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US stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) closed Wednesday's trading session in the red, but remain not too far from their recent record highs. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management managing director Dan Skelly joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss how investors can navigate the current market and some of the volatility that lies ahead.
"When you look at what's happened over the last six weeks or so, it's, in our view, as if the technicals took the market down the elevator quite quickly a few weeks ago. And then some reaffirmation of the soft landing and the fundamental broadening out of earnings power across not just tech, but the rest of the market, has actually taken the market back up the elevator," Skelly explains.
Moving forward, he expects the theme of broadening out to continue. However, the election could cause volatility as there is an overall mixed picture on its outcome. He says, "while some folks are trying to put together an election-related narrative and how that pertains to the markets, I think the market is saying actually one of two things. One, the market is saying this is going to be a lot closer election than a lot of people may be thinking, and there's no real conclusion to draw as of now. And I agree with that personally. And then secondly, the market is really paying attention to the fundamental economic data."
and here we are, we had a bit of a pullback today, but the major averages are not too far from their recent record highs. Are you seeing support for risk assets? Or, or, or where are you seeing, I, I guess that next leg higher? What is going to drive that leadership?
So it's such an important question. And stepping back, when you look at what's happened over the last six weeks or so, it's, in our view, uh, as if the technicals took the market down the elevator quite quickly a few weeks ago, and then some reaffirmation of the soft landing and the fundamental broadening out of earnings power across, not just tech, but the rest of the market, has actually taken the market back up the elevator. So we had a massive move down and a fairly quick rebound. And all we would say is that we think, in terms of what's next, is more along the lines of this broadening out. We've been talking about this theme for a few months now, and you are starting to see that breadth indicators start to improve.
Dan, I'm curious, you know, get in video after the close today, after that report. And what's the next big data point you'd be watching? Would it be that jobs report?
Sure, we're going to look at jobs. We're going to look at, uh, more evidence that the weakish jobs number we saw, uh, uh, a month ago or so, was more weather related. I think the jobless claims, high frequency data, we've seen in the last several weeks, and some of the state level data, have already corroborated that story that it was kind of a one-off, weather related, hurricane related, uh, miss several weeks ago. So absolutely, Josh, we're going to pay attention to that. And we're also going to pay attention to what companies are saying as we all come back from Labor Day. It's really conference season. And across a host of conferences, we're going to hear company updates, uh, in, in terms of what they're seeing, uh, in this current quarter.
And, and, Dan, even looking past, uh, some of the events here over the next couple of weeks, looking ahead to November election. I know you're closely following this, maybe what exactly some of the new policies, depending on who is elected in the White House. Maybe what that is going to tell us about the disinflation story, or lack thereof. What are some of the things that you're watching? And is that Goldilocks narrative at risk?
Listen, it's a great question. I would just, taking a step back, I would just highlight upfront that a lot of folks had seen the red sweep odds going up after the debate. Um, but of course, at the same time, you saw the long end of the yield curve coming down. Uh, and that was based off of what had been declining economic data at the time and certainly consistently weaker inflation data. And so while some folks are trying to put together, uh, an, an election related narrative and how that pertains to the, uh, the markets, I think the markets is saying, uh, actually one of two things. One, the markets saying this is going to be a lot closer election than a lot of people may be thinking and there's no real conclusion to draw as of now. And I agree with that personally. And then secondly, the market's really paying attention to the fundamental economic data. So look, I think to answer your question, it's certainly a mixed picture. I think in the red sweep od, the red sweep scenario, there is some chance that some of the fiscal expansion, some of the trade and tariff policy, uh, injects another, uh, twist to the Goldilocks story. But I think we're going to have to wait and, and find out.
All right, Dan Suzuki. Great to have you here. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us as we close out the trading day.
Thank you.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime.
This post was written by Melanie Riehl