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Want to start on a theme I I was just talking about with Julie there, about the economic data we're getting, um, David this week. So manufacturing and jolts we got just got the the Fed's Beige Book, David. It showed you know, the number of districts reporting flat or declining activity actually jumped from five to nine. It does feel, David, like growth concerns starting to bubble up again. I wonder if you share those concerns.

Exactly, it does feel a lot like the beginning of August, you know, at this point in time. Now, overall we do think the stock market here is pretty fully valued. In fact, it's actually a couple percent above a composite of our fair values. So not necessarily surprised to see, you know, a little bit of choppiness, a little bit of a pullback here, you know, in the short term. And as you mentioned, I think the market right now is just trying to digest a slowing rate of economic growth. Now in our view, it's not necessarily surprising. We've been in the soft landing camp for quite a while. We're actually looking for GDP in the first quarter I'm I'm sorry, in this current quarter here, you know, to slow down to 1.7%. We expect it to slow sequentially through the end of the year getting all the way down to 1.2% in the fourth quarter, going to 1.1% in the first quarter, and then just slowly starting to reaccelerate thereafter. So from our point of view, when I look at the macroeconomics out there, I think the, uh, the tailwinds right now are pretty much offsetting the headwinds. So that's why I would still consider, you know, from a market point of view to stay at a market weight depending on your portfolio allocations. You know, from the tailwind point of view, we expect inflation to continue to keep moderating from here. We're looking for long-term interest rates to be really on a multi-year decline and then, of course, for the Fed to start easing monetary policy. So really, the only headwind is that slowing rate of economic growth.

Um, could be a big headwind though, David, I guess, depending on how much it's slowing, right? So I I did see some commentary today that the Fed, even before Friday's jobs report would have enough material given some of the economic data we've already gotten to cut rates by a half percentage point. If they do that, what do you see as the sort of equity market reaction?

I'd actually be very concerned if they cut by 50 basis points. Now, if they cut by 50, I think that actually could send the wrong signal to the marketplace. You know, of course, the Fed has been just laser focused on inflation for, you know, the past two years now. For them to come out with a 50 basis point cut, it's really going to tell the market that they're actually much more concerned about the potential for a recession in the near term than they are about inflation. You know, in that case, I think instead of, you know, the market actually viewing that positively, I think the market would look at that negatively, and we could actually see in, uh, see stock sell off in that case.

And so David, so you wouldn't be looking for a supersized 50, you'd be looking for a more traditional 25. How how do you think the market would respond to 25? And what's the pace of cuts you would expect after that?

I think at this point the market's fully baked in the 25 basis point cut, so I don't really think there's going to be a huge market reaction, you know, to the Federal Reserve. We're looking at 25 basis point cuts, you know, each of the meetings, you know, thereafter. So we're looking at, you know, by the end of next year the Fed to get down to about three to three and a quarter percent range by the end of 2025. And even just as importantly, we are looking for a multi-year period of long-term interest rates coming down. So for the 10-year, we're currently forecasting the 10-year to get to three and a half percent by the end of this year, then falling to 3% by the end of 2026. So I think that will help, you know, propel the market, give the market, you know, good tailwind here over the next, you know, call it 15 months or so.