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Early August sell-offs significantly impacted tech stock trades, prompting investors to seek buying opportunities in the dip or even find encouragement to rotate out of Big Tech. Robinhood Financial head of investment strategy Stephanie Guild joins Catalysts to share her market outlook (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC).
Guild notes that the sell-off triggered a "buy the dip" response from investors, with semiconductor stocks attracting the most purchases and gains. She notes that volumes increased across various sectors and industries, stating there was "net-buying rather than net-selling overall."
Explaining the strong interest in semiconductor stocks during the downturn, Guild states, "I think our customer base thinks long-term." She adds, "I think our customers really do think about what the future holds, not just for the next couple of years, but ten, 20 years ahead, and what will be the most important companies then."
Guild also notes how retail traders on the Robinhood platform are reacting to the site's inclusion of crypto and the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
Markets still on track for their eighth straight day of gains following a spike in volatility amid that temporary market route. Now, for retail investors, the recent sell-off was a buying opportunity. That's according to data from Robin Hood. Here to discuss how retail investors are positioning around market moves. We've got Stephanie Guild. She is the financial head of investment strategy at Robin Hood. Stephanie, great to have you in studio. Thanks for coming in. So, let's start on what you saw in terms of retail investor activity on the platform around that sell off. What was the biggest takeaway for you?
Couple things that we see all the time. It was buying the dip, um, especially in the names that had done the worst. And that was around like semiconductors particularly. Actually, over the last month, that has been the biggest buying. And if you look at something like Nvidia, it was down two times the amount of the Nasdaq was over that same period. So, it makes sense that they were buying more of that. Um, we also saw a ton of volume just in general and all and sort of net buying rather than net selling overall.
What does that signal to you? Does that mean that maybe investors still find reason to be bullish or buying these dips? They like maybe what the trajectory looks like in the long term and they're able to look past some of that uncertainty over the next several months?
Yeah. I I I think that absolutely. And we see it all the time actually. Just when you look below the surface, even though up until July, we had a bull market, um, you had consistently customers on the margin buying more of the things that had come down and selling, trimming, I should say, some of the things that had fallen off. So, Apple had been a place where there was some trimming more recently, but had been a place where there had been more buying earlier in the year when it hadn't been doing as well.
Does that indicate to you that it's more specific to chips than the broader tech rally for retail?
I think in this case, I think so, like, I I think there, you know, you had such a pullback in the chips. And I think our customer base thinks long term, you know, EVs, electric vehicles, tends to hover around 20% of the index. Um, and semiconductors has been a growing share of that as well. And so I think our customers really do think like what is the future? Not just the next couple of years, but 10, 20 years and and what will be the most important companies then.
Stephanie, what are you seeing just in terms of the appetite for crypto and Bitcoin, because we have seen a bit of a bounce back although crypto still underperforming the bounce back that we have seen in the broader major averages. Are they, are they finding reason to buy? And I guess, what does that then further signal to you as we try to kind of read through the lines?
I think, so, crypto is certainly seen a a lot of volume in the pullback as or that we had in the pullback as well. Um, I think also, generally speaking, there is at least a subset of investors that still have give pause to the government and quantitative easing and the deficit that we have. And I actually think that does drive, amongst other things, um, drives continued interest in crypto.
It it makes me wonder too, just about, and going back to what you were saying about tech in particular, the earnings that we saw from company like SMCI, and I know you talked about this in your note, what did that indicate to you about, you know, guiding higher on sales, but not on earnings. What did that indicate to you about upcoming earnings that could be a catalyst for chips, particularly? I'm talking about Nvidia here, right? Yeah.
I mean, in general, like margins have been in focus. Like, are investors getting a return on the CAPEX, um, the capital spending? And SMCI, they had negative cash flow of 635 million. Um, and that just tells me like, there they can't keep up with the demand and they have to continue to spend a lot more. And that's going to hurt their earnings. Now they, they have guided higher for the longer term, but I do get worried about all these companies that are benefiting from secular secular trends, right? So, Nvidia is part of that and they haven't had as much of an issue keeping up with demand, but there was some flutters not so long ago about some design flaws. So, I'm really anxious to see what they say, but I would say the same thing about like GLP1 drugs, right? Like, if you look at like a Lily, they have incredible demand as well, and Novo Nordisk has, but Lily has actually, more recently seemingly, kind of kept up with that demand a bit better.
How closely are you watching the election just in terms of how that's shaping your investment strategy and in post November? Are, are there moves that maybe some investors at home should be thinking or keeping in mind right now as we do lead up to November?
I mean, generally speaking, volatility often, almost every time has gone up. I think there's only one election season that it didn't spike. Um, so I think that that is just something to keep in mind, like, there's probably going to be ups and downs. You know, you had a period where it seemed like Trump was the almost a bygone conclusion that he was going to be the winner. And so you had small caps rallying and you had companies that have a lot of business in China not doing well. And now that has started to unwind. Um, I do think in the short term, it's a lot of noise because I do think they'll end up being a split Congress and so it will be a lot harder for any president to get anything done. Um, the one thing I do, you know, that is easier for a president to get done is anything around tariffs, um, because they don't have to ask for permission for that. And that is something that like obviously we know if Trump wins and that is going to be a big impact. And we've looked back at, you know, over the last time he was president and some of the companies that were negatively impacted by that. So, you have to watch, you have to watch, but I don't, I think you keep investing in the things that you want to invest in longer term.
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This post was written by Angel Smith