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Well, that is the closing bell on Wall Street, and now is market domination overtime sponsored by Tasty Trade. We're joined by Jerry Blickery at the New York Stock Exchange to get you up to speed one, right up to, uh, on today's trade. Let's see where the major averages did end up here. Where they ended up was in the red. The Dow down about 700 points. The S&P 500 down 2.2%. The Nasdaq down about 3%. What were they ducking into? Remember last week they were selling stocks, US bonds, dollar, all US assets, not today. You look at Treasury, uh, they catch a bid. They're rallying. I'm looking at the 10 year benchmark here, 428. Now over to Jared for a closer look at today's sector action. Jared.

Thank you Josh. 24 hours ago we were celebrating the lack of volatility in the boring markets. Not today. We are seeing a resumption of the down trend with the Dow down almost 700 points. The Nasdaq leading the way down 3%. Even the Russell 2000 off about 2.5%. And just looking at.Volatility. I've been tracking the VIX very closely. It hasn't jumped up a huge amount today, but it just seems very comfortable, and this is a year to date look hanging above the 30 level, and that's something you see when institutions are still facing a lot of uncertainty. So that's a trend that we see continuing here, if not resuming.I move index, the VIX of the bond market that's still elevated as well. This is another year to day chart, but not too much movement from the day prior. And let's check out the 10 year Tino yield. Josh, you were just looking at that. It is down 4 basis points, not a huge move, but it was only last week that we saw that huge jump up and volatility that we haven't seen move up that we haven't seen since 2001. Let's check out the sector action where we see only.Energy Finishing in the green today. We were just talking with Dan Dicker about the oil market, crude oil up today, so energy green, but it's antithesis in these markets tech down 3.5% and a lot of times the old times we saw energy moving the opposite way of tech. That trend has resumed, but look at what else is down each of the mega cap sectors. So not surprisingly, if we take a look at the Nasdaq 100, a sea of red here, a couple of green spots.Looks like strategy bang in the green here, Dollar Tree, but Apple down 4%, Microsoft Nvidia down, Nvidia down almost 7%. And of course the decline started last night on some of that news regarding Nvidia and you see this manifested in the semiconductor screen that we're looking at right now. Taiwan semi down 3.5%, AMD down over 7%. ASML also down more than 7%. So facing.Pretty steep losses there. Also seeing this bleed over into software. We're not seeing a whole lot of green here. Microsoft down 3.5%. Oracle down 3. CrowdStrike down 3%, and then looking at finally for tech, unprofitable tech. We see a couple of green spots here with Shopify, Roblox, DraftKing, Unity, but for the most part seeing a more red than green. I'm going to go to, I want to leave us off on a green screen, so for that I'm going to.Sent us off on energy where we see Exxon up 1%, Shell up 2%, and a little bit of hope here in an otherwise pretty red tape. Back to you guys.

Thank

you,

Jared.Let's bring in now Michael Antonelli. He is managing director and market strategist at Bayer. The firm has $490 billion in client assets under management. Michael, it, it is great to see you here. You know, before Jay Powell spoke, Michael, I, I probably, I might have led with what we were seeing in, in the chips today. I mean, semis came under a ton of pressure, but Jay Powell did speak, and it didn't seem, Michael, like the stock market liked what they heard. He was talking about how, well, Trump tariffs, they could.They could generate higher inflation, slower growth, and it seemed like Michael Mar heard that and said, well, OK, if you were, you were thinking a rate cut was coming anytime soon, maybe not so much. uh, but what, you listened to Jalwell, what did you make of what you heard, Michael, and the, and the response in the markets?

Yeah, thanks for having me on. It's such a, such a crazy moment. Uh, I, I think there's two things that the market is always asking itself, and that is number one, what is the Trump put and what is the Fed put? It's always asking those two things, like, what, how low will it go for, for the president to, to walk back and how low go for the, for the Fed to essentially, I don't know, do something, quote unquote something. Uh, in both instances, I think the put is way lower. I, I, we just, the presidential.It seems to be way, way, way lower. But the, but the Fed put, I think today is being said that it is also way lower. And to be quite honest, I've been saying this to clients, what would a 50 basis point rate cut do right now for what we're facing? It it's, it's not like financial conditions are the issue here. We're, we're, we're trying to reshape global trade, something we haven't done in 100 years. So I'm not really sure what the Fed can do, but I think the market has been conditioned for the longest time to say to itself,What what will you do to help us, what will you do to soothe us at this very moment, and I don't think it's liking the answer for either.

And Michael, how do you balance this for your clients right? On one hand you have arguably a strong economy or we had a strong economy going into all of this. Jobs look good, wages look good. Consumer sentiment was decent. Earnings are actually coming out of the gate pretty strong and you know, here you have all of this uncertainty, the, the word of the year, whether or not we're going to have a Trump, whether or not we're going to have a Fed put, you know, what do you tell your clients, uh, these are these investable moments or are these sideline moments in your opinion?

It's tough because everything feels new. Every, every sell off feels new, every the reason for a sell off or what we're facing always feels new. We like to remind them that in, in our, uh, wealth management experience, they, uh, they are a part of a plan and the plan is meant to handle kind of all the difficult moments that we deal with. So we like to remind them that the plan is the kind of lifeboat in times like now, and that's what we do for them. Uh, but I, as a strategist and a market kind of prognosticator do like to say, look, there's reasons for upside and there's reasons.For downside. The upside is probably all about walking back the tariffs and maybe some talk about taxes and some tax extensions for TCJA. So there is potential upside, uh, and the fact that American companies are pretty resilient, they're really pretty quite resilient entities, but there's also a downside, right, if this gets worse, if, um, if economic data starts to decline. Uh, so ultimately that there's, there's one way to approach that is to remind them that planning is, will always be the key to uncertainty, but, but also that.It's not always, it's all, not all that. We, we, we can't think about this as being all bad. There, there is hopefully some upside there.

And, and Michael, where does that, where does that upside get you by the end of the year if you had to be a betting man? Where, where do we end up this year in terms of that?

Right. The, the stats are really not in our favor. I'm sorry, but they're just not. Anytime the stock market has fallen 15% in the calendar year, anytime that has happened since 1950, it's been negative for the year, uh, all but 2 times, and those other two times were uh 2009 and 2020.So those were, those were crisis years. Uh, but in general, when the stock market falls as much, it generally tends to end the year negative. So, absent some sort of gigantic deal or walk back on this, you would think that the stock market since it's April, uh, probably doesn't have the, the, the juice to, to end up to the upside. The downside, my friends, though, we do need to talk about that really quickly. In myYou know it's not more trade tariff stuff. I just don't think it is that we, we've dealt with that for a while. I think the downside to the stock market, real downside is economic data collapsing, is, is jobs losses is, is inflation perking up. Uh, and for that, I watched the 10 year. That's what I'm watching right now. And right now, it's kind of in the middle of its 3-year range. So, um, but, but we do, the downside is economic data, not more tariff stuff.

Michael, always great to see you, especially on a day like this, my friend. Thanks for joining us.

Thank you guys.

The market has seen outside swings to both the upside and downside due to tariff whiplash. The volatility index soaring last week, the highest since early 2020. That's according to Bloomberg, as investors continue to grapple with uncertainty. Where does this leave the options market? Prosper Trading Academy CEO Scott Bauer joins us.Discussed in the options pit sponsored by Tasty Trade. Scott, it's good to see you. So, uh may start here, Scott. Listen, um, lots of volatility in this market. What kind of opportunities do you think, Scott, that, that presents to investors, especially maybe Scott investors who are, who are listening right now and, and they're new to options?

Sure. So if you're following the VIX, and I'm standing here in the VIX pit at placebo, if you're following the VIX, something to remember is, if you see a VIX more normalized long term, around 16, that's equivalent to about a 1% move in daily move in the S&Ps, 32, which is pretty much where we're at right now, that's a 2% daily move, 48%.3%, so on and so forth. When we see this elevated level, 30 or above, it typically does not stay here very long. In fact, if you look at historically going back to when the VIC started back in, in the mid to early 90s here, uh above 30 is, you know, maybe it stays for a few days, maybe we see a week and then we normalize.Here, in fact, over the history of the VIX, anytime it's really sore and it's gotten above 50%, which is really kind of a capitulation panic level for most investors here, that year, the returns and moving forward have all been positive. So is this time different? You guys were just talking, maybe this time is different, you know.When we go through these cycles, we always say that whether it was COVID, whether it was, you know, the Y2K issues, whether it was a great financial crisis, is this time different? Maybe it's, it, you know, I'm not an investment advisor, I'm a trader, so it's easy for me to just say, hang on, hold on in there. The opportunity really is though, quite frankly to sell some volatility.

Kind of a broader question, Scott, so just while I have you, I mean, you have been, you listen, Scott, you've been thinking about studying and trading these markets for a long time, especially on a day like this. I think a lot of people, some people at least that, you know, investors can get nervous when they see a deal like this. Just broader, Scott, I'm just what you make of these markets.

Well, it, it's difficult. It's really difficult to be honest because we really haven't been through a time before regardless of the periods of time where we've seen the VIC spike where we know the markets can change in a heartbeat literally in a second on a tweet, on a, you know, a news clipping. We have not been through that before so I think this time going through here that uncertainty.is heightening that VIX level, is heightening, you know, some of, some of the nervousness that people are feeling out there and the fact that we keep seeing changes almost on a daily basis coming out of the administration is also a very unsettling feeling. This too shall pass, but is it going to be a matter of days, weeks, months?Is it going to continue through the end of the year? I can't tell you that. I know that the opportunities to trade though are excellent. The markets in the VIX, the markets in the S&P, they're deep, they're robust, they're liquid. So as a trader, it's great if you're a longer term investor, you probably just gotta look historically and say, all right, I'm along for the ride.

And Scott, we were talking earlier about semiconductors and the different opportunities there. I know you have some ideas around TSM. Can you give us some trade color on that and what you see in the options market?

Absolutely. You know, it's really tough just because of the, the constant news cycle. If it weren't for what's going on right now, I have no qualms that TSM would be a $200 plus stock, but we do have, you know, the current news cycle to contend with.Earnings tomorrow morning. I want to be long this stock, even in the face of everything that's going on. So what I am doing is I am selling tomorrow's, excuse me, next week's expiring 150 $140 put spread, $10 wide foot spread. Could have done that for about 3 $3.5 today, which was a lot of premium. I normally would not sell a put spread.Why, but looking at the stock, I want to be long this stock 146, 147 area if it were to come down there. So I don't mind selling this puts spread, getting the expensive premium, and then seeing what happens. Again, if I had a longer time horizon on this, if it was more of an investment than a trade, I would probably look at it a little bit differently.

Scott, great to see you and to have you on the show today. Thanks for joining us. Thanks so much.Well, gold not only hitting record highs this year, Precious Metal also taking the crown from tech stocks as the most crowded trade on Wall Street. Yahoo Finance's Inez Ferre joins us now with more. Inez.

Yeah, Josh, and this is from a BFA survey that basically said that for the first time in two years, the mag 7 is not the most crowded on Wall Street, the most crowded trade, but it is gold, which today hit a new all-time high above 3350. And just to show you the performance of gold year to date.Compared with the mag 7, take a look, gold up 26% year to date for the futures. And if we look at the mag 7 stocks year to date chart, I'm going to show you the Nvidia down 22%, Apple down 22%. So all of the mag 7 components down at least double digit percentages. Also in this BFA survey you had.These fund managers, 73% that said that US exceptionalism has peaked already and despite the rally that we've seen in gold, 26% year to date, you have 42% of them that say that gold will be the best performing asset of 2025. That is up from more than 20% just the month previously.

Thank you, Nez. Thank you. Stick around. Much more market domination over time, that's still to come.Home builder confidence remains in negative territory in April, growing economic uncertainty from tariff concerns weighing down on builders sentiment, while rising material prices also due to tariffs have home builders see costs rising per home by thousands of dollars. National Association of Home Builders CEO Jim Tobin joins us now to discuss. Jim, great to see you as always.Um, you know, Jim, so Fed had Jay Powell today was speaking. He was talking about the Trump tariffs, Jim. He's talking about how, listen, that could very well mean higher inflation. It could mean slower growth. I'm curious, Jim, when you think about these tariffs, how you're thinking about them for the home builders, Jim, what are the implications, the ripple effects you're looking for?

Oh, good afternoon. Thanks for having me. Uh, I, I think the ripple effects, uh, are, are yet to be seen, but we're anticipating higher prices. Uh, we saw our HMI, which is the NHB Wells Fargo Home housing Market index, go up only 1 point this month to a reading of 40 that's still well below the break even point of 40. Uh, and when we, we sur.The, the, the builders on this, uh, they're already seeing price increases up to 6% from their suppliers, which translates into over $10,000 almost $11,000 in increased costs when it comes to building a new home. So we, we also do the tariffs as inflationary, uh, and I don't think if we know the full impact yet.

And Jim, what do you think is the way out of this for builders, right? There, there was a sentiment survey out there. 29% of builders said that they're gonna have to cut home prices because of the, you know, tariffs and and spending and things like this. But how do builders get out of this? What, what is their future for the next 9 months with tariffs coming in?

Well, I, I think it's gonna have to be a lower mortgage rate environment, you know, I think the reading, you know, our, our, our HMI went up 1 point this month andWe think that's largely due to that dip in mortgage rates we had a couple of weeks ago. So if we can see a quick clear of the bond market trying to settle down, uh, and hopefully bring uh mortgage rates back down into, you know, closer to 6.5%, uh, I think some people will begin to come off the, the sidelines. You know, that said, it really is market to market. I was just in Florida this week visiting ourBuilders down in the panhandle and they're doing very well. They are money is flowing. People are coming down there to buy homes and home construction is booming, but yeah, when I talked to our builders uh in, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin border state, a lot of trade comes across those borders from Canada. Uh, they've seen the market kind of swing both ways. People pulling out of the market, not wanting to buy a home orStart a home, uh, but then you coming back in over the last couple of weeks and, well, maybe now is the time. So it's, it's uncertainty is the word of the month and probably the word of the next couple of months when it comes to home building home building in this country.

Jim, I, I assume you're, you're talking to the Trump administration, so I'm just wondering when you talk to them, what are you telling them, Jim, and, and what's their response?

They are talking to the Trump administration. They're, they're very attuned to what's going on in the housing market. They, they, you know, they, they have made a pledge on the, on the president's inaugural day uh to, to lower housing costs and build more housing. So for us it's all about just explaining the impacts that these tariffs are going to have. Our three largest trading partners in building materials are China, Canada, and Mexico. Uh, so these tariffs on, onMexico are gonna are gonna bite pretty hard uh in the short term, but again, we're hoping for better trade deals, which means we'll ease those tariffs, we get to fair trade, and we can get back to some balance in the markets right now. And, and again, I, I think there's a long way to run on what the Trump economy truly looks like, uh, between the deregulatory actions this president is taking, we've already seen several of those aimed at the housing industry to lower theCost of the regulatory burden on on home construction and apartment construction, you know, I, I absolutely have faith that the president will cut new trade deals. Of course you have this big tax bill that the Congress is just starting to work on, and there's a lot of incentives in there for homeownership, affordable rental, and of course the business side of the equation as well. So I still think we're a few months, if not longer than that, away from truly knowing what this economy looks like.

And Jim, given what you just said about the potential for for tariffs kind of equalizing out and balancing out, what do you think the opportunity is for investors to look at some of the home builder stocks like the Home Depots and the lows of the world, for example?

They're gonna be there in the long run. I mean, everybody should be long on housing in this country. The demographics underpin it. Uh, we know that the, the, the, the, the millennials are coming to their prime home buying ages, so there's a lot of demand. I think it's just once the economy settles down, people feel a little bit more certainty, uh, and that interest rates begin to trend downward again, mortgage rates begin to trend downwards again. I, I, I think that there's a lot of upside to this, to the housing market, uh, and I think that it's, it's time to take a look at the.The home builders, of course, the, the building material companies out there and, and, and, and be ready cause when we pop, it's gonna go quickly.

Jim, I know you touched on this. I just want to double click on it quickly here. The 30 year fix, Jim, I'm just looking at Mortgage News Daily says we're at 6.86%, Jim. You, you got very smart economists there on staff. I'm curious, what do they tell you? What's their forecast about where they think that heads from here?

Well, again, I, I think we, we haven't fully seen the, the, the impacts yet, but I, I think 7, 7% mortgage rates remain kind of the top of the cycle in the short term here. Uh, again, it's all based off that 10 year treasury, uh, and as long as that stays somewhere, you know, kind of trickling around 4.5 or south of that, I think we'll be OK. We won't get into that, that crooked number of 7. I, I like when we get closer to, uh, to 5, but I do think we're gonna, we're gonna settle in here 6.5, maybe a little bit higher for the next 7.Months. And again, if you have to move, you know, there is no, there's no right or wrong time to move if if your economic or personal situation dictates it. But I do think that that higher handle on mortgage rates is going to keep people off the sidelines, at least into the bulk of the spring of building and buying season, and that of course is the challenge if we want to jumpstart the housing market. You know,

Jim, as a homeowner myself locked in at 6.5. I agree with you. 5 does sound a lot better, Jim. Thank you as always for joining us. Appreciate it.

Thank you.

Time now for to watch Thursday, April 17th, sponsored by Tasty Trade and start off on the earnings front here. Some big names reporting tomorrow, including Taiwan Semiconductor, American Express, and Netflix. Now Netflix announcing first quarter results that's coming after the markets closed. Netflix says it will no longer be disclosing its quarterly subscriber numbers starting this quarter.expecting that momentum to endure and drive revenue growth in Q1. and moving over to housing, we're going to be getting some fresh housing data with housing starts and building permits in the morning. Economists expecting both starts and permits to decrease in March to 1.42 million and 1.45 million respectively on a month to month basis. And taking a look at the Fed.Got some more Fed commentary coming in tomorrow. That's going to be from Fed Governor Michael Barr. He's coming after comments earlier today from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is speaking today at the Economic Club of Chicago, and the markets experienced, you know, a sharp selloff as a result. Powell saying that the effects of tariffs are moving the Fed away from its dual mandate goal of price stability and maximum employment.That's gonna do it for today's market domination overtime. A big thank you to Sylvia Jablonski for hanging with me today, Sylvia. It is, it is always great to see you, but I have to tell you today it was especially helpful. Appreciate it. Thank you so much for having a lot of ground too, by the way, everything. All right, don't go anywhere on the other side of the break. It's ask for a trend. I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market boom stories so you can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tuned.