How July's soft jobs data could trigger a series of rate cuts

In this article:

The July jobs report missed expectations, with only 114,000 jobs created, falling short of the 175,000 forecasted. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, and Janus Henderson Investors head of Americas equities Marc Pinto join Morning Brief to discuss what this report means for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Pinto notes that the uptick in the unemployment rate "is not that surprising." He explains that an estimated 200,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the unemployment rate stable, and with the print far below that, "it's gonna take more jobs per month to keep that rate steady." Regarding the Fed's next move, Pinto believes this print increases the probability of two rate cuts in 2024.

Brusuelas states that this jobs print "guarantees you're gonna get a 25 basis point cut" in September. He predicts that three cuts could materialize, starting in September and continuing at every meeting for the remainder of 2024. "There's a lot on the table, but I think the primary takeaway is [the] labor market's normalizing," he told Yahoo Finance.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Advertisement