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The public's increased market buying means it's time to sell

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Futures (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F) are in the green following the latest CPI report, which came in lighter than expected, showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase in February.

Dennis Gartman, former editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter and chairman of the University of Akron's Endowment Committee, joins Morning Brief hosts Madison Mills and Brad Smith to discuss his bearish outlook on the market, driven by heavy public involvement in equities and uncertainty around tariff policies.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.

00:00 Speaker A

Futures in the green following the latest read on inflation. The February CPI reports coming in lighter than expected, still rising two tenths of a percent month over month, and 2.8% year over year. Joining us now, we've got Dennis Gartman, who is the former editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter and chairman of the University of Akron's Endowment Committee. Just want to get your initial take on the report, Dennis.

00:29 Dennis Gartman

A little bit of a surprise, and the market was clearly surprised when the number came out. The, uh, I watched the Dow Futures go from being up 200 to being up 500, but they've given back almost all the gains since then. And today's a very important day to watch the market. I don't think it'll end up lower, but the response has been less than stellar in the in the past 15 or 20 minutes. It's early yet, things could change. But the fact that we were up 500 on the Dow, and now what, 185 or 190, that to me is indicative of a market that doesn't want to go much higher. I've been bearish since November. I trade only for my own account, and I'm marginally net short. I covered half of my shorts yesterday, but I look to, on any rally that we get, I look to be more short again.

01:42 Speaker A

What's driving your thesis behind the bearishness, Dennis? Why are you so convicted in that view?

01:51 Dennis Gartman

The public is involved too heavily as far as I'm concerned. And the public's holdings of equity investments compared to their average net worth is at historical high levels. And this is an anecdote, but a week and a half ago, two weeks ago, my wife and I were out to dinner, and the bartender at the restaurant we were eating at asked me what I thought about stocks. He wanted to be a buyer. When the shoeclerks are in, as Joseph Kennedy once said, it's time to be out. So I think the fact that the public is participating on the long side aggressively, and has been, is disconcerting to me.

02:58 Speaker A

What does that tell you about how much more valuation unwind we might be set to see?

03:06 Dennis Gartman

I think we go 10 to 15 or 20% below the highs that were made in November, November and December. So we have some ways to go on the downside. And my target on the, well, first of all, we're terribly oversold at this point. And one of my favorite indicators is the CNN Fear and Greed Index. When it gets to 15 and turns higher, that's evidence of the fact that the market is terribly oversold. I think we'll get a bounce, and I think we can take the S&P from 5,600 to 58, 5900, maybe even 6,000 again, as we just get a corrective bounce. We're terribly oversold. We'll get a bounce, and the bounce is to be sold into. The weakness is not to be bought.

04:30 Speaker A

And the weakness is not to be bought because of the retail investor. You think that the dumb money is coming in and buying those dips, and it makes it therefore a dip that is somehow less than?

04:52 Dennis Gartman

Mr. Buffett is selling stocks. And when Mr. Buffett's selling stocks and the public's buying stocks, I think the safest bet is to be betting with Mr. Buffett. He hasn't found anything that he wants to be a buyer of. He's been a seller of Apple, he's been a seller of Bank of America, he's been a seller on balance. He's been raising cash. He's still obviously very long, but he's reducing the size of his long position. And when he's doing that, and the public is buying, one should be betting with Mr. Buffett and against the public. The I fear the fact that we have an administration now that believes heavily in tariffs. And tariffification of an economy, I think, is a very deleterious circumstance. And the confusion that's coming out of Washington, we have tariffs on one day, off the next day, on in the afternoon, off in the morning. That's a disconcerting and confusing environment. And if you're a small businessman, it makes it difficult to make any adjustments in what you're going to do for the next year or two.