In This Article:
President Trump's tariff policies have put both the US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) and equity markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) in an awkward spot.
Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor and Stocks in Translation host Jared Blikre outlines the historical periods when both stocks and the dollar fell in tandem.
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The US dollar has been under pressure all year and lately stocks have joined the greenback to the downside as investors try to price in President Trump's tariff policies. I'm Jared Blikre, host of Stocks and Translation. Let's take a look at the greenback here. This is going to be the dollar. There's some interesting things going on. Uh typically, the dollar moves opposite stocks, but not always. And Goldman Sachs just did an analysis and what we're looking at here is uh the dollar gains and loss during different stock market corrections from uh and right here over on the right, we have the fastest one in history. So these are the top 10 fastest corrections. And what you're going to see here, this is a dollar reaction now is to the downside. Here's where we are right now. That is another reaction to the downside. There's one in November '74, but you can see this is an historical anomaly. And here's another list that kind of exemplifies the same thing. There's a lot of data here, but I want you to come away with one takeaway that is very unusual for the dollar and equities to be going in the same direction, especially to the downside for any length of time. Here we see uh that is a present situation. It's been happening for one and a half months. And this goes back to the beginning of the century. So we saw it a couple times in the wake of the .com bust. We saw it a couple times around the global financial crisis, and then around the US debt crisis downgrade in 2011. So you wrap all that together, some interesting things happening. And I want to plot some of the correlations that I've been watching recently. This is a year-to-date chart of the Invesco US dollar ETF, UUP. That's a good dollar proxy. And here we have the Spider S&P 500 ETF, SPY. And what we're seeing here, they've been definitely been going in the same direction, which is down for a little bit of time here. And even if I put on a one-year chart, there is another instance of this that happened around the election last year, actually started a little bit before, where both of them were going up at the same time. There's a number of reasons why they could be doing this. Uh sometimes the dollar goes up because it's in the best position of the world and everything's growing and the US is a leader. Uh other times, things are going badly and people are flocking into the dollar and those are haven flows. And sometimes, and maybe that's now, the US is just not the leader in the world anymore and we're dragging a little bit. Uh I want to go back here and just show you the seasonality for the US dollar index and that is something that is turning bullish right now. So, uh if you've been keeping track of these episodes of this segment here, we turned bullish on Apple yesterday, we turned bullish on stocks in general over the last week, and now we're getting a bullish seasonality call in the US dollar index. So this shows the entire year. The white line is what happens on a median basis going back all the way to 1971 in the US dollar index. And in green, we have what's happened so far this year. It's kind of tracked and you can see we've inflected up a little bit and this is coinciding nicely with this rise that we should in theory have into early April. But you can see from there we get a little bit of pressure and it's not really until later in the year that we get this big updraft, historically speaking, in the dollar. So, all told, it looks like there's uh some bullish things lining up with both the dollar and the stocks and yes, it's unusual, but yes, it can happen as well. So tune into Stocks and Translation for more market decoding deep dives, new episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance's website or wherever you find your podcasts.