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Early in the year, Nvidia (NVDA) shares sank on the news of DeepSeek and worries that it could lead to tech giants spending less on AI. That, combined with concerns about export restrictions, has some investors nervous. Find out what Wedbush Securities managing director Matt Bryson thinks about it all in the video above.
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You know to to start the the year Matt, was it true that the stock was struggling? There's different reasons for that. One reason was Deep Seek. and Nvidia executives addressed that. In your opinion, did they did they address that concern to your satisfaction, Matt? Do you think that concern is in the rear view mirror?
I I certainly think it's in the rear view mirror, Josh. So if you look at what actually happened um with Deep Seek, so predominantly a China phenomenon. Deep Seek was driving significantly more demand than expected for AI servers in China. Um and so I I think at the end of the day, um what you saw from Deep Seek was it it was good news for Nvidia. It was more demand. Um so I think that concern is certainly behind them.
Matt, one of the other um reports related to Nvidia that we got today came courtesy of the Financial Times, which said Oracle was planning to spend about $40 billion on Nvidia's GB200 chips um to power OpenAI's new data center. I I I don't know if this is a surprise because if they were building the data center, it was likely they were going to get Nvidia's chips. But um but it does speak to the reliance of Nvidia on spending from the hyperscalers. So what can we expect in terms of cadence with that spending?
Yeah, so you saw earlier Crusoe um also announced that they'd secured funding to build out those facilities. So, and I I think when you look at the news from the Financial Times, let's assume it's accurate. They're talking about GB200 chips. So the the current generation of product, that tells you that's going to come earlier, uh let's call it in the next two, three, four quarters. Um and so from a from a cadence perspective, Julie, I think if it doesn't show up in Q2 um for Nvidia it shows up in Q3, Q4 uh because when you get beyond um Q4, you really start to see GB300, the the next generation of chip becoming the the larger portion of volume out of Nvidia.
Matt, another big question of course top of mind for Nvidia investors was the AI boom and whether Big Tech would continue to invest so much in that boom. You heard those last earnings reports, Matt, you know, from Meta and Microsoft and Alphabet and and when they talked about their capex guides, they they remain confident. I'm just curious when you look past 2025, Matt, you try to look in 2026, what do you see AI spending looking like from from the hyperscalers?
Yeah, so it's it's hard to peg how much hyperscale growth there will be in 2026, and that's always that's always kind of been the question, right? Can we continue to see the the large clouds grow their spend like we've seen the the last few years. Um the difference this time I think, um and I think your prior guest talked to this, we have all this incremental additional spend coming from uh these these projects that are outside the hyperscalers. Um so in particular the sovereign deals we've got uh both Saudi Arabia and UAE and remember that I believe it was the UAE number in terms of chips that was larger than the amount of product that Oracle is supposedly buying. Um so these large deals are really additive and and I don't see the cloud stepping away. Um the last thing I'd add there is, so one of the concerns has simply been that applications aren't going to show up. I I think when you see Open AI go out and spend uh the significant amount amount of money they did on Johnny Ive startup, that tells you that there are edge products that are getting close to being ready. And I think those edge products are going to be AI driven and again, um at the end of the day, that ends up creating growth for AI silicon like Nvidia produces.