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Market lows of the year may be behind us, strategist says

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Stocks (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) are up off recent lows, and key technical signals suggest that may have marked the bottom for the year.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, joins Market Domination to explain why indicators like the Zweig Breadth Thrust and strong credit markets support a more bullish outlook.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here.

00:00 Speaker A

You say something interesting, Ryan, and I want to start here. You say, "You know what? The lows of the year could now be in." That's what you're telling your clients, Ryan. How come? Walk me through that. I'm curious. What are the What are the indicators you're watching?

00:17 Ryan

Yeah, thank you for having me, guys. There's so much to talk about here, so we'll see if we can get it all out there. Um, you know, when you think about it, we're up like 14% or so off those lows that we hit a couple weeks ago. But just last week, right? I I'm sure you had some other guests point some of these things out, but I'm gonna go over them again. We had that Zweig breadth thrust. What in the world is that? It's It's how many stocks go up versus down on the NYSE. What we're looking for is a 10-day EMA super oversold and then super overbought within a 2-week period. I know that's a mouthful. Just think like this: really oversold to really overbought short term. It triggered last Thursday. Where this matters for the listeners and viewers, S&P's been higher a year later since World War II 19 out of 19 times, six months later higher 19 out of 19 times. I mean, that's just one indicator, but that's pretty positive. I'll give you one more, then we can talk a little more. S&P was up 1.5% 3 days in a row last week. I believe it was Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. One year after that, it's only happened 10 times. If there were more, I'd I'd share, but only 10 times. One year later, higher. 10 times, up well over 20%. There's other stuff we can get into, but I think last week we had multiple buying thrusts that potentially suggest again the lows are in, and that doesn't mean it's going to be easy. I mean, we're not going to go straight up. We'll be very clear there. But the lows of the year are likely in here.

02:36 Speaker B

So, Ryan, I know you love to talk technical indicators, but I got to ask you a question about the fundamentals too, which is, in order for stocks to not just bump along here, but to actually move meaningfully higher, um, what would need to happen from a fundamental perspective?

03:18 Ryan

Yeah, I mean, I wish I had a really smart answer, but I think it's as simple as trade. We need to see more uh concrete news out of trade, and we think we're inching closer to that, Julie. I mean, earnings season hasn't been great. Uh, you played like a uh I guess a clip of a previous guest right before I came on talking about this. The MAG 7's coming up, right? I mean, what do they see in the future here? What are they feeling? I mean, Google did a pretty I guess it's called Alphabet now. Alphabet did a pretty good job with what they had to say. What are the rest of them going to say? But at the end of the day, it does come down to trade. Now, one more thing on the economy, and I know I've talked to you guys about this a lot the last few months. When we look at credit spreads, like investment-grade corporate spreads and triple-B spreads, keep this real simple, well, we were saying the credit markets were never really worried. I know the market was down in a bear market. I know the MAG 7 was down 30, 40%. We get all that. But the credit markets have never shown major, major stress, and that can change in a hurry. I get it. But that's a sign to us that, you know, you can have bear markets without recessions. We've pretty much just had one. We've had them before, we'll have them again. And that's again why we think, yeah, credit market, smartest guys in the room, we think uh that's a sign that the rest of this year stocks are going to bounce back pretty nicely.