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The Trump administration spurring fears of tightening chip trade rules as well, the potential changes adding to those other mounting risks for Nvidia. The chipmaker's also facing pressure tied to custom customer Supermicro computer. Is its last, its revenue profit outlook for the third quarter. Here to decode what's ahead for semiconductors including Nvidia, we've got KeyBanc Capital Markets equity research analyst, John Vinh. John, it is always great to catch up with you, and I want to get your take first on this view of Nvidia here that we're going to continue to see this migration to more customized chips, or contract made chips from the likes of Broadcom. And it does seem like some of the sentiment is piling up against Nvidia here.

Yeah. I think that view is a little bit more premature at this point in time. We think we are still in the very early stages of generative AI, you know, the view that it's a zero-sum game between whether someone's going to go with a custom AI chip, or with a merchant GPU from Nvidia. I, I don't think we're quite there yet. If, if the market starts to mature and we're in the latter innings, then you got to be more mindful about what that split looks like. But at this point, um, you know, it's very early stages and Nvidia is so far ahead of the competition, you know, Broadcom does have a flagship customer in Google's TPU, which is a very competitive chip. But outside of the Google TPU, there are limited proof points out there of another customer having a competitive chip to what Nvidia offers, or what, what Google makes with, with Broadcom.

John, there was another headline that certainly got attention. I want your take on this one. Reuters reported, and this was late yesterday, that Trump officials are working to change a Biden era AI trade rule capping access to US AI chips, potentially making it stricter. I'm wondering, John, listen, you're an Nvidia investor, you read that. What should you make of a headline like that?

Yeah. I think there's certainly a lot of angst around the diffusion rule, right? You know, it's supposed to go into effect in mid-May, I want to say May 17th, May 18th, right? And you know, I think there's, there is, some rightfully consternation around it because what it is, in effect trying to limit, is the ability, or of the US's competitors, or rivals, to get access to Nvidia's GPUs, right? You know, obviously we've got a straight direct ban on China, but we also know that there is a gray market in which our competitors, including Chinese constituents, are able to get access to Nvidia GPUs through other gray market channels by importing them through, through other countries. So, yeah, I think there is some, some angst and consternation in terms of how it kind of plays out is unclear, right? I mean, I'm seeing the same headlines as you that they're reconsidering it, but we'll have to see how it plays out. But it certainly is a concern, and a little bit of a near-term overhang on Nvidia's stock at this point.

So John, bottom line, is Nvidia still a buy, or even more of a buy at these levels after the declines it's seen?

I certainly believe so. The, the valuation is not fully pricing anything in. I think if you look at our numbers, it's trading at less than 20 times earnings, historically. I mean, Nvidia has traded, you know, 35, 45 times, 35 to 40 times. And it's trading at a pretty significant discount. You've got the China chip ban. So we've taken, you know, 12 billion dollars out of our numbers this year, so you could argue that a lot of that is de-risked. Um, so at these levels, it's not pricing in a whole lot and we still believe that they are significantly ahead of their competitors at this point. With this new platform that they're rolling out, GB 200, NVL 72. They have certainly put a lot of room between themselves and their nearest competitors.