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Hello and welcome to market domination sponsored by TC trade. I'm Julie and that's Lipton live from our New York City headquarters. Stocks soaring today following a US China trade troops to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs. And here's your headlines get you up to speed one hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street.

We achieved a total reset with China.After productive talks in Geneva.Both sides now agreed to reduce the tariffs imposed after April 2nd to 10% for 90 days as negotiators continue in the largest structural issues.The talks in Geneva were very friendly. The relationship is very good. We're not looking to hurt China. China was being hurt very badly. They were closing up factories. They were having a lot of unrest.And they were very happy to be able to do something with us.And the relationship is very, very good. I'll speak to President Xi maybe at the end of the week.Some prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices will be reduced almost immediately by50 to 80 to 90%. Big pharma will either abide by this principle voluntarily or will use the power of the federal government to ensure that we are paying the same price as other countries.

Look at that an all President Trump headline blitz today. We got an hour to go until the market closes. We're taking a look at the major averages and obviously it is the president who is affecting markets today. He with some a little assistance from Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, a meeting with Chinese officials over the weekend in Switzerland and as we know, coming out with the reduction in tariffs at least.Now to 30% for stuff incoming from China. So the Dow rising almost 100 points by 2.6%. The S&P 500 up 3%. The Nasdaq up 4%, all of them seeing the biggest gains in about a month. The Russell 2000 also participating. It's about 3.5%. It is a risk on day, so the US-China trade.Truce or reprieve, Julie, maybe detente, whatever you wanna call it, you can see that big relief in the markets today. Our colleague Josh Schaffer has a really good piece and and I know we're gonna talk to Josh later in the show about it. And basically Josh had the chance to speak to some very well known, very well regarded strategists, and they were kind of trying to make sense of the moves today and some of them just telling Josh, listen, at the end of the day they're just reminding us markets are about expectations, right? And relative to expectations they're point to Josh.Was the short term news is being clearly taken as better. Yes, to put it in perspective, of course, when you look at the year to date chart of the major averages, they're still down a little bit or a little changed at best, right? So this is not a the coast is totally clear and we're growing gangbusters. It's things aren't as bad as they seem to be here for April 8th low exactly, exactly. So that's kind of the vibe.That we are getting at in today's session. Here's the Nasdaq 100. If you take a look here, you really see some big moves on the part of large gap tech in particular. I mean, Amazon, it's clear here what the tariff implications are when you see a stock like that up by nearly 8%. It's clear for something like an Apple as well, obviously, although they had already gotten some exemptions, but nonetheless up 6% today. It's less clear what the direct effect is on.Something like a meta and Meta is up more than those guys. It's up 7.6%, but there were some implications for if we get an economic downturn, will you see the strength in advertising, etc. So there's a lot of feed throughs for everyone, even if it's just sentiment wise, right? Absolutely. Let's get more on this because stocks climbing, as was pointed out, as the US and China agree to reduce tariffs for the next 90 days. President Trump highlighting the reduction in a press conference earlier today.

We achieved a total reset with China.After productive talks in Geneva.Both sides now agreed to reduce the tariffs imposed after April 2nd to 10% for 90 days as negotiators continue in the largest structural issues.

Well, here to help us break down the details now is our finance Washington correspondent Ben Workel. Ben.

Hey guys, yes, so quite a, quite a series of rapid fire developments today after this early morning announcement of this 90 day pause from 145% tariffs on the US side and a 125% on the Chinese side. Um, 11 through line today I think is we're kind of getting a sense of the key next steps to come, um, as we're, as we're digesting this deal. The first one you alluded to at the beginning, which is a.Trump meeting with President Xi Jinping, he said that could happen as early as this week. Um, that would be a major moment in terms of kind of finalizing a lot of the underlying issues here that are that are kind of a bit being glossed over by this, by this, by this, this um tariff reduction but are really complicated and they have to figure out at least the next steps on to sort of see momentum continue here. The next is more meetings between.Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and his team and the Chinese. Besson said today he expects those in the coming weeks, so that could follow quickly. There's a clear desire here on the part of the White House, at least to keep momentum going here. And then a third one that I think people maybe aren't recognized enough is the other tariffs that Trump has in the offing that could complicate the story. I think Trump, it was important that Trump made a note today.That this deal does not include pharmaceutical tariffs, which he said that he alluded to the fact that they are coming. He's promised that pharmaceutical tariffs and semiconductor tariffs will be announced in the coming weeks. There's investigations ongoing on those fronts, so those are coming and those are going to be big moments in terms of kind of what this overall tariff picture as we kind of have another 90 day clock ahead of us between the US andChina.

And of course he also signed a separate executive order having to do with drug prices.We're going to talk more about that a little bit later in the show, but there's another question I have for you about the China tariffs, which is recently we had the removal of the so-called de minimis exemption, right, that goods worth $800 or less that were being imported into the US had been exempt for a long time from tariffs until what was it, uh, a week ago Friday or whatever it was. So, um, so does this affect that at all? Do we know?

It does not appear to affect that. This is a good example I think of, uh, if you're in this sector, you're, you're better, you're definitely better than you were yesterday, but you're worse than you were on January January 2nd. So the, the de minimis exception was revoked. It was on May 2nd. This, this allows these, these goods under $800 to, to have duties on them. They will get a decline in their tariffs because of this deal, if it, if it's coming from China. So the 145 to 30% is a, is a big.Break for for these companies. These are Chinese firms that that would import things, um, import things directly but as I mentioned that there's no clarity. There's there was no mention of the de minimis exception in the in the joint statement and and and the leaders didn't bring this up. So the de minimis exception appears to still be revoked, so you're kind of better than you were better than you were a few days ago, but you still are paying duties um to the government,

right, definitely. All right, Ben, thank you so much appreciate it.And stocks are continuing to climb as the US and China agree to slash those tariffs for at least 90 days. But as US markets celebrate, our next guest says the agreement could be a bigger win for China. Joining us now is Zhang Wen Liu, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Zoe, thank you so much for being here. So, um, a bigger win for China. Why is that?

Julie, thank you very much for having me. You know, I think this is in fact uh a bigger, a bigger win for China, not, not just because basically the Trump administration over the weekend has nearly undone the Liberation Day tariff uh over China, but then on top of that, it seems.That the whole strategy of building allies to isolate China with regards to building a huge tariff wall to separate us versus China, that strategy seems to not be working because China, uh, our tariffs on China, the Trump administration's tariff on China now is only 10% higher.

So, so, what, what comes next, do you think? Because Besson was talking to press this morning and suggesting he'd be meeting with Chinese counterparts again in the next few weeks, kind of iron out a bigger agreement. What, what do you think the bigger agreement looks like?

Josh, you are, you are right to point out that uh Secretary doesn't mentioned uh the, the mechanism and in fact, in, in writing in the agreement, they mentioned about the mechanism for continuing the conversation. Now, here is the trick, right? Although some um uh Trump administration officials framed this as if we haveReached a we, we have reached a breakthrough, we have reached a deal, but you do not see the Chinese call it this way. The Chinese frame they said we reached a, we, we made progress in uh resolving differences, but the Chinese never said that this is a, a major breakthrough. So going forward, we probably will see a continued conversation between the two.And now we have 90 days for both sides to figure out what they want and what they are willing to compromise. But ultimately so far we still see a symmetry in terms of governance style. On the one hand, President Trump has featured prominently in media, and then on the other hand, President Xi Jinping has never given any comment about a tariff yet.

So, so, I can't help but wondering what the point of this exercise was. Now we know it's not done yet, so we don't know what the two sides will agree upon. We don't know what the US will get out of it, but the US initiated this. So what does a best case scenario look like and does it put the US in a better place than it was on January 1st day?

I'm afraid, Julie, that I'm not as optimistic because, you know, it is relatively easy to undo the self-inflicted tariff rates, but it is very hard to undo the damage that it has done to America's credibility and perhaps to a certain extent to the role of the US dollar, not.Just in the short term, but also in the long run. Now, the best case scenario for American consumers perhaps it would be, we return to the pre-liberation data scenario. Um, but that is going to take a lot, take, take a time. And then, uh, the better scenario, the, the, the best case scenario for American manufacturers.Is that through a period of time and that this is going to be a long period of time that American suppliers, American manufacturers, American industries were, are able to build an alternative supply chain relatively independent of China, but this is going to take forever and we simply cannot bring all the manufacturing jobs back to America through tariffs.

Zoe, I'm curious to find out more, get your line of sight on what's going on on the ground in China right now. I asked because Kyle Bass, Zoe, posted on X yesterday. Let me, let me read you what he said. He said China came begging to the United States as thousands of Chinese businesses shuttered and failed.And every day over the last few weeks, factory activity, he says, contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months. Widespread factory closures and job losses. Worker protests have erupted in various regions. That sounds obviously he's painting a rough picture. Zoe, I'm curious, does that, does that dovetail with your understanding?

Uh, Josh, you know, the, you, you're absolutely right. There are a lot of these kind of narratives over the past few months and even since the, since, since last year, this kind of a triumphant uh tariff over China that is going to not just crash the Chinese economy but perhaps through the crashing of the Chinese economy leading to higher unemployment that is going to destabilize the Communist Party regime. And I think is thisKind of overly sedated triumphant narrative lead to the Trump administration officials overestimation of their leverage over China. And, you know, in fact, we are what we are observing now is that this is not a terrorist war. This is really about who can endure pain for longer. And guess what? Our liberation, the Trump administration's Liberation Day tariff for last.barely for 39 days, which basically means that um from viewing from Beijing's point of view, they now have a better, better understanding of the timing of how long the Trump administration could endure the pain, the pressure from American business from a US domestic constituencies, but on top of that, China has also uh augmented.It's a series of domestic measures to fight back against US coercive measures, including but not limited to export controls. So overall, uh, I'm afraid that a lot of these triumphant narratives led to the mismanagement of the trade relationship with China. I think it's OK to be tough on China, but you ought to be smart in executing it.

So Zoe, was there indeed though, you know, protests on the ground in China and this sort of groundswell of protest against the Chinese administration?

Uh, protest, uh, uh, this is, uh, this is really in terms of numbers and the scale. And, uh, we, even during COVID time, people and the media and the social media reported about protest again on Chinese people going on the street, and it is for, it has been for a lot of reasons for zero COVID, for COVID lockdown, for people losing theirJobs for a fire inoumi and now for factory closure or for people who haven't, who has not got paid. So people have protested for decades for various reasons and this is not the first time. And guess what, the Chinese government has spent more money on maintaining domestic stability than on national defense. In other words, they understand how to mitigate the domestic risk.

So, always great to see you on the show. Thanks so much for joining

us. Thank you for having me.

Stocks soaring today in the wake of that US-China trade truce. For more on the rally and what it does mean for investors moving forward. Let's welcome in now Christian Chan, asset market chief investment officer. Christian, great to see you on set. Thanks for having me. So the US-China trade truce, we'll call it, Christian. I mean the market is clearly very happy about it.You was excited about what you're reading today, the headlines, the reports, Christian, you know, I am cautiously optimistic on what this means, and in my view, what this really means for markets is that the worst case scenario is largely taken off the table. And when you think about market expectations, I really do think about the probability weighted view of what might happen.And if that worst case is off the table, then I think there's really good reason to rally. But rally from here, I mean, as I was talking about earlier, if you look at the year to date now for the S&P 500, we're not much changed. We're down like less than 1%.So yes, the worst case scenario is off the table, but if you look at where we were January 1st, there are now 30% tariffs on China. There are 10% tariffs on everywhere else in the world. So does a 1% decline in the S&P 500 year to date price that in?You know, I, I think it actually prices in, um, a potential, you know, a potential range of outcomes, and when I kind of think about what happened over the weekend again that worst case is off the table and as long as companies can adjust their supply chains over time, um, I think they'll continue to be able to grow earnings and that I think provides a little bit of uh an off ramp if you will, for the equity markets in order to.Continue to grind higher. So when I think about tariffs, yes, we were at 25% before this weekend, and now we're at roughly 10%, kind of a weighted average tariff if you will, and from the US perspective all of last year we were at about 2.5%, so there's definitely an increase, um, I'd say impulse of stagflation, right, lower, lower growth, higher inflation, but I think the economy and.The the data has so far shown that the economy coming into this year coming into Liberation Day was strong enough, I think that we will be able to, you know, avoid a recession or at least a deep one, and I think a deep recession is, is almost off the table if we could get an agreement hammered out with China. So, when you, when you saw those reports today, did that change in any way or affect your views of the Fed, how many times they cut and when they cut?Not for me, but I think markets clearly, yeah, I think we were pricing at 4 cuts as, you know, as recently as 2 or 3 weeks ago. Now we're at about 2 cuts, which is what the Fed forecasted all along and our read of last week's, uh, you know, conversation of the press conference with Powell was that they were gonna be very patient in terms.Of of of cutting rates and using really all three mechanisms and did that did that did that decision make sense to you? Did you think that was the right one? Yeah, I think it did. I think it did because you never know what's gonna happen in these negotiations. I don't think anybody thought that this would necessarily happen, um, you know, in, in the subsequent weekend, um, but I think, you know, Chairman Powell will not only decide, you know, to raise or to lower, but it'll also think about the pacing, right, how long it waits between each Fed action, and then also the magnitude is it one or is it 2?Um, so if you're looking at where to position in the markets right now and you're looking at some of the groups that are rising today because they're not gonna be as severe an outcome as thought, you know, retailers we've been seeing tech we've been seeing, do you go into those areas today given that there's relief on some of them or?Do you sort of position not trying to guess what's going to happen with the tariffs? Yeah, I would be inclined to lean into some of those areas, including the technology and semis, that rallied really strongly on the news today because not only do we have potential some trade tension relief, but we also have tailwinds that we.Saw, um, throughout the first quarter. So when you look at the first quarter GDP report, we saw good investment spending on largely technology and AI development, which I think will be a great tailwind for those types of companies. What about the sell America the Christian? I was hearing so much about that just a few weeks ago. Were you ever a believer in that?Um, you know, at the margin, I was more a believer of a, a very gentle rebalancing of dollar-based assets around the world. If you look at central banks around the world, they're overly allocated to US dollars, I think from most people's perspective. Um, so what we've seen really over the last 5 years is just a rebalancing away from being overweight to the US dollar for a lot of reasons. All right, thanks so much for being here, Christian. I appreciate it.We're just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, President Donald Trump announcing a new executive order forcing drug makers, or actually asking drug makers to lower prices. That's sending shares of those companies higher because the feeling was it could have been worse. We're going to talk about the president's plans and discuss what's next for the industry when market domination returns.President Trump announcing his intention to cut drug prices on Truocial this morning. Trump also talking about his plans for Big Pharma during a press conference earlier today.

Some prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices will be reduced almost immediately by50 to 80 to 90% big pharma will either abide by this principle voluntarily or will use the power of the federal government to ensure that we are paying the same price as other countries.

For more, we're bringing in now Ye's Jordan Weissman. Jordan, great to see you. Walk me through what you make of today's announcement, Jordan.

Uh, you know, as one of the experts I was talking to today told me, uh, this executive order really raises more questions than it provides answers. Um, you know, Donald Trump is talking about, uh, implementing what he's calling a most favored nation plan, where the US would pay no more for prescription drugs than the lowest number that or the lowest amount that other developed nations pay. He actually tried to do something like this at the end of his last term.They rushed a version of it out, a slightly narrower version of it out the door at the end of 2020. And um I think the technical term for what happened was he got absolutely stuffed by the courts. Um, a federal judges blocked the plan basically on technical grounds, saying that they hadn't, uh, kind of crossed every T and dotted every I that was necessary, but the lawsuits also suggested there were a lot of other challenges that a plan like it could face. Um, Trump here.is talking about kind of going at it more aggressively using uh kind of job-boning companies to try and go along with it, and then using regulation and maybe even investigations to force them to comply, and then also trying to pressure our trade partners to, uh, you know, pay more for prescription drugs so that pharma companies don't feel the need to charge Americans as much. Um, it's ambitious, will it work? Who knows, it'sIt's hard to people I've talked to are expressing some skepticism. Let's put it that way.

Jordan, one of the ways that Trump does have maybe a little bit more power is with the prices that the government itself pays for these drugs right through Medicare and Medicaid. So there do we expect to see some changes and then maybe a ripple effect through the system somehow from that?

Uh, yes and no. Um, so one way he could try and pursue his plan is through uh the Medicare, uh, drug price negotiations that started under President Biden. There's a new round of those coming up. It's possible that Trump could say yes, this time we want most, we want the lowest price that you charge elsewhere. He could try to, you know, uh, pursue a most favored nation plan through that. Um, that would only be about 10 new drugs.Or 10 drugs total. Um, but it's something. Um, at the same time, yes, there are, you know, there are statutes that give them some power to come up with new pricing plans under Medicare, but they tend to be fairly narrow. This stuff is very carefully regulated, um, and a lot of the ways they have to go about, uh, buying drugs are spelled out very explicitly in statute. Um, so that could be.become a little bit of a legal hurdle. That said, um, you know, Donald Trump has, if nothing else, shown that he's willing to, you know, push up to the absolute limits of the law, and then, you know, see what the courts say. So, you know, this might be another example where he just, you know, doesn't worry too much about the legal niceties and just goes for broke.

Right, signs CEO now and worries about all those repercussions later. Jordan, thank you so much. I appreciate it.

Thanks for having me.

Pharmaceutical pharmaceutical stocks are moving today as President Trump announces his aim to slash drug prices earlier today, but they're not necessarily going in the direction that you might expect. For more, we're bringing in Courtney Breen, senior analyst of US biopharmaceuticals at Burn.and Courtney, initially some of these um stocks moved down and then we saw them sort of move up to little change because I guess the industry was expecting something different. Can you walk us through that and why this is not a worst case outcome for them?

Absolutely, great to be with you today, it is a a a busy day and there's there's lots of uh announcements and lots of stock movements as you suggested.Absolutely right. There were a few rumors that came out early this morning that that pushed stock prices lower, and there was the Truth Social post from Trump himself last night that caused some consternation. But then when we got to the press conference today and then the signing of the executive order and then actually seeing the contents of that executive order, there was a bit ofA sigh of relief for the industry, and part of that came from the tone that Trump used. I think he even used language that suggested he was willing to go into bat for the pharmaceutical companies and defend them and help them raise their prices in other countries around the world, um, and there was a lot of kind of positive sentiment shared by Trump about.The importance of pharma companies and that this was very much the responsibility and the challenges that America is facing is on the shoulders of other countries rather than the drug companies themselves, so that certainly was a positive reaction and I think in some ways aligned with your your previous guest, I would agree with the fact that.We still don't have all the details yet, but what we do have paints a perhaps less risk, uh, less risky environment for the drug companies over the next couple of months.

Courtney, is it your understanding that President Trump, does he have the authority, Courtney, to do what he is proposing, what he wants to do here without congressional approval and legislation?

Great question. So I think what was interesting in this executive order where there is kind of a, there is a request part of the order, and then there is a kind of threat part of the order. And in the request part is the suggestion that the government, the administration will pull together proposed MF.Prices propose these to companies and then the companies get to choose to take actions to start lowering their US prices to come into line with those MFN prices that perhaps is kind of within the bounds of some of the actions that could be taken if the industry decides to play ball.The second part though, the threat, if the industry doesn't play ball is when legislation is required, kind of akin to what we saw with Biden and kind of the IRA and the uh the MFP, the maximum fair price negotiations that are in place now for uh Medicare drugs, um, this is likely to to be required to be instigated in legislation.Um, and certainly through the press conference today, we saw reference to the fact that the intention is to load this legislation into the big beautiful bill that the Republicans are preparing on a number of topics including tax cuts, um, and ensure that that is a, a, a place for it to potentially pass. I think however there is a lot of of steps.A lot of detail and the devil will really be in the in that detail as to whether this legislation can kind of proceed, doesn't have court issues going forward, and we do actually see any implementation of this I think is still a questionmark.

So Courtney, do you think that the drug companies will call the president's bluff and not lower the prices as he's requesting?

I think this is something that we're going to see playing out over the over the next few weeks to months. They've given themselves the administration a 30 day deadline to begin these conversations with pharma companies, um, bearing in mind kind of the the farmer lobbying body PAMA, and many of the CEOs have been engaged with the administration kind of day in and day out over the past couple of months on this.Along with tariffs. So kind of this will be a continuation of conversations that have probably already been happening in private. Um, certainly what we did see in the executive order were a number of things that the drug companies have been wanting to achieve. They've been wanting to, uh, point the target to the countries outside the US and say their drug prices are too low, uh, and we need your help there. And they've alsobeen pointing to the PBMs as being responsible for a large part of the reason as to why US drug prices are too high. So there certainly were some olive branches given to the industry, um, and definitely a reflection even of the industry lobbying lobbying language in this bill, uh sorry, in this executive order, um, and so when it comes to kind of, is there going to be goodwill and trust.From the industry, there might be a path here, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Well, and then I, I guess what I'm curious about is the international piece of this. Is it realistic that these drug makers could raise their prices elsewhere? I mean, re regulations is what really has stopped them from doing so, correct? Is there any real chance maybe with tariffs as the stick in this case, that you would see changes in that way?

It's a great question. I mean, as we all well know, kind of, the US government doesn't govern uh kind of the non-US countries around the world. Um, they have their own kind of legal systems, their own healthcare systems, their own drug pricing approaches, um, which, which include a variety of, of different mechanisms, and so certainly kind of there isn't any direct oversight or direct influence that,is clear or a clear path or a path that's been utilized before for the US to influence this outcome. However, kind of you made reference to tariffs and I think kind of we are in a different world order at the moment than we've been for a long time and I think this executive order and press release line up quite closely with with many of the things Trump has done over the past few months where kind of.He's cobbling together topics that span across different federal groups, different government departments, and suggesting to perhaps stop or put very severe tariffs on auto imports from Europe in a trade for being able to increase drug prices in Europe. That's something that we've never seen done before. There isn't kind of any clear mechanism to achieve so.Um, but kind of we're in a different negotiation environment between countries than we've ever been before, and, and so we'll have to, to see whether there is any real kind of stick that can be used with tariffs to influence this, but, but certainly it will be going kind of coloring well outside the lines of what kind of normal standard procedure or standard regulations allow for.

Well, we've become used to that, I guess. Courtney, thank you so much, appreciate it.Of course.WowNow time for some of today's trending ticker sponsored by Tasty Trade. We're locking in on shares of Apple, Pan American Silver, and NRG Energy. First up, Apple getting a boost today from that US-China trade truce this coming as well. The Wall Street Journal. It's also reporting that Apple is weighing whether to raise prices for its upcoming iPhone lineup this fall. But the Journal is saying if Apple does raise prices, that it will be careful to.Not attribute the gains to tariffs that it will rather say, oh well, there's going to be this new technology or that and that that's why they would raise prices because as we know for example when there have been other companies that have had some transparency about the effect the tariffs are having that you get the like that that side real quick you do that it was because I was, I was talking to, uh, Gene Munster over Deepwater Asset Management this morning. Munster, of course.You know, well known long time Apple analyst. I was just curious what he made of that report and Munster's point to me was there's, I mean, obviously there's a lot of moving pieces here, um, but let's say Munster said you had that 10% basic universal tariff in place. Let's say we, we, we think that's what's gonna be the case. He does think if that was still the case that Tim Cook would raise prices on the new iPhones by 5% and then he doesn't think 5% would.Dent demand materially, but of course above that who knows. So here's a question I have that we obviously are not gonna know the answer to the tariffs are changing, um, but companies like Apple that are huge behemoths that you know have operations all over the world, they've already said what they're gonna do in reaction to the, to the worst case scenario tariffs. They're gonna move a lot of their production to India. So the question is if now tariffs come back down.Do they reverse some of those plans? Do they just do it more quietly than the announcement of what they were doing to react to the highest tariffs? But then, and then there is the added wrinkle of which iPhones are coming from India. Like, is it the most, it seems like it's the most advanced iPhones that were still going to be coming from China regardless.The most profitable, highest margin, high-end iPhones, The Journal was saying in their portrait the bulk of those would still be coming from China. But I, I guess I'm asking the question not just about Apple, but about all of these companies that have been scrambling to try to make an alternative plan. If tariffs go to 10% everywhere, then do they reverse some of those plans? I don't know.I mean, I think for some of these companies, those supply chains are so global and so complex it's just not as easy as flicking a switch. No, it's definitely not. Alright, shares of Pan American silver, they're sinking today after the Canadian mining company announced it will acquire Mag Silver Corporation and transaction worth about $2 billion. So this one, about $2 billion per reports that this gives Pan American.Access, I guess joy to a major mine in Mexico and the backdrop of course being here at the rally we've seen in Precious metals this year spot silver up I think double digits, um, so gives Pan American access to a major mine in silver and two undeveloped projects in Canada as well. Yeah, this is really what it has to do with right is silver prices have been going higher and according to um the presentation the company gave.This would bring down Pan American's costs by about 20%, so silver prices up, costs down. You would think that that would be a good thing, although we are seeing the shares fall today. 2054 is how this values nag, so it's about a 21% premium. So maybe investors are not thrilled with the price that is being paid here. Now Pan American CEO saying this brings in the portfolio one of the best silver.Minds in the world. And then there's shares of NRG Energy rising on another deal of topping first quarter earnings expectations and also announcing a $12 billion acquisition of natural gas assets from a company called LS Power Equity Advisors. So it's a $12 billion deal including debt, and it gets NRG Energy 18 gas-fired power plants. Now why is this important?Really we have seen the utility industry and the generation industry leaning into natural gas and so this strengthens NRG's position in that business. Energy, by the way, already owns some gas-fired plants. It also owns alternative energy sources, solar, etc. So this would increase its exposure to gas. And the CEO telling Bloomberg it's kind of like finding the holy grail. Yes, that's how he put it, this portfolio.Seems to be the perfect fit for us with the purchase. It sounds like NRG is also saying adjust the EPS will now expand at 14% on our compend on growth rate over 5 years, and that is up from their previous guidance helps explain the pop you're seeing today for sure. Coming up, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler saying steeper tariffs will drive prices higher. We're gonna discuss what's next for the Fed on the other side. Stick around. Much more market domination still to come.Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said Monday that steeper tariffs will drive prices higher, acting to push down incomes and lower economic growth. Finance's Jennifer Schonberger joining us now with more on the latest Fed commentary, Jen.

Good afternoon, Josh. As the Trump administration announced a 90 day truce with China, slashing tariffs to work towards what Treasury Secretary Scott Besson calls a more fulsome agreement. Some are saying it takes what the Fed sees as risks to higher inflation and lower growth off the table. Will Stith, senior bond portfolio manager for Wilmington Trust, says the China trade deal takes some ofStagflation risk off the table that quote the wheels are in motion. There's a greater understanding about what both sides are trying to achieve. It's definitely a positive advancement. All of a sudden, higher unemployment is less probable. But even with that deal announcement, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said Monday that steeper tariffs could drive prices higher, acting to push down incomes and lower.Economic growth. Coogler saying changes in trade policy appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels. Last week, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to hold interest rates steady in the range of 4.25 to 4.5% for the third straight month. Traders on Monday pushing the odds of a rate cut in June down to just.8% and scaling back their bets on the number of rate cuts for the year to 2. They now don't expect the first rate cut to happen until September. Stocks roaring today as investors' worst fears over a trade war between the US and China eased on the back of a trade deal announcement with the UK. At the same time, Ukraine's President Zelinsky said.To meet with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Turkey this week on the back of a minerals deal, bringing the end of the Ukraine war possibly closer. Trump saying today that he may speak with Chinese President Xi at the end of the week, while Treasury Secretary Besson anticipates that both the US and China could come back to the negotiating table in just a couple of weeks. Back to you,

Jennifer, thank you. I appreciate it.Well, for more on the current state of the economy and what's next for the Federal Reserve, let's welcome in Thomas Simons, Jeffrey's chief US economist. Tom, it's always great to see you. Obviously, you know, big news today from the market's perspective. I'm curious how you're interpreting it from an economic perspective. It seems like.The balance of risks in terms of the economists we've been speaking to has seemed to be more weighted to worrying about the growth side of the equation than a sort of more permanent inflation side of the equation. Has that been your concern and is now that gone, alleviated? Where are you?

Yeah, I think that looking at it in terms of the balance of risks is really all that we can, we can do at this point. Uh, trying to put precise, you know, pinpoint forecasts on different data points has been virtually impossible for the last two months, and the news over the weekend, while encouraging, hasn't made that process any easier. So I think we're always kind of on the more sanguine end of the growth forecast range. Uh, you know, we had thought that we would see slowing in growth but no outright recession.Um, I do think that this takes the potential downside risks, uh, you know, it tones them down quite a bit, especially as it relates to the labor market. I, I could see businesses perhaps, uh, being a little bit more patient on, uh, you know, perhaps delaying layoffs or reducing scale or just, you know, kind of taking a breath before they make a big decision. Um, and so long as the labor market holds up well, uh, I think that we can be confident the consumer can continue to, uh, you know, push, uh, continue to support solid pace of growth.

So it's interesting, Thomas, because we've certainly seen the soft data take a hit, right? And so the, the question has been, OK, when is that going to translate that, that into the hard data? When would you expect that, Thomas? Do you expect that?

I don't think it's reasonable to be, uh, you know, kind of directly translating some of the declines we've seen in some of the, you know, for instance, consumer confidence data into significant declines in uh in spending. There is a wonderful report that the Fed Board of Governors put out a couple of weeks ago now, that really dug deep into sort of do consumers do what they say or or not, and really it broke down to if you were a consumer that felt like your income did not keep up with inflation.Then you felt quite terrible about it, uh, but it tied together actual spending data from those same consumers and showed that they continued to spend, uh, so, so long as people think that their incomes are not going to be, uh, you know, outpaced by inflation and, you know, potentially now we have a lower tariff scenario playing into that expectation. I think that it'll probably translate into a little bit better consumer confidence andThey keep on spending, so I don't think that that's necessarily going to show up in the in the hard data unless we do end up with that sort of empty shelves scenario. Again, I don't think that that's particularly likely for the baseline, but if people run out of things to buy, then surely we'll have a contraction in spending all of what we had like in 2020, for instance.

And Tom, what about, um, what this means for the Fed and where you expect them to go and how much that calculus maybe changes?

Yeah, it seems like we kind of flipped the coin all the way to the other side here where there was this concern that uh higher inflation or higher price levels from tariffs was going to handcuff the Fed and keep them from, from cutting, but now all of a sudden we're, we're looking at, uh, you know, complete reversal where, uh, we have potentially stronger growth that's going to drive higher inflation and thus keep the Fed from cutting.Uh, I think if we do end up in that scenario, that's a good problem to have. That's one where the Fed can probably maintain rates at this level for quite some time, perhaps even consider raising rates again, but that would be, you know, much further down the road, uh, once we're through a lot of this other uncertainty on fiscal policy and deregulation and once we are, you know, concretely in a higher growth environment, then that would be a conversation for a different day. But at this point, I think that their patient approach has been totally, it's totally paid off.You know, and and I think that they can continue to do that for a little while longer here before potentially making a mistake by going too early.

What did youmake, Thomas? There was this school of thought that given all the uncertainty with the trade and the terror fight, that a lot of CEOs, Thomas, they were going to stand pat and they were going to sit on their hands and just forget about investing and spending and headcount would come into question and that that would tip us into a recession. What do you make of that argument?

Uh, I've never really been a big fan of that argument for a number of reasons. Uh, you know, one, I think if you look at business investment and how it's related to overall economic growth for the last several years, uh, outside of investments related to AI and the energy infrastructure build out around that, um, and investments that were basically directly funded by government, uh, stimulus from the, the bills that were passed during the Biden administration, we haven't seen tons of, you know, investment in property, plant and equipment.Um, and on the labor side, you know, I think that businesses have really been focused on attrition to manage headcount, you know, basically not replacing workers who have retired or quit, um, and that strategy seems to be kind of status quo. I think it remains appropriate, so, uh, there's no big delta in terms of like where we were getting growth and where it might lead. Uh, instead, I think it's, uh, just a kind of steady state thing where we don't get a real, uh, significant drag.

Um, we spoke to, um, an analyst for at the, um, Council on Foreign Relations earlier and she said it is easy to undo the tariffs but not to undo the damage that they have done in various ways. And so I'm curious how you're thinking about even if the tariffs do go down more, even if they go down more, are there sort of, um, you know, ricochets if you will, that are still gonna, we'll see through the economy.

It might be, I, I'm, I'm again kind of skeptical about this argument as well, uh, you know, because I think at the end of the day, um, you know, rightly or wrongly, you know, the, the Trump administration played their hand viewing the US, uh, consumer market as being one that lots of other people want to access for various different reasons.And I think at the end of the day, the dynamics that support that argument haven't really changed. I think there are some things around the edges that clearly have frayed, you know, I mean, like, obviously, uh, Canadians booing the national anthem at hockey games and things like that is, uh, is troubling and and disappointing, uh, but I don't think that we're necessarily at a point yet where we would see, you know, significant long-term, um, economic damage, uh, and in fact I think that perhaps, you know, it released to the discussion earlier on,Apple with their decision to go with uh production in India versus China, I think it is just a good reminder to everyone who has these very complex global supply chains that for a number of reasons, whether it's policy related or it could be just exogenous, some sort of natural disaster or something, you know, there are good reasons to look into shortening those up, making them, you know, a little bit more robust with some.You know, parallel systems in place and, uh, you know, I think in the, in the long run that leads to a a better system of trade globally that's a little bit more insulated.

Tom, good to see you. Thanks somuch.

Likewise, thank you.

Coming up, we're counting down to the closing bell on Wall Street as stocks remain elevated. Stick around, more market domination still to come.Well, US stocks surging as fears over an escalating trade war between the US and China ease. For more on Wall Street's tariff mindset, let's get to Yahoo Finance's Josh Shaffer. Josh, what is the mindset? The mindset seems to be that things are getting a little bit better than a lot of people thought, right? I think that's why you're seeing such a large rally in the stock market is, I don't think headed into the weekend there were a lot of strategists that we were talking to last week that were confident that 2 days.of negotiations with China and we're going to lead to Treasury Treasury Secretary Scott Besin coming out on Monday and saying actually we've moved the China tariff rate down significantly from where it was and we have a 90 day pause, right? I just don't think that was the base case heading into the weekend, so you've got sort of a better than expected style rally in the broad market that you would get on maybe an earnings report, right? And it seems like just the large fears that people have been talking about for the last month was a, when was this going.Happen and be sort of to what extent would a roll back of China tariffs at least temporarily look like and it seems like for now it's just simply better than people had hoped and maybe takes away some of the risk that was out there in the market. I keep thinking about April 2nd and that, you know, that, that graphic that had all of the reciprocal tariffs on the various nations that seemed entirely pulled out of thin air and market participants looked at that and they.What in the world is that and where did it come from and what are we gonna do? Just this year, not panic, but like what is going on? And so anything short of that and everything since then has pretty much been short of that was gonna be not as bad as that if that was the worst it could be.And like everything else, it's, it's gravy. Well, it helps explain something like a one month chart of any of the three indexes though, right? When you look at it, obviously stocks absolutely tank for 2 days and then the rip higher has been pretty incredible, honestly, to some extent. I mean, I'm looking at my chart from this morning. This was when we opened, but the Nasdaq is up about 6% since the morning of April 2nd.So that includes the big drawdown and then up so it's up 6% since the morning of April 2nd. I mean it's just kind of crazy to think about and to your point, Julie, one thing I've been wondering about is, OK, so we have the big discussions with China now going well, and I wonder at what point maybe we're pricing in some optimism about how the US stance on China then translates to the US's stance on tariffs in general and tariffs with a lot of these other countries, right? Because I think from a lot of perspectives, the contentiousness with China.Sense and sort of the back and forth there makes a lot of sense. A lot of other countries on that big board you talked about, I think we were looking at and saying, really like is that where our issue is? And so then maybe does that make you feel better about just the overall kind of deal with tariffs because when you think about the rally over the last two weeks, the market was already sort of kind of front running this news, right? So what news are we front running more today and maybe it's just general tariff de-escalation that people have sort of been rooting for.I don't know unless unless 10% is the floor and like that's it. It certainly could be Joshua, thank you. We find the floor, Josh. I'm gonna go find the floor while we're wrapping up today's market domination. Don't go anywhere. We've got you covered with all the action from the closing bells too for market domination over time.