In This Article:
Nvidia's (NVDA) first quarter results beat on revenue, but a $4.5B charge tied to its H20 chip complicates the picture.
Synovus Trust senior portfolio manager Daniel Morgan joins Asking for a Trend to break down the numbers and what they mean for Nvidia's outlook in China and beyond.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.
Well, in video reporting better than expected first quarter revenue. Earnings, depending on which metric you look at, missed estimates when including that 4 and a half billion dollar charge and related tax impact related to the H20 chip. So, if you look at and include the impact of that charge, you get 81 cents a share. If you exclude the charge from H20, you get 96 cents a share. The consensus estimate was 93. The stock is performing as though there was a beat somewhere in there. So let's get a closer look now at the key catalyst for Nvidia and the big tech landscape. Let's bring in Sunova's Trust senior portfolio manager, Daniel Morgan. Daniel Morgan, it is lovely to see you. Thank you so much for joining us. Um so what do you think of these numbers? Uh uh you know, as we are seeing this initial reaction and as we await the call?
Really. You know, Julie and Josh, I think you need to be a CPA to interpret these numbers and come up with a picture of exactly what's going on. I mean, I think the things that really stood out is what you guys talked about, which is, I think what the street is doing, they're kind of netting out the H20 charge off, right? It was what a 4.5 billion inventory charge off. They said on the call or their in their notes that they missed out on 2.5 billion in revenue on the first quarter, and on the second quarter, they missed out on about 8 billion related to the H20. That would be revenue they could have accrued, you know, they had it ready to ship, but they couldn't do it. So I think maybe that's why the street is reacting the way they are because obviously the guide going in the second quarter Josh was 45 billion. Street was looking for 46 and a half billion, so it's a little bit off. But then if we add in that 8 billion, right? Wow, it's you know, it's over 50 billion, right? So, uh again, I think you need to be a CPA to kind of get through these numbers. And that gross margin number two, right? Without the charge you're at 71%. With it you're at 61%. So pick your pick your number, right?
Well, Dan, I'm not a CPA, but fortunately, I have you to help me try and make sense of all this. I'm wondering Dan, if I'm an in Nvidia investor, I'm listening to this right now. How should I be thinking Dan about what that opportunity for this company is in China, not just now, but long term? How would you frame it?
Well, you're right, Josh, and the opportunity is still there. I mean, there's a lot of thought out there that they're going to do a streamline Blackwell chip and they're going to sell that into China once they can get it approved, uh you know, by the the Trump administration. Very similar what they did when they did the scaled downs on the H20 and the L40. So I don't think China's off the map, right? I mean, they at one point we're getting, you know, 15, 20% of their revenues coming from China. So, but you know, the other thing, Josh and Julie, is kind of interesting and you know, just to kind of take a step back from this minutia of this report, you know, think about some of the things that they may have going on, let's say in Saudi Arabia or Middle East. We know that's now been opened up more for trade. There was a big order that came in for 18,000 GPUs that's going to be executed here. So even if China never gets back to the way it was before, I still think that there's long-term opportunities in other parts of the world, like Saudi Arabia, like the Middle East, because now we're opening up relations with them, and we're going to become more involved with them in terms of trade.