In This Article:
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are up over 160% year-to-date, and with the chipmaker's second quarter earnings report due out on Wednesday, August 28, the company has another opportunity to see some major stock movements. Is now the time to buy into Nvidia or will the stock peter out after it recovered from early August sell-offs?
Stifel managing director and applied technology analyst Ruben Roy sits down with the Morning Brief team to give insights into Nvidia's upcoming earnings and what the delay of its Blackwell chip shipments could mean for Nvidia's position in the artificial intelligence trade.
"We absolutely think this is still the best way to play AI," Roy claims. "Nvidia has emerged not only as a compute player in AI, but there's an entire ecosystem built around AI, which includes networking software and, increasingly, AI models themselves. And Nvidia has been building up over the last many years, all of those technologies. And we don't think anyone else is competitive to the extent that Nvidia is."
Ruben, you mentioned it a second ago but there has been some concern about the delay in Blackwell chips and it seems like at least for right now Wall Street many of your colleagues you kind of dismissing maybe how big of a headwind or challenge this could be at least in the short term. What at what point? I guess how long maybe do these chips if they were to get delayed a significant amount of time, at what point do you start to get a little bit more worried about the impact that it could have on Nvidia?
Yeah, it's a good question but there's no simple answer to that question as you can imagine, you know there's there's these are very complicated technologies. It's not just the chip, right? That we're talking about it's not a GPU, it's a system and the system itself has tens of thousands of components working together and then you're building out networks with thousands of these GPU clusters, right? So there's a lot going on here, in my, our experience, the issues that come up and we understand there could be some heat issues and power issues. These are things that typically take months to solve not quarters. When would we start getting a little more concerned? If we're wrong about that and this is actually something that will take more than a few months to solve you know that's that's something that we'd have to kind of go back and reconsider and analyze, but at this point, all of our discussions with supply chain participants, listening to conference calls through like I said the June quarter earnings period would suggest that Blackwell's on track to ship in some significant volume as we look out into the first quarter of 2025. In the meantime, the demand for the Hopper series remains very robust and I think that's what you'll see when Nvidia talks about their July quarter revenues and their October quarter guidance on Wednesday evening.
Ruben, for investors who are just trying to figure out if it seems like Nvidia is still a good investment at this juncture, the post run up post the last 18 months of growth that we've seen and then going to continue to as we expect grow into that valuation. Is this still a ripe investment and what is your kind of thesis or projection about how far this could go in terms of valuation?
So, yes, it's a great question we think we absolutely think this is still the best way to play AI. Nvidia has emerged not only as a compute player in AI but there's a entire ecosystem built around AI which includes networking software and increasingly AI models themselves and and Nvidia has been building up over the last, you know, many years all of those technologies and we don't think anyone else is competitive to the extent that Nvidia is. There are emerging competitors like AMD that are starting to take a little bit of market share but when you look at the overall infrastructure spend cycle and we think this is for the next five to ten years which we think is going to continue to increase. Uh Nvidia appears to us is the best position to benefit from that. So if you believe it in that thesis, we think that as the budgets are going to continue to rise, you know certainly not at the rates that we've seen you know the rise, right? Going from essentially zero dollars in AI related cluster revenues today. You know we're we're thinking that Nvidia is going to do close to 30 billion dollars in data center revenue in October and so the numbers are a lot large numbers are here but we do think again that the profitability of the company will continue to grow up and and and drive the valuation as you mentioned Brad. So if we kind of consider the thesis in those terms, we think that investors that are looking at Nvidia today can still benefit from a long-winded AI infrastructure cycle which we think will last, like I said, over many years. Now having said that are we going to see some volatility along the way certainly, right? There's going to be you know kind of highs and lows with the way this stuff gets rolled out over the next several years but again if we believe that Nvidia is going to be the best positioned beneficiary of the infrastructure spend, I think it's uh, it's solid investment for AI investors.
Ruben Roy, managing director and applied technology analyst at Stifel. Great to see you Ruben, thanks so much for kicking off the show with us.
Thank you.
Follow along with Yahoo Finance's latest coverage of Nvidia ahead of its earnings this week:
Nvidia earnings highlight a busy end of August: What to know this week
Nvidia gets ready to take over the stock market (again)
4 AI terms Nvidia investors should know
Nvidia earnings 'absolutely key to the AI infrastructure trade'
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.
This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino