3, Q4 are their big quarters. Q2 better, usually better than Q1, so that's a lot to kind of watch here. But the April numbers are coming in for some of the territories, you know, Tesla is a report by Geography, so we gotta look at registration data, uh, stuff from cars.and we saw, we've seen Europe now right well actually the China chart but China down 6% in April, uh, based on from their their car association uh numbers there that includes exports too, but down 26% sequentially from March. So you kind of see a little weakness there. And for China it's not really the musk factor, it's more about there's just so much competition, better cars, cheaper cars, uh, technology is more tuned to the buyers. That's sort of the problem for Tesla used to be considered a cool brand in the mainland and now the Chinese domestic automakers are considered the cool.automakers there.

I was talking to auto analysts recently, two pros who were looking over data, and they were kind of suggesting to me that there was maybe some shift of would-be EV shoppers at least being more open, more open to other brands in in the past. I don't know if that's model wide changeover. I don't know if that's branding and politics. Maybe it's everything. I'm not sure.

Yeah, I think it's a mix of, you know, the politicsm sort of behavior, uh, but I think you're absolutely right about the fact there's so much more competition now. Better cars from Hyundai, Ford, uh, GM, even the.full portfolio of EVs, and we're supposed to talk about EVs. They're a small subset of sales. They're growing, but still a small subset. Tesla still is the big gorilla, 800 pound gorilla. Over 40% of sales are Tesla EVs compared to, you know, the rest of everything else. So there's still the, the big animal there. But the question is how long can they maintain that dominance? It's still being chipped away, chipped away, chipped away, uh, in this country at least? Yeah,

I'm going car shopping this weekend, but it's not for an EV prize. It's not more later on that. You're you're a diesel.I like the bird stuff, you know, we're just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, we're gonna preview JPMorgan's Investor Day as all eyes will be on Jamie Dimon's successor plan as his team and CEO CEO is winding down. Plus, Mike Novograts, crypto firm Galaxy Digital started trading on the Nasdaq this morning. I'm gonna catch up with the man himself later in the hour to discuss the debut, as well as what is next for the crypto market. Stick around, much more market domination.Stocks little change on Friday poised for weekly wins after an easing in US-China trade tensions. For more on the latest market moves, let's welcome in here Eric Friedman, US Bank Asset Management Group chief investment officer. Eric, it is good to see you. So you sound broadly positive here, Eric talking about the market, you say the time for being cautious is behind us. How come, Eric, walk us through it.

Yeah, I think it's been a, a, certainly a litany of information, Josh, for us all to try to digest. But, you know, the measurables that we pay attention to for all the things going back and forth in Washington, the consumer is still in relatively good shape. We think that businesses are also in good shape. So, without question, the profit cycle that we've all been accustomed tohas some work left to be done. You know, we certainly got some good information from Walmart last night in terms of pass through of, of price increases, but based on the data we pay attention to, so things like TSA travel and credit card swipes, and restaurant openings and indeed.com job postings, it's still a decent environment. So,That recalibration, I guess I, I, I'd put it more in the sense of adaption and adaptability by consumers seems to be intact. So that's why we're still glass half full, you know, we've oscillated between being either overweight, equities or, or neutral or neutral right now, but certainly with a slightly more positive bias, we think that's probably the way that investors should be positioned as well.

Eric, how would you generally characterize valuation here broadly?

Yeah, you know, I think if you look at the S&P, for example, clearly, you know, 20% ago was a lot more attractive, but, but, you know, I think that right now based on historical metrics, we're about, you know, a half a standard deviation expensive, that's not, you know, out of the realm of possibilities. Certainly in an environment, Josh, where you do have interest rates probably stabilizing to slightly coming down on the front end of the curve, that does give you a little more justification for equity prices to to really.Warrants a slight premium on a valuation standpoint. The things that we find most attractive on a pure evaluation basis, again, valuation is not a catalyst, but if you look at international developed, that's certainly an interesting spot. Uh, we think that financials, specifically in the US, are, are certainly inexpensive. Uh, we think the yield curve probably comes in in a better place for financials. So across sectors versus across broad markets, we think there's certainly pockets of opportunity and so financials.Certainly be one of them. I think the technology, which of course garners a lot of investor interest, that has become much more attractive to us. We think that CapEx, Josh, has been very intact. One of the things we've been really adamant about tracking is just what our corporate commitments for things like cyber and AI spend. That continues to be a consistent message from companies. They're not giving that up. So we think that there's actually some underpinnings in tech. There's certainly parts of the technology.Space it got really inexpensive during the April downdraft, so we think technology deserves a place in inclined portfolios as well.

Eric Adam Jo so, good to see you, and I think you and I kind of view the world similarly in that we're optimists, we see a lot of opportunity. You mentioned that April downdraft. Why is it you think that people got so downhearted and just so negative and and so convinced that the end of the world was nigh? What was it about April that scared people so much?

Yeah, Adam, you did a great job in the prior segment, kind of talking through the, the zeitgeist of, of investors. And, and I think that sometimes institutional investors suffer from the curse of knowledge, you know, because they're so close to the action, there's always this, this desire to do something. And I, again, to be sure, there's the case that we had to really put as a potential outcome ofThe administration really pursuing onshoring of manufacturing as well as a very hard line on the negotiation front. That was really the mantra between April 2nd and and really the intraday period of April 9th. I do think that the administration understood that markets really don't care about Democrat versus Republican. They care about, you know, what is in it from the corporate profits.Cycle standpoint and so once the administration saw that markets really weren't going to allow as as hard a line to be taken, I think that was the response that, you know, we needed to see to keep that glass half full perspective intact.

Eric, I'm curious, you know, in the stock market, you mentioned some sectors you like, so financials, tech, what are some sectors, Eric, you're, you're less enthusiastic about here?

Yeah, I think that, you know, probably the, the top would be on the staple side, Josh, just because, you know, it is certainly a little expensive and, and certainly a, a proxy for, for bond yields, which we think is probably less of an opportunity. We think that was probably more tied to the defensive trade, if you will. You know, I think that utilities have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves as well. Obviously, lots of focus on data centers, lots of focus on cash flow coming from utilities. That would probably be an area where lessenthusiastic. I think that the sector that is probably the swing factor would be the retail space. Obviously was caught in the downdraft for lots of good reasons, but we're really in the hard part right now in terms of this market deciding what it wants to do. Doesn't want to discount a consumer base that will actually just keep spending through the, the price hikes that are going to come in again, more mollified than they would have been, but certainly still price hikes, or will we see aMarket where you know retail is more of a trade, you know, we do think that there is some momentum with consumers. We think there's a lot of bifurcation across lower income consumers versus higher income consumers. So we'd probably be up the quality spectrum a little bit, but, you know, we do think that that retail offers some value. Uh, we think that's a spot that that will not be just a short term trade, but we'll see some, uh, some more sponsorship as we get deeper into thisyear.

Eric, it is always good to see you, always good to have you on the show. Have a great weekend.

Do the same, Josh. Thanks so much.

Well, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's time as top boss is winding down, and at the bank's annual investor day next week, those in attendance will be awaiting clarity on a succession plan. For more on what to expect, let's welcome in here. Yahoo Finance's very own David Holler. David, what do we expect?

Hey Josh, uh, so we expect a ton of stuff from the bank, um, the last of which.Here because, uh, Jamie Dimon is CEO and executive chairman always speaks last would be some update on his timeline, what it is. So a year ago he said he has less than 5 years left,

right? So last year I remember that less than 5 is is the bogey he put out there,

and he offered more clarity in January. He said the base case is still that, so.Things have still changed. Um, we've had one person sort of come out, one contender come out of the race, uh, uh, Jennifer Pipsek, who, uh, she's actually taken the role of chief operating officer, so things have changed a little bit and, and since then I've spoken with a lot of investors and they're very clearly wanting Jamie Dimon more compared to last year.And they did want him last year to stay, so he has to address this to some extent. I'm almost positive he will be asked it, but whether or not to give a different answer from last year, we don't know.

We don't know. How would you generally characterize, David, the, the relationship between President Trump and Mr. Diamond? Because Trump has said some nice things.

I, I, I think you would characterize it as nuanced and complicated.

How so? Walk me through it. Why,

um, you know, I think, um.Uh, uh, Diamond has advised, uh, he advised both presidential candidates leading up to the election, um, unofficially phone calls, that, that sort of thing, and in the past we know too that, um, Diamond and the president have actually gotten into spats like during the, uh, previous administration, so it's, it's a little bit of a toss up of where it stands but the most recent thing has been that.Um, Diamond did an interview on Fox, Fox News, um, and Fox Business Network, excuse me, and, um, uh, the president saw that and well it seemed to be, uh, sort of taken as an endorsement and pretty complimentary so it seems like general generally publicly, um, the vibes between them both are pretty.Good, so I, I don't know where

to

leave it.

You know what I think nuanced. Let's leave it here. That seems fair. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Coming up, Novo Nordic CO stepping down in a surprise move as market challenges weigh on the obesity drug maker to speak to an analyst about what's next on your side. Stick around. Much more market domination. I like it.Novo Nortis announcing a C-suite shakeup as market challenges weigh on that company. CEO Lars Fugard Jorgensen is stepping down after 8 years in the role. Jorgensen will stay on through the CEO transition as the drug maker searches now for a new leader. For more on what's next for Novo, let's welcome in here Evan Sigerman, BMO Capital Markets.Managing director Evan, it's always great to see you, sir. Uh, let's talk about this news. So we've got a, a change in the C-suite, Evan, but let's be honest, this stock is a mess. It's down more than 50% in the past 12 months. Does this decision, does this change affect this company's future and fortunes? Is this, is this the right answer to the problems at that company, Evan?

A lot of questions here. So let's, let's talk about what has happened with the stock and kind of in the arms race between them and Lily. I really think that like every opportunity they've faltered, whether it's supplying the market with regovi, whether it's, you know, giving us unreal.Unrealistic expectations for Karisema, ignoring the threat of an oral small molecule. I feel like at every opportunity, they just kind of dropped the ball. So what does this mean going forward? Well, getting rid of a CEO might feel good, and I'm sure it feels good for the board that said we're going to get rid of him, but rarely does that actually change the strategy and right the ship. So that's what I'm most concerned about. Now, there's no real, there's no one in charge, right? You have a board that's kind of angry. I listen to the call, very defensive.And you don't have that consistent leadership to maybe help get the company out of this situation. You can always do a leadership transition, but I don't know if this is the way to do it.

So it's interesting, Evan, you look at, I mean, I know your market perform here, so you're equivalent of a holder on the sidelines. Even now, Evan, even after the stock is down, you know, lost half its value in the past 12 months, I, I guess you're, you're suggesting your evaluation is still not attractive.

Well, exactly. So we did that. We downgraded the stock a month ago ahead of Orro Gliron, ahead of earnings, highlighting that we thought they were going to cut guidance they did. And it's really when we look at the weekly script numbers, Zetbound is accelerating Magove's flatlining. They might get a bump from the CVS Caremark formulary change come July. That's not.be enough to really change this narrative. So I am on the sidelines. I'm all in on the leaf. I've said that many times on this program, and that's where I'm drawing my line in thesand.

Broader question, Evan, this GOP 1 market. I mean, you know, folks who, who take these medicines, it's refrigeration, it's a shot, right? I mean, there's some challenges there. When is the pill coming in?And do we have a firmer line of sight.

So we had, we had the first set of phase 3 data last month. We're going to get more data in 3Q. Lily plans to file by year end so we could have it on the market, let's say the second half of 2026. So that's, you know, pretty near term given the arc of drug discovery and development.

Evan, always great to see you. Have a great weekend, sir.

Thank you so much. Have a good one.

Well, US consumers have been tumbling further in May as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies remain top of mind for Americans. And joining us now to discuss the latest data, we got Jose Torres, Interactive brokers, senior economist. Jose, always great to see you on set. Should we start there with the consumer sentiment this morning? I know it was weak, but I'm curious as an economist, you saw that print, you saw that headline. What do you makeof

it? You know, sentiment numbers and confidence numbers prior to COVID were huge.indicator as to what consumer spending was gonna be like in the future, but since the pandemic, the inflationary surge, the most substantial since the 1980s really affected the consumer psyche. So we have this disconnect. Look at March, Adam, Josh, March retail sales through the roof sentiment conference numbers in the basement. So we're seeing that significant bifurcation as far as the outlook from here, you know, we have this trade agreement with the UK.A break on China investors and economists, my uh my colleagues very bullish in our prediction market. We're seeing a lot of yes buying on retail sales, GDP, Fed cuts, roughly 3% this year we're expecting based on our prediction market, so really bullish landscape, especially because now we're going to be tilting more to the most positive traditionally GOP playbook kind of policy from the Trump administration.Taxation, milder regulations, low energy costs, and then slower moving onshoring progress in terms of manufacturing.

What's interesting to me about this, Jose, is not only has consumer confidence gone to multi-decade lows, investor confidence multi-decade lows, so sentiment really is completely washed out, and I, ever the optimist, sort of look at that and say, well, is this is as bad as it gets and maybe right with the retail sales numbers hanging in there and the market.Turning already, is that a fair way to approach this?

you know, Adam, I think sometimes with the consumer sentiment numbers, a lot of the folks, the survey respondents, they don't necessarily have a lot of stock holdings, you know, so the concentration of equity holdings tends to be at the upper middle class at the upper end. Those folks don't care as much when they go shopping to see prices up 10%, 20% on some items and that's.So we're seeing such a disconnect, a bifurcation in inflation expectations from the surveys versus market-based inflation expectations in the treasury market. We're seeing huge numbers. One year is roughly 7%, and you miss, you know, in the treasury market, it's in the twos, you know, so we're seeing these crazy um bifurcations and another topic in terms of tariffs, we saw a big separation in yesterday's PPI.Core goods accelerated to the fastest rate in 27 months, but because services, food, and energy countered that increase in core goods costs, we saw the headline PPI actually drop to the steepest level since COVID April of 2020, 60 months ago. So seeing a huge bifurcation, I don't think that the tariffs are going to produce much inflation. I think that we're going to be somewhere in between 2.5 and 3.And I don't think the Fed's gonna have to hike, uh, against that

backdrop. Let me ask you, Jose, one argument I've heard from folks who come on here, put them in a more downbeat camp. A big argument was, I wanna run this past you, was, well, CEOs are gonna get frozen in place among all the tariff uncertainty, then, you know, it's gonna impact investing decisions and spending decisions and head count, and that's gonna tip us into recession. Your response to that is what?

I don't think so because the hiring has been quite buoyant, you know, and that's part of the reason why the Fed doesn't want to reduce rates even though the CPI and the headline PC are at 2.3% right there. So you know they were reducing, uh, in 2024 and 2023 with inflation levels much higher than that, but now they don't wanna reduce because they're not seeing that deceleration.The labor market.

Well, that's a great point, right? The Fed has their dual mandate or trying to do two things at once full employment on one side and price stability on the other. It seems like what they're telling us is we're happy with the employment market and God forbid prices go back up and then we got a problem, right? I mean, I think they're more worried about about inflation returning than than trying to.Help, uh, markets and investors and people buy homes,

you know, Adam, with inflation, there's so many different ways to interpret it, and that's why I think that it's more 70/30 more tilted to the labor market. Once the labor market, once you see payroll gains start to decelerate rapidly like we saw last summer, June, July, August, and that's what motivated that.Double quarter point that 0.5 point cut in September, right? Once we start seeing labor market deceleration, Adam Josh, the Fed is gonna flip right away and start cutting.

Let's say Trump tax cuts. They get extended. Jose, how does that figure into your model and your expectations? Well,

I'm looking for a re-accelerating economic growth. Our prediction market investors also feel that way. They've been dialing down recession odds, buying a lot of the no contracts, retail.Sales GDP buying the yes, you know those tax cuts at the corporate level, at the individual level, that's gonna free up some capital for more consumption, but more importantly for capital expenditures, you know, and we saw in the first quarter GDP report those cap X numbers are really significant, the most since 2021, uh, which was motivated by, you know, the the recovery from COVID as well as the inflation reduction Act of the prior administration. So I think that, you know, that lighter taxation, a lot of folks are worried about the.Revenues, but we've seen this movie play out many times. You have those tax cuts and that investment comes in and it really grows the economy quite organically and structurally.

I like it. You sound bullish. So we were talking about inflation odds and you just mentioned it. I was curious. I actually went back and charted. You can you can actually chart inflation odds over 50 years, and I found the average over the past 50 years is 29%. In other words, at any given moment in time, 29% of people think, or I should say.Economists like you think there's a 29% chance of recession. Uh, where are you on recession? Well,

you know, I was at 50/50 prior to a lot of the trade agreements. Now I'm down to roughly 25%. You know, it looks like the pre the Trump administration, they have a lot of folks that want to talk. They, they're even saying, listen, we don't have the staff, we don't have the headcount, you know, maybe some of us here are gonna have to go over there and help them negotiate. They don't have the headcount to accommodate 150 countries that want a deal, so it's gonna take.

And that's bullish and argues against recession because trade's gonna work out

absolutely trade is gonna work out. You're not gonna have these kinds of uh separated supply chains and significant regionalization. We're still gonna be working. It's still gonna be a globalized kind of cross border commerce landscape, but it's gonna be the US is going to demand a little more than what it did in the past. We're not gonna be free traders and everyone else having.Levies having rules having currency manipulation tactics, you know, we're looking to level the playing field a little bit, you know, a lot of the areas in the country, particularly in the middle of the country, you know, uh, they'd love to see a little bit of a resurgence in manufacturing even if we don't recover the 6.8 million jobs that were short from the peak in 1979, even if we get 2 million of those back, you know, that would be really good news for a lot of the communities around thecountry.

Sure would. Jose, always great to see you, especially on set. Thank you, sir.

Thank you, Josh. Thank you, Adam. Greatto see you.

Thank

you.

Coming up, Mike Novogratz's crypto firm Galaxy Digital started trading on the Nasdaq this morning. I'll catch up with Mike on the other side to discuss the debut as well as what is next for the crypto market. Stick around, much more market domination. That's still to come.Galaxy Digital makes its NASDAQ debut today, trading under the ticker symbol GLXY. It is a significant milestone for the crypto financial services firm. It previously traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and we're now joined by CEO Mike.Novogratz. Mike, welcome on what is, I know a big day, Mike. So Galaxy Digital, uh, starts trading this morning on the NASDAQ through a direct listing. To start, Mike, I'm just curious. Walk us through what this means for you, Mike, for the company, for the broaderindustry.

Yeah, listen, it was an emotional day. It was surprising. I remember 15 years ago when we took Fortress Public, there was a lot of joy and cheering and high fives, and we had set out to do something that was very difficult and did it. Uh.I think partly because of my age, uh, partly because of just how hard crypto's been, you know, so many times, you know, I mean, in 2018, there was a 96%, 97% fall from high to low. I mean, I, you know, I've never heard of a 96% fall. Uh, 2022, we had all the scandals and another huge fall.And so, uh, for my team, for my partners, our investors, you know, to kind of stick it out through thick and thin, it just felt like, uh, so 11 part of it felt like, you know, you're ringing the bell of the finish line. But then when I really thought about it, everything we built for was this institutional moment that's here, and that bell is really the starting line. Um, you know, we have two great businesses now. We have a data center business, an AI data center business, mostly based in Texas.Uh, that I think will be the largest data center in America by 2029, um, 2030. And it's gonna grow beyond that. And so that's been fun. It was a great pivot, uh, from Bitcoin mining, and it's gonna give a lot of shareholder value. And then we have a crypto business that was literally tailor built for this moment when institutions want to join.And we're gonna get re, we're gonna get legislation done on Monday for stablecoins down in DC. I'm proud of the uhThe senators on both sides, especially the Democratic senators, because, you know, they had a far left wing that was squawking and didn't want to do this. And, you know, to get any bipartisan legislation done right now in this moment of complete divisiveness in the country, uh, is a testament to both, you know, the senators on the right and left, right? That's, you know, Senator Warner, uh, and Gallegos, uh, reallyCamp, you know, running the, the campaign on the Democratic side and, and, uh, Tim Scott, but mostly, uh, Haggerty, uh, from Tennessee who's really pushed this thing through. Uh, and it's great. And so, you know, all of a sudden, an industry that was hated for four years has a CAT SEC chair, uh, who's pro crypto.The entire infrastructure from OCC to CFDC is pro crypto, they're embracing us as opposed to chasing after us, uh, and prosecuting us, uh, and now we're getting legislation and so, you know, it's a huge tailwind for the industry, not just for Galaxy, but the whole industry, but, and we plan on taking advantage of it.

So Mike, I'm curious, you know, given the two business segments as you point out there, uh, crypto and AI data center, who would you consider Mike, your competitors here?

I kind of think we're a unicorn in that respect. Uh, listen, there are other crypto companies that do a great job and we think we're gonna compete head to head with them. Um, and there are data center companies, and there are other crypto mining companies that are pivoting to AI, but no one really doing both under the same roof. And so, you think of us as a holding company with two businesses that have some synergies in between.They're both growth businesses. Uh, getting on the NASDAQ and having access to the deepest capital markets is an essential, uh, you know, part of our success, and so we're thrilled, we're thrilled to be here. Uh, but yeah, I don't see, you know, there's, there, there's, there's not another company that's kind of doing both at the scale we are. Mike,

I, I also just have a broader Bitcoin question for you. You know, you, you think about gold's market cap. It's roughly, let's call it 22 trillion. Do you think someday, Mike,Bitcoin could be half of that. Yeah, you're getting ahead of me, but if yes, then here's my next question. If yes, if Bitcoin could someday be half of that, let's say, what does that depend on, Mike? Is that, does it get there through just current momentum? Would that depend on certain regulatory changes? Walk me through it. So

when I bought Bitcoin at 100, uh, IYou know, spoke at a conference. I didn't know the press was there, and they, next thing you know, I was on the cover of the FT. And then I got asked over and over to come speak about this crazy, you know, invention or digital money, or, you know, wacky, wacky dream of a bunch of cypherpunks. Uh, andI started telling the story and trying to convince people why this made sense. And there were lots of other storytellers. In Bitcoin parlance, we call it orange pilling. Uh, when Larry Fink got orange pilled, when a skeptic became a prophet, uh, and he happened to be the CEO of the largest asset management company in the world, that was the tipping point. And why Bitcoin's gonna just keep growing is adoption.You know, as more and more people are in the tent and say, this is a store of value for me, right? It's not the technology that makes it a store of value. It's the social construct that I think it's got value. Larry thinks it has value. Lots of people think it has value, therefore, it has value. And you're seeing it, right? I was in the Mideast, one of the big sovereign wealth funds, and after Donald Trump made his big speech at Nashville, at Bitcoin Nashville, he told me, US is getting in, I'm getting in. And sure enough, they end up buying, you know, over half a billion dollars.Um,That's happening every day, and so the adoption snowball crested the hill and is now rolling downhill and picking up speed.And that's it. We will be as big as gold one day. If you think about it, young people love Bitcoin. Right? Warren Buffett doesn't like it. Charlie Munger hated it. You know, old people, it just didn't resonate with them. But old people are dying. Rest in peace, Charlie. And that money gets passed down to younger generations. And so there's gonna be a natural shift as the, the, the greatest concentration of wealth in the baby boomers gets passed down.

So that's the bull case, Mike. I am curious to also get your take on, you know, I'm an investor. I'm listening to this, and I think Mike's making great points. What are the risks I should think about though as well? I was looking at Bitcoin volatility right now actually, actually looks kind of relatively tame if I compare a single stock leverage ETFs. So is volatility the risk, or, or how do youget through those

ironically.What would slow its ascent down is if the US government would get its act together and Scott Besson's dream of 3% growth and 3% uh deficit came true.IfOur deficit went from 7 to 3 instead of from 7 to 8. If our debt went from $35 trillion and started heading back to $25 trillion you wouldn't need Bitcoin. You wouldn't need to be long gold. Uh, it doesn't mean it's gonna crash at that point because there's still adoption and there are other countries that are profligate as heck.But Bitcoin has always been a report card on fiscal stewardship.And, you know, as much as Scott wants a 3% deficit, uh, you're looking at this, this tax bill coming up, you're looking at tariffs, you're looking at, you know, adding $1 trillion to the military, it just doesn't add up.And as an American, I pray that we end up getting sane fiscal and monetary policy, um, but I don't believe it's gonna happen. So it's not for like a trying.

So in other words, Mike, if, if I could bend debt to GDP in a way that wasn't so scary, that would be a risk. But it sounds like you're making the case that, that just is politically very tough to getdone.

You know, we have populism on the left and populism on the right. Uh, most of us Wall Streeters would, would die for a centrist president.Right? Like, we haven't had one. We thought Biden was gonna be one and he pivoted right to the left, uh, andAnd so, yes, if debt to GDP started heading back to double digits.Use my story for Bitcoin would be a lot less exciting.And again, I don't think it collapses because of adoption, but I wouldn't be long gold if that, if I knew debt to GDP was gonna be 95% in 3 years, I wouldn't be long gold, and I wouldn't be long digital gold.I just don't believe it.

Mike, you mentioned that adoption curve. I wanna ask you a different question, which is, um, going back to politics, the moves the Trump family makes in this space in crypto ventures, does that, Mike, does it help adoption of crypto? Does it hurt adoption of crypto? Does it do neither? Walk me through it.

Now listen, so to be clear.The Trump administration has been nothing but good for crypto in terms of regulation and now uh we're gonna see uh the legislative agenda. And, and the last one was terrible, and I'm a Democrat. Um,What I have said, you know,Consistently is.Uh, you know, the Trump kids have a right to participate in crypto, and they're excited about it. And as long as they stay within the law, they should have the same right as everyone else. If they break the law, uh, just like if I break the law, they should be in trouble. I do think it gave theFar left, Elizabeth Warren and her comrades, uh, an excuse to say corruption doesn't, doesn't feel good, and almost scuttled the, uh, stablecoin bill, because, you know, politics are politics. And that's why I'm so proud of the, the senators, uh, in the center who kept this thing together. Because, listen, it's a good political talking point. Uh, you know, the coin doesn't feel right for the president to, to issue one.Uh, that's very different than his, his kids setting up, you know, crypto businesses. Uh, when you had Trump coin and Melania coin, it just was really hard to say, oh, that feels great. Um, and so, listen, with President Trump, you know, what we've all learned is, he's a different kind of president. You gotta take the good with the bad. Uh, you don't have to take it. You don't have to vote for him, but that's what you're gonna get. And, uh, and so, net net, I think,This administration has been great for crypto. Uh, do I wish we didn't have Trump coin and Melania coin? Yeah, I do. Uh, but, you know, we're gonna live with it.

Mike, thank you again so much for your time today. We appreciate it, sir.

Thanks a lot.