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The second Trump administration is nearing the end of its first 100 days (from January 20 to this Tuesday, April 29). The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has fallen 7.9% in that time, among one of the worst market performances in a president's first 100 days.
Morning Brief host Madison Mills compares this figure to the market performance under previous US leadership.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.
It's time now for our chart of the day. Let's send it on over to my co-host, Madison Mills for a look at the S&P 500's performance during President Trump's first 100 days.
Thank you, Brad. So taking a look at the S&P 500 under Trump's first 100 days in office, you can see the S&P down nearly 8% off the back of a lot of uncertainty around the trade war. But how does this pair with history? Well, let's take a look at the best performing first 100 days. FDR in 1933 up 78%. And then you got Biden in 2021 up 10%. Now, really important context here. These were off of huge market crashes. Obviously, you all remember COVID and then of course, a market crash in the early 1930s. So huge recovery and rebound set up for those presidencies. Let's take a look at some of those presidencies though where we saw a little bit more weakness, and I want to really zero in on Ford's presidency. Coming in in 1974, that was after Nixon's resignation, but that environment has a lot of similarities to the environment we're in today. So down 11.8% in Ford's first 100 days. What was going on then? Stagflation. That is the key concern with where we are currently at. Stagflation, of course, is a reminder meaning you have inflation, but you also have slowing growth. Also, in both of these backdrops, you have a Federal Reserve that had higher interest rates. Now, the good thing about that is that the Fed can then cut if there is too much weakness in the economy, but in both cases, because you have that stagflation, meaning higher inflation and slowing growth, it's hard for the Fed to justify cutting because there is that inflationary backdrop. And lastly, guys, I actually want to flip back to the best performers, if we can, for a second, just to remind folks, look at this record breaking rally here. This is why so many sources that we bring on this show remind investors, especially the less active ones and long-term investors, don't lock in your losses. Because if you do, you may be out of the market before you see that double digit rally. Of course, you wouldn't want to miss out on a 78% rally off of a negative year for the market here. Brad.
If only FDR had an Nvidia. Maddie, thanks so much.
Thank you.