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Tesla 'should take a look' at Nissan opportunity, analyst says

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Japan is reportedly pursuing an investment from Tesla (TSLA) in Nissan (7201.T, NSANY), according to reporting from the Financial Times, after merger talks fell through between Nissan and Honda (HMC, 7267.T). CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson shares his read of the report and the electric vehicle (EV) space at large with Seana Smith and Brad Smith on Morning Brief.

"No question, it's a difficult environment, especially if you're a small EV startup that maybe went public three or four years ago," Nelson says, nodding to Nikola's (NKLA) recent bankruptcy filing.

"I think Nissan would like to do a deal with Tesla. We know that there are discussions with Honda, [that] reportedly fell through recently," the analyst says, adding, that Nissan is "in a very difficult spot" as "they're like a lot of traditional automakers and that they've been losing market share for a long time now, both to Chinese upstart automakers as well as companies like Tesla who have grown their volume dramatically over the last few years."

00:00 Speaker A

Elsewhere in the world of EVs while we have you, Garrett, it seems like there is some type of brouhaha forming at least in the will they won't they in the terms of an investment, uh, potentially between Tesla and Nissan. You do have the denial that came out. That is fresh in recent hours as well. That a former board member at Tesla, uh, is ultimately kind of pushing back against this FT report here. So all these things considered, what are you anticipating could be the environment for EVs knowing that you're going to have federal tax credits that get rolled back this year and then also you have even more of the entrenchment that Tesla is looking to steer forward?

01:39 Garrett

Yeah, no question. It's a difficult environment, especially if you're a small EV startup that maybe went public three or four years ago. Earlier this week, you saw bankruptcy filing from Nikola. Uh, last June, you saw Fisker file for bankruptcy. The cash burn rates are just unsustainable for these companies. So, um, so it's very difficult, very difficult environment for Rivian, Lucid and others. Um, as far as the Tesla news, I think this is, uh, Nissan would like to do a deal with Tesla. We know that their discussions with Honda, uh, reportedly fell through recently. They're in a very difficult spot. They're like a lot of traditional automakers and that they've been losing market share for a long time now. Um, both to Chinese, uh, upstart automakers, as well as companies like Tesla, um, who have grown their volume dramatically over the last few years. So, um, Tesla hasn't indicated any interest in Nissan, but we do think they should take a look at this opportunity. You know, it could make sense for them. Um, a few years ago, they put out a long-term goal of growing their annual volumes, uh, to 20 million vehicles sold per year by 2030. That is a very lofty goal and from our perspective, we just don't understand how they would possibly get there unless they make some, some acquisitions. Tesla has long showed a preference for Greenfield's growth, for organic growth, and they haven't done much of the way of acquisitions, the one exception being their Fremont, California factory, which they bought from Toyota in 2010, but, um, this isn't really in their wheelhouse, uh, you know, to do something like this, but we do think it makes sense for them to at least look at everything, uh, makes sense at the right price in our view.

06:11 Speaker A

Garrett, I think at least from some of the initial reactions that I'm reading this morning, there's just some questions around the synergies, right? And I guess how quickly Tesla would potentially be able to use some of these Nissan factories. What, from your assessment, what does that look like? Is that a concern?

07:05 Garrett

We think, you know, reportedly, they're shopping their, uh, some of their North American plants. And so we do think that makes sense for Tesla. The problem is Tesla, like, really prefers to build from scratch, utilizing the latest in, uh, production techniques, robotics, and, uh, other methods to really drive down their unit costs and gain a competitive advantage over all other automakers. That's what they've done. You've look, look at the Austin factory, Berlin, Shanghai, the new factory that they're planning to build in Mexico, all greenfield plants. So this would be out of the ordinary for them, uh, to buy, uh, you know, assets, but we think Nissan is sort of in somewhat of a distressed situation and, uh, we think they could potentially acquire those plants at the right price. So it's something they should look at.

09:13 Speaker A

All right, Garrett, great to talk to you. Thanks so much for making the time to join us.

He notes that "Tesla hasn't indicated any interest in Nissan, but we do think they should take a look at this opportunity. It could make sense for them."

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.

This post was written by Naomi Buchanan.