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Gargi Chaudhuri, BlackRock Americas chief investment and portfolio strategist, joins Morning Brief hosts Brad Smith and Seana Smith to discuss how investors should position themselves amid the rate-cutting cycle and ahead of the election.
The strategist explains that the market “backdrop is really great, especially for those investors looking to earn income in the fixed-income market… In the belly of the curve, go into the income-generating parts of the market, such as securitized assets, such as defensive high yield, such as parts of emerging markets.”
Chaudhuri notes that recent normalization in the labor market and other aspects of the economy is not a reason for investors to fret. She says, “I want investors to understand that this is normal. This isn't something that they should be worried about or scared of. They should continue to remain invested.”
“We love leaning into quality call as a way of expressing that view and then broadening out to value, especially to large-cap value where we think we're going to see a little bit of performance return, especially as we go into these last three months,” she adds. Chaudhuri tells Yahoo Finance that when looking for a quality company, she watches for consistent strong earnings growth, the ability to generate ample cash flow, and low leverage.
What does the rate falling environment or new rate policy environment signal for some of the investment strategy that investors would be apt to proceed with?
Absolutely. So with the backdrop of the strong growth, especially the one we saw this morning with growth still remaining at 3%, maybe slowing down a little bit in the last half of the year, but still remaining very robust and above potential. We have this dynamic where the Fed is stepping in, cutting rates 50 basis point, obviously last week, but telling us that they will do more if required to prevent the economy from slowing down further. That backdrop is really great, especially for those investors looking to earn income in the fixed income market. So that is what we're highlighting in our full outlook. Clip coupon in the belly of the curve, go into the income generating parts of the market, such as securitized assets, such as defensive high yield, such as parts of emerging market, because that is where you're going to earn the income and this is a great time to step out of cash and earn that income.
Gargi, when you talk about the fact that your base case here is really was the economy to slow. I, I guess to what degree then should investors, when they're trying to figure out the best opportunities within the market, should they be prepared for more volatility? I guess is that then up the risk that we could see some sort of shocks down the line and then ultimately that could obviously trickle through here to the markets.
Honestly, when I say slow, what I mean is that we got used to an environment of 4%, 3% growth. When we say slow, and we saw this from the Fed's own statement of economic projections, coming down to sort of a level of around 2%. Slow does not mean that we're talking about getting down to negative levels or anything that resembles a slowing down in recessionary terms. This just means more moderation, similar to what we've seen in the labor market, where obviously we're beginning to see job growth coming in in the hundreds of thousands instead of the 2, 300,000. I want investors to understand that this is normal. This isn't something that they should be worried about or scared of. They should continue to remain invested, look at the higher quality parts of the equity markets. We love leaning into quality core as a way of expressing that view and then broadening out to value, especially to large cap value, where we think we're going to see a little bit of performance return, especially as we go in to these last three months.
Gargi, entertain my, my, my question here for a hot second. What are the characteristics of a quality company from your perspective and evaluation?
Absolutely. So the three things that we're looking at right now as it comes to quality companies and large cap companies that we like is number one, having that very strong earnings growth, continuing to have consistent strong earnings growth. Number two, having the ability to generate ample cash flow, which is really important, especially if we slow down just a little bit. Number three, being very cognizant of the debt, the leverage. So having low leverage is another thing that separates a higher to a lower quality company. One of the things that we've talked a little bit about in our fall investment directions is this idea that small caps perhaps are not going to have that sustained performance. They can have periods of outperformance, but not the sustained performance and large caps and quality is where we think we're going to see a little bit of a better performance into the remainder of the year.
Gargi, while we have you, um, between now and the remainder and the end of the year, we've got a big election event here and it's been a massive year for elections around the world, but here in the US, it seems like there's not been a more polarizing time. So for investors that are trying to really figure out how businesses are navigating this and make sure that their portfolio perhaps has the best bipartisan policy in their own strategy, how do they effectively go about doing that regardless of what the outcome looks like, making sure that they're positioned well.
Absolutely and thank you for that question because clients across the US are asking us about, you know, what should we do, how should we invest going into the elections. So couple of things that we lay out here is number one, keep politics out of your portfolio. So think about the areas of the market that will do regardless of what happens in November, January 2025, thinking about infrastructure as a great way of playing that. We think infrastructure can continue to do well regardless of who's in power. Thinking about manufacturing as a way, especially US manufacturing, thinking about the importance of independence of technology, tech independence so important, regardless of who's in the White House. If you are concerned about volatility going into the elections, which maybe some investors are, do not go back into cash. Think about ways in which you can protect your downside with things like buffered strategies, such as Max J or things like minimal volatility strategies, such as USMV that allow you to stay invested, but preserve your downside. So stay invested, step out of cash. We understand that you might be feeling some nervousness about the elections, but keep politics out of your portfolio with some bipartisan ways that we lay out.
Gargi, always great to have you. Thanks so much for hopping on with us here this morning and kicking things off.
Ahead of the election, Chaudhuri tells investors, “Think about the areas of the market that will do regardless of what happens in November or January 2025… We understand that you might be nervous about the elections, but keep politics out of your portfolio.” She highlights infrastructure, manufacturing, and independent tech as opportunities for bipartisan plays.
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This post was written by Naomi Buchanan.